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Virtus BolognaTrieste

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 19:002 Nov, 19:00

10Probabilities2Priced2Edges83.6%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Unbeaten in Lega A but coming off two EuroLeague home defeats and a short turnaround, Virtus Bologna host a Trieste side that has had about eight days' rest.

Virtus are the likely winners, and the second quarter is where the prices offer something: Virtus to win it at 1.61 and Virtus over 22.5 points in it at 1.66.

Context

A clear league leader against a mid-table visitor, but Virtus carry a short turnaround after EuroLeague defeats while Trieste arrive well rested, keeping the margin uncertain.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

2nd Quarter ResultUncertainty band: Strong lean

Virtus Bologna

1.61fair 1.47

Market 62.1% · BetBugs 67.9%

+5.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Virtus have dominated Lega A and score heavily at home, while Trieste's road scoring has been in the low 80s; the rebounding edge and last h2h in Bologna support a home score in the mid-90s and an away score in the low-to-mid 80s.

2nd Quarter Team PointsUncertainty band: Lean

Virtus Bologna over 22.5

1.66fair 1.56

Market 60.2% · BetBugs 64.3%

+4.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Virtus have dominated Lega A and score heavily at home, while Trieste's road scoring has been in the low 80s; the rebounding edge and last h2h in Bologna support a home score in the mid-90s and an away score in the low-to-mid 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 83.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna win in about 84 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · Match WinnerVirtus BolognaEstimated chance83.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultVirtus BolognaEstimated chance74.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Virtus Bologna and 15 for Trieste, across seasons and competitions.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapVirtus Bologna +0.5Estimated chance72.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.61
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultVirtus BolognaMarket price1.61Estimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultVirtus BolognaEstimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultVirtus BolognaEstimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna cover -4.5 in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapVirtus Bologna -4.5Estimated chance59.7%

Points3 outcomes · top 64.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.66
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Virtus Bologna score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsVirtus Bologna over 22.5Market price1.66Estimated chance64.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointsOver 43.5Estimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Virtus Bologna 95.5, Trieste 83.1. Trieste score fewer than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Virtus are 5-0 in Lega A through 25 Oct 2026, averaging 97.4 points scored and 84.2 allowed; at home in the league they scored 108 vs Scafati (18 Oct) and 98 vs Roma (4 Oct).
- Trieste are 2-3 in Lega A, averaging 89.0 points scored and 85.2 allowed over five games; away from home they scored 84 at Varese (10 Oct) and 79 at Milano (27 Sep).
- In the latest meeting in Bologna, Virtus beat Trieste 95-81 on 26 Apr 2026.
- Across 15 games this season/all competitions, Virtus average 35.5 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers; Trieste average 31.2 rebounds and 11.4 turnovers.
- Trieste shoot 56.6% on twos and 34.1% on threes over 15 games, slightly above Virtus' 55.7% and 32.9%, though Virtus have a higher free-throw rate (37.2% vs 31.5%).
- Virtus have about 3 days rest after a 30 Oct EuroLeague game; Trieste have about 8 days rest after 25 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsTrieste under 21.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotNov 1, 21:01

Selected line

179.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 180+ points

4 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 179.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W95–81

Virtus Bolognav Trieste

Trieste

Apr 26, 2026·LEG

W66–74

Triestev

Virtus Bologna

Dec 29, 2025·LEG

L85–78

Triestev

Virtus Bologna

Mar 22, 2025·LEG

L70–78

Virtus Bolognav Trieste

Trieste

Dec 15, 2024·LEG

L80–78

Triestev

Virtus Bologna

Apr 2, 2023·LEG

W85–80

Virtus Bolognav Trieste

Trieste

Oct 9, 2022·LEG

W81–92

Triestev

Virtus Bologna

Apr 2, 2022·LEG

W94–79

Virtus Bolognav Trieste

Trieste

Oct 16, 2021·LEG

W81–67

Virtus Bolognav Trieste

Trieste

Apr 11, 2021·LEG

W60–77

Triestev

Virtus Bologna

Dec 13, 2020·LEG

158.1Avg total points

10.1Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Virtus Bologna

5–0100%

Trieste

2–340%

Recent Form

Virtus Bologna

9W 6L · last 15

vs Besiktas101–103 Oct 30EUR

vs Zalgiris Kaunas74–91 Oct 28EUR

at Olimpia Milano98–94 OTOct 25LEG

at Hapoel Tel Aviv81–90 Oct 21EUR

vs Scafati108–83 Oct 18LEG

vs Baskonia86–78 Oct 16EUR

at Paris96–94 Oct 14EUR

at Venezia93–86 Oct 11LEG

at Bayern94–87 Oct 8EUR

vs Maxima Roma98–89 Oct 4LEG

vs Olympiacos96–94 Oct 1EUR

at Olimpia Milano85–87 Sep 29EUR

at Varese90–69 Sep 27LEG

at Fenerbahce68–78 Sep 25EUR

at Olimpia Milano71–80 Sep 19LEG

Trieste

5W 10L · last 15

vs Verona108–99 Oct 25LEG

vs Cantu92–72 Oct 18LEG

at Varese84–85 Oct 10LEG

vs Venezia82–87 Oct 4LEG

at Olimpia Milano79–83 Sep 27LEG

at Brescia75–90 May 25LEG

vs Brescia83–77 May 23LEG

vs Brescia80–84 May 21LEG

at Brescia82–90 May 18LEG

at Brescia92–90 May 16LEG

vs Cremona89–94 May 10LEG

at Olimpia Milano78–86 May 3LEG

at Virtus Bologna81–95 Apr 26LEG

vs Brescia82–86 Apr 19LEG

at Udine89–70 Apr 12LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Virtus Bologna

Stats

2–3

Trieste

Trieste leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.9pp

55.7%

+0.9pp

56.6%

3-point %+1.2pp

32.9%

+1.2pp

34.1%

Free-throw %9/15 games+3.5pp

79.4%

+3.5pp

75.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.3pp apart

30.0%

7.3pp apart

37.3%

Free throws per shot9/15 games5.7pp apart

37.2%

5.7pp apart

31.5%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+4.3

35.5

+4.3

31.2

Turnovers per game1.6 fewer

13.0

1.6 fewer

11.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.