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South East MelbourneTasmania JackJumpers

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 04:001 Nov, 04:00

10Probabilities1Priced2Edges73.1%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

South East Melbourne have had a week's rest; Tasmania played on 30 October and have Gold and Johnson reported as longer-term absences.

The Phoenix should win by roughly eight points. At 1.85 South East Melbourne giving 4.5 points is worth backing, and their team total over 97.5 at 1.92 holds too; under 97.5 at 1.86 does not.

Context

South East Melbourne last played on 24 October and Tasmania on 30 October, a 7.8-day against 1.8-day gap, and the visitors have Ben Gold and David Johnson reported for extended absences. The home side's five home games produced 99.2 points scored and 92.6 conceded.

Gold had already missed around two weeks of practice when Roth discussed the foot issue on 30 October. The expected shutdown removes a Tasmania rotation option ahead of the Phoenix game and may narrow the visitors' available combinations. His Sunday status has not been confirmed.
- Scott Roth said Ben Gold would be shut down for a while with a foot problem.
- Gold had not practised for about two weeks by 30 October.
Roth described Johnson's calf issue as a longer-term absence on 30 October. Tasmania may need to continue without him against South East Melbourne, placing greater importance on the remaining available rotation. His Sunday status has not been confirmed.
- Scott Roth said David Johnson's calf injury would keep him out for quite a while.
Deng remained unavailable for the Sydney game on 30 October, extending an absence that had already reached seven matches. Roth did not offer a return timetable, so his status is still unresolved for the Phoenix fixture.
- Majok Deng was listed out for Tasmania's 30 October game after missing the previous seven matches.
- Scott Roth gave no update on Deng's status on 30 October.
Morin's move into the starting group has come with a more prominent defensive brief. He expects a physical contest and has identified the work against Tasmania's bigs as his responsibility. His ability to hold that assignment while providing screens is a relevant frontline factor in this meeting.
- Yannis Morin had recently entered South East Melbourne's starting lineup.
- Morin said his defensive focus is making opposing bigs uncomfortable and setting strong screens.
- Morin said the defensive task against Tasmania's bigs is on him.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicapUncertainty band: Lean

South East Melbourne -4.5

1.85fair 1.63

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 61.5%

+7.4ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne cover -4.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. South East Melbourne has the fresher legs and stronger home scoring, while Tasmania is on a short turnaround and may be missing two rotation players. Tasmania's defense should keep it competitive, but I see the home side winning by roughly eight.

Team PointsUncertainty band: Slight lean

South East Melbourne over 97.5

1.92fair 1.76

Market 52.1% · BetBugs 56.7%

+4.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne score more than 97.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this. South East Melbourne has the fresher legs and stronger home scoring, while Tasmania is on a short turnaround and may be missing two rotation players. Tasmania's defense should keep it competitive, but I see the home side winning by roughly eight.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 73.1%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne win in about 73 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Tasmania JackJumpers, across seasons and competitions.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapSouth East Melbourne +2.5Estimated chance71.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne cover -4.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · HandicapSouth East Melbourne -4.5Market price1.85Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne cover -1.5 in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapSouth East Melbourne -1.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance57.6%

Points3 outcomes · top 67.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. The 3rd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Tasmania JackJumpers, across seasons and competitions.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 43.5Estimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. Tasmania JackJumpers score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Tasmania JackJumpers, across seasons and competitions.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsTasmania JackJumpers under 24.5Estimated chance64.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 98.7, Tasmania JackJumpers 90.9. South East Melbourne score more than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Tasmania JackJumpers, across seasons and competitions.
- Through nine NBL games to 30 Oct 2026, South East Melbourne average 97.8 points scored and 93.9 conceded; Tasmania average 95.3 and 91.0.
- At home this season South East Melbourne have scored 99.2 and conceded 92.6 per game over five games, including a 108-94 win over Adelaide on 24 Oct.
- Tasmania have played three away games in 2026-27, averaging 106.0 scored and 101.3 conceded, though one was an overtime game at Brisbane on 3 Oct.
- South East Melbourne shoot 55.6% on two-pointers and turn it over 9.7 times per game over 15 tracked matches; Tasmania shoot 51.8% on twos and turn it over 11.1 times over 14-15 matches.
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played on 24 Oct (7.8 days), Tasmania on 30 Oct (1.8 days).
- Tasmania coach Scott Roth said on 30 Oct that Ben Gold (foot) would be shut down and David Johnson (calf) faces an extended absence; both are reported, not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsSouth East Melbourne over 22.5Estimated chance63.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 31, 04:24

Selected line

189.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 190+ points

2 pp below break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 189.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L96–91

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Sep 21, 2026·NBL

W120–104

South East Melbournev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Feb 14, 2026·NBL

L87–84

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Dec 29, 2025·NBL

L81–89

South East Melbournev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Dec 10, 2025·NBL

W102–103

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Nov 6, 2025·NBL

W116–80

South East Melbournev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Jan 25, 2025·NBL

W91–105

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Jan 5, 2025·NBL

W77–79

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Nov 1, 2024·NBL

L67–94

South East Melbournev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Feb 10, 2024·NBL

W77–85

Tasmania JackJumpersv

South East Melbourne

Dec 25, 2023·NBL

182.8Avg total points

12Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

South East Melbourne

4–544%

Tasmania JackJumpers

6–367%

Recent Form

South East Melbourne

7W 8L · last 15

vs Adelaide108–94 Oct 24NBL

vs Cairns Taipans115–83 Oct 17NBL

at Brisbane Bullets105–115 Oct 15NBL

vs Melbourne United99–104 Oct 10NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks113–96 Oct 4NBL

at Perth88–92 Oct 2NBL

vs Melbourne United61–86 Sep 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers91–96 Sep 21NBL

at Perth100–79 Sep 19NBL

at Adelaide96–108 Mar 17NBL

vs Adelaide101–92 Mar 14NBL

at Adelaide97–104 Mar 10NBL

vs Perth111–94 Mar 4NBL

at Melbourne United91–95 Feb 19NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers120–104 Feb 14NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

8W 7L · last 15

vs Sydney68–71 Oct 30NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets106–85 Oct 21NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers98–92 Oct 18NBL

vs Adelaide88–94 Oct 16NBL

at Illawarra Hawks122–112 Oct 9NBL

at Brisbane Bullets109–99 OTOct 3NBL

vs Melbourne United84–82 Oct 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans87–93 Sep 23NBL

vs South East Melbourne96–91 Sep 21NBL

at Melbourne United68–82 Mar 5NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks70–103 Feb 18NBL

at South East Melbourne104–120 Feb 14NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets114–70 Feb 6NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers91–89 Feb 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans93–96 OTJan 30NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

South East Melbourne

Stats

4–1

Tasmania JackJumpers

South East Melbourne leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %15/14 games+3.8pp

55.6%

+3.8pp

51.8%

3-point %15/14 games+1.5pp

32.6%

+1.5pp

34.1%

Free-throw %15/14 games+1.6pp

77.6%

+1.6pp

76.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s15/14 games6.7pp apart

37.1%

6.7pp apart

30.4%

Free throws per shot15/14 games11.1pp apart

26.2%

11.1pp apart

37.3%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game15/14 games+1.2

36.1

+1.2

34.9

Turnovers per game1.4 fewer

9.7

1.4 fewer

11.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.