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Puerto MonttLeones Quilpue

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 22:301 Nov, 22:30

10Probabilities0Priced1Edges73.9%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

Read first

Leones Quilpue bring a 12-3 last-15 run and a 75-54 win over Puerto Montt on Oct 10 into a back-to-back for both teams, with an expected score of 82.8-74.7 in Leones' favour after 40 minutes.

Leones are the likely winner, but the 1.1 prices on them after 40 minutes and for the full game do not justify backing. The one positive-value quote is Puerto Montt to lead after the first quarter at 2.99.

Context

Leones Quilpue have won 12 of their last 15 LNB games and beat Puerto Montt 75-54 on Oct 10, while Puerto Montt have lost three straight; both teams played on Oct 31, leaving under a day between games.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter ResultUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Puerto Montt

2.99fair 2.73

Market 33.4% · BetBugs 36.6%

+3.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Puerto Montt are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 37 of 100 games like this. Leones Quilpue have the stronger season profile, better shooting and a recent 21-point win over Puerto Montt, but Puerto Montt are at home and both teams are on a back-to-back, so the expected margin stays near single digits.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result3 outcomes · top 73.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Leones Quilpue win in about 74 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerLeones QuilpueEstimated chance73.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Puerto Montt cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Puerto Montt and 15 for Leones Quilpue, across seasons and competitions.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapPuerto Montt +5.5Estimated chance69.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Leones Quilpue are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultLeones QuilpueEstimated chance66%

Points7 outcomes · top 72.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 34.5 points in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Puerto Montt and 15 for Leones Quilpue, across seasons and competitions.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 34.5Estimated chance72.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Puerto Montt score more than 15.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Puerto Montt and 15 for Leones Quilpue, across seasons and competitions.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsPuerto Montt over 15.5Estimated chance72.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Puerto Montt score more than 70.5 points (overtime included) in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · Team PointsPuerto Montt over 70.5Estimated chance66.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. The 1st half has more than 74.5 points in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointsOver 74.5Estimated chance66.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Leones Quilpue score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Puerto Montt and 15 for Leones Quilpue, across seasons and competitions.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsLeones Quilpue over 18.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. The game has more than 152.5 points (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · Total PointsOver 152.5Estimated chance63.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Puerto Montt 74.7, Leones Quilpue 82.8. Leones Quilpue score more than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Puerto Montt and 15 for Leones Quilpue, across seasons and competitions.
- Leones Quilpue are 12-3 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 83.7 points scored and 72.5 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt are 7-8 in their last 15 LNB games, averaging 78.1 points scored and 79.3 allowed through Oct 31, 2026.
- Puerto Montt have lost their last three games, scoring 75, 72 and 70 points from Oct 20-31, 2026.
- In the most recent head-to-head on Oct 10, 2026, Leones Quilpue beat Puerto Montt 75-54.
- Over 15 games this season, Leones shoot 52.3% on two-pointers and 35.9% on three-pointers, while Puerto Montt shoot 49.1% and 30.9%.
- Both teams played on Oct 31, 2026 and will have less than one day of rest; Leones are 11-2 in the Clausura Winners table, Puerto Montt 6-7.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsLeones Quilpue over 19.5Estimated chance61.9%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotNov 1, 21:00

Selected line

152.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

63%

Chance of 153+ points

+8 pp above break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 63%.

Move the line main 152.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 63%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 37%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L75–54

Leones Quilpuev

Puerto Montt

Oct 10, 2026·LNB

L60–94

Puerto Monttv

Leones Quilpue

Mar 17, 2024·LNB

L97–47

Leones Quilpuev

Puerto Montt

Mar 8, 2024·LNB

L85–71

Leones Quilpuev

Puerto Montt

Apr 9, 2023·LNB

L76–91

Puerto Monttv

Leones Quilpue

Jan 30, 2023·LNB

L80–84

Puerto Monttv

Leones Quilpue

Mar 13, 2022·LNB

L88–84

Leones Quilpuev

Puerto Montt

Jan 8, 2022·LNBOT

W83–94

Leones Quilpuev

Puerto Montt

Feb 1, 2020·LNB

W88–67

Puerto Monttv

Leones Quilpue

Dec 14, 2019·LNB

L92–115

Puerto Monttv

Leones Quilpue

Jan 5, 2018·LNB

162.5Avg total points

19.7Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LNB

#TeamW–LWin %

Puerto Montt

LNB - Apertura · South

4–833%

Leones Quilpue

LNB - Apertura · South

8–467%

Recent Form

Puerto Montt

8W 7L · last 15

vs Espanol Osorno75–82 Oct 31LNB

at Valdivia72–88 Oct 25LNB

vs Valdivia70–81 Oct 20LNB

at Espanol Osorno79–67 Oct 17LNB

vs Puente Alto86–72 Oct 15LNB

at Puente Alto79–86 Oct 11LNB

at Leones Quilpue54–75 Oct 10LNB

vs Ancud93–80 Oct 4LNB

vs U. De Concepcion87–92 Oct 2LNB

at U. De Concepcion59–87 Sep 27LNB

at Ancud94–83 Sep 24LNB

vs CD Puerto Varas82–78 Sep 16LNB

at CD Puerto Varas81–68 Sep 15LNB

at Colo Colo86–84 OTSep 6LNB

vs Colo Colo74–67 Sep 3LNB

Leones Quilpue

13W 2L · last 15

at CD Puerto Varas86–61 Oct 31LNB

at Ancud91–81 Oct 29LNB

at U. De Concepcion64–89 Oct 25LNB

vs Puente Alto90–66 Oct 23LNB

vs Puerto Montt75–54 Oct 10LNB

vs CD Puerto Varas98–84 Oct 8LNB

vs Ancud85–75 Oct 7LNB

vs Espanol Osorno81–61 Oct 1LNB

vs Valdivia78–65 Oct 1LNB

at Espanol Osorno89–67 Sep 27LNB

at Valdivia77–92 Sep 26LNB

at Puente Alto87–75 Sep 17LNB

vs U. De Concepcion79–72 Sep 15LNB

at Catolica79–76 Aug 18LNB

vs Espanol de Talca96–69 Aug 16LNB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Puerto Montt

Stats

0–4

Leones Quilpue

Leones Quilpue leads in 4 of 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+3.2pp

49.1%

+3.2pp

52.3%

3-point %+5.0pp

30.9%

+5.0pp

35.9%

Free-throw %+3.7pp

66.1%

+3.7pp

69.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s8.0pp apart

32.9%

8.0pp apart

40.9%

Free throws per shot3.2pp apart

24.8%

3.2pp apart

28.0%

Possession· 0–1

Rebounds per game+0.3

36.5

+0.3

36.8

Turnovers per game—

13.1

—

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.