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Joventut BadalonaBilbao

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 11:001 Nov, 11:00

10Probabilities1Priced1Edges71%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

Read first

Joventut Badalona host Bilbao with the home side the likely winner: the 40-minute expectation is Joventut 94.2 points, Bilbao 87.2 points, and Joventut are ahead after 40 minutes in about 69 of 100 games like this.

Bilbao's better league record and 80-76 win in the last meeting are the counterweights. At 1.85, over 86.5 combined first-half points is the one quoted price that offers value.

Context

Joventut's six home games this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed; Bilbao's four away games through 28 October averaged 94.3 scored and 101.3 allowed. That scoring contrast frames the matchup, while a possible Joventut debut for Nikola Radičević remains unconfirmed.

Radičević arrived to strengthen Joventut's point-guard group and add another option to organise the offence. His registration makes a first appearance against Bilbao possible, but the team has not confirmed that he will play. If selected, he gives Joventut another backcourt option, though his immediate role is uncertain.
- Nikola Radičević signed a two-month deal with Joventut on 30 October.
- He was registered for the Liga Endesa before the Bilbao game.
- A first appearance against Bilbao was described as possible.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Total PointsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 86.5

1.85fair 1.51

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 66.1%

+12.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. The 1st half has more than 86.5 points in about 66 of 100 games like this. Joventut's strong home scoring and Bilbao's leaky away defense suggest a home total in the mid-90s, while Bilbao's road scoring and free-throw advantage lift them into the mid-80s. The current ACB records are close, but Joventut's home venue and extra rest give them the clearer advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result3 outcomes · top 71%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Joventut Badalona win in about 71 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJoventut BadalonaEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Joventut Badalona are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultJoventut BadalonaEstimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Joventut Badalona cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Joventut Badalona and 15 for Bilbao, across seasons and competitions.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapJoventut Badalona -0.5Estimated chance59.2%

Points7 outcomes · top 66.1%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. The 1st half has more than 86.5 points in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointsOver 86.5Market price1.85Estimated chance66.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointsOver 43.5Estimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Bilbao score more than 41.5 points in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsBilbao over 41.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Joventut Badalona score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsJoventut Badalona over 22.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Bilbao score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsBilbao over 20.5Estimated chance60.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. Joventut Badalona score more than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsJoventut Badalona over 45.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Joventut Badalona 94.2, Bilbao 87.2. The 1st quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- In Liga ACB 2026-27 through 31 October, Bilbao are 3-2 with 476 points scored and 478 allowed; Joventut are 2-3 with 473 scored and 468 allowed.
- Joventut's six home games in all competitions this season through 25 October averaged 94.7 points scored and 80.7 allowed.
- Bilbao's four away games in all competitions this season through 28 October averaged 94.3 points scored and 101.3 allowed.
- Joventut have shot 57.1% on two-pointers and 37.0% on three-pointers across 14-15 tracked games; Bilbao have shot 53.0% and 36.4%, with a 74.1% free-throw mark against Joventut's 54.1%.
- Joventut last played on 25 October, seven days before this game; Bilbao last played on 28 October, about 3.7 days before it.
- In the latest home head-to-head, Joventut beat Bilbao 101-69 on 19 October 2025, though Bilbao won 80-76 in Bilbao on 31 January 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointsOver 43.5Estimated chance60.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 31, 01:47

Selected line

178.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

59%

Chance of 179+ points

+7 pp above break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 59%.

Move the line main 178.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 59%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L80–76

Bilbaov

Joventut Badalona

Jan 31, 2026·ACB

W101–69

Joventut Badalonav Bilbao

Bilbao

Oct 19, 2025·ACB

W87–79

Joventut Badalonav Bilbao

Bilbao

May 3, 2025·ACB

W79–95

Bilbaov

Joventut Badalona

Nov 17, 2024·ACB

L92–71

Bilbaov

Joventut Badalona

Mar 17, 2024·ACB

W81–78

Joventut Badalonav Bilbao

Bilbao

Nov 19, 2023·ACB

W51–70

Bilbaov

Joventut Badalona

Jan 28, 2023·ACB

L76–81

Joventut Badalonav Bilbao

Bilbao

Sep 30, 2022·ACB

W71–77

Bilbaov

Joventut Badalona

Mar 6, 2022·ACB

W85–79

Joventut Badalonav Bilbao

Bilbao

Sep 18, 2021·ACB

157.8Avg total points

12Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Joventut Badalona

2–340%

Bilbao

3–260%

Recent Form

Joventut Badalona

8W 7L · last 15

at Basquet Girona87–101 Oct 25ACB

vs Bonn76–74 Oct 21CL

vs Barcelona113–89 Oct 18ACB

vs MoraBanc Andorra96–75 Oct 14ACB

at Baskonia73–93 Oct 11ACB

vs Bnei Herzliya86–75 Oct 6CL

at Breogan104–110 Sep 27ACB

vs Barcelona101–87 Sep 20SUP

vs Baskonia96–84 Sep 19SUP

vs Valencia75–87 Jun 14ACB

at Valencia76–90 Jun 12ACB

at Valencia117–118 OTJun 10ACB

at Baskonia96–88 Jun 7ACB

vs Baskonia82–63 Jun 5ACB

at Baskonia71–85 Jun 3ACB

Bilbao

8W 7L · last 15

at Alba Berlin100–103 Oct 28CL

vs MoraBanc Andorra88–76 Oct 25ACB

at Real Madrid84–119 Oct 18ACB

vs Slavia Prague ERA NBK97–86 Oct 14CL

vs San Pablo Burgos96–87 Oct 11ACB

at Igokea92–79 Oct 6CL

at Leyma Coruna101–104 OTOct 4ACB

vs Manresa107–92 Sep 26ACB

vs Valencia71–88 Jun 5ACB

at Valencia80–83 Jun 3ACB

at Tenerife87–82 May 29ACB

vs Basquet Girona86–80 May 24ACB

at Valencia83–88 May 17ACB

vs Real Madrid88–82 May 14ACB

at Forca Lleida81–90 May 10ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Joventut Badalona

Stats

4–1

Bilbao

Joventut Badalona leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.1pp

57.1%

+4.1pp

53.0%

3-point %14/15 games+0.6pp

37.0%

+0.6pp

36.4%

Free-throw %+20.0pp

54.1%

+20.0pp

74.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s38.3pp apart

76.1%

38.3pp apart

37.8%

Free throws per shot14/15 games14.2pp apart

26.6%

14.2pp apart

40.8%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+21.8

54.9

+21.8

33.1

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

12.2

0.2 fewer

12.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.