Lega Basket Serie AUpcomingFeatured

VeronaVarese

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 19:0031 Oct, 19:00

10Probabilities1Priced1Edges65.4%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Verona and Varese both sit 3-2 in Lega A, and the home side's lower turnover count and rebounding edge make Verona the pick to win at home, with an expected score around 90-85 after 40 minutes.

Varese arrive off a 95-61 Champions League win at Bamberg, so the game could be closer than the table suggests. Verona to win by more than 2.5 points at 1.9 is the one price that stands out; Verona's team total under 89.5 at 1.7 does not.

Context

Both teams are 3-2 in the league with similar shooting; Verona's lower turnover count and rebounding edge are offset by Varese's 95-61 Champions League win at Bamberg four days earlier and Hunter's 20.3-point average.

Varese's 95-61 victory at Bamberg was their first Basketball Champions League success of the season. The Serie A meeting in Verona follows four days later, placing a European fixture immediately before this domestic game. Its effect on Varese's selection is unclear.
- Varese beat BMA365 Bamberg 95-61 at Brose Arena on 27 October.
- The Verona fixture is listed for 31 October.
Nikolic reached a rare Serie A milestone before this round. Varese list him as a forward, so the achievement adds recent individual context ahead of Verona without determining his role in the game.
- Nikolic became the 11th player in Serie A history to make at least 11 shots without a miss.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicapUncertainty band: Lean

Verona -2.5

1.90fair 1.67

Market 52.6% · BetBugs 59.9%

+7.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Verona's slightly better current league scoring margin, lower turnover count, rebounding advantage and extra rest support a home win in the high-80s to low-90s. Varese's overtime-inflated league scoring and 15.4 turnovers per game keep their expected output in the mid-80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 65.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona win in about 65 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerVeronaEstimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · HandicapVerona -2.5Market price1.90Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultVeronaEstimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Verona and 15 for Varese, across seasons and competitions.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapVerona +0.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultVeronaEstimated chance55.8%

Points5 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Varese score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsVarese under 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Verona score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsVerona over 21.5Estimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Varese score fewer than 87.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · Team PointsVarese under 87.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. The 2nd quarter has more than 42.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointsOver 42.5Estimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 89.8, Varese 84.8. Varese score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Verona are 3-2 in Lega A after five games (30 Oct table), scoring 90.0 and allowing 88.8 per game, including home wins over Reggiana 94-81 on 18 Oct and Milano 75-72 on 5 Oct.
- Varese are 3-2 in Lega A, scoring 86.8 and allowing 88.2 per game, but their 110-103 home win over Roma on 24 Oct went to overtime, so their regulation average is lower.
- Across the 15-game box-score samples, Verona average 10.1 turnovers and 33.4 rebounds, while Varese average 15.4 turnovers and 30.5 rebounds.
- Verona have had six days since their 25 Oct game at Trieste; Varese played at Bamberg in the Champions League on 27 Oct and have four days before this fixture.
- Shooting over the 15 tracked games is close: Verona 52.5% on twos, 35.0% on threes and 67.8% from the line; Varese 53.4%, 34.9% and 70.5%.
- Varese won both 2022-23 league meetings 98-94 and 98-91, but those results are three seasons old and rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsVarese under 43.5Estimated chance56.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 04:22

Selected line

176.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

47%

Chance of 177+ points

5 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 47%.

Move the line main 176.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L98–94

Varesev

Verona

Mar 26, 2023·LEG

L91–98

Veronav

Varese

Nov 27, 2022·LEG

190.5Avg total points

5.5Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Verona

3–260%

Varese

3–260%

Recent Form

Verona

11W 4L · last 15

at Trieste99–108 Oct 25LEG

vs Reggiana94–81 Oct 18LEG

at Scafati89–82 Oct 11LEG

vs Olimpia Milano75–72 Oct 5LEG

at Tortona93–101 Sep 27LEG

at Rimini83–75 Jun 14SER

at Rimini70–82 Jun 12SER

vs Rimini84–76 Jun 9SER

vs Rimini84–74 Jun 7SER

vs Fortitudo Bologna86–73 May 25SER

at Fortitudo Bologna75–74 OTMay 22SER

at Fortitudo Bologna60–59 May 20SER

at Brindisi77–69 May 14SER

at Brindisi70–77 May 12SER

vs Brindisi86–71 May 9SER

Varese

7W 8L · last 15

at Bamberg95–61 Oct 27CL

vs BC Roma110–103 OTOct 24LEG

at Trento85–87 Oct 18LEG

vs Peristeri82–85 Oct 13CL

vs Trieste85–84 Oct 10LEG

at Murcia58–85 Oct 7CL

at Scafati85–77 Oct 4LEG

vs Virtus Bologna69–90 Sep 27LEG

at Virtus Bologna85–104 May 10LEG

vs Cremona84–75 Apr 26LEG

at Cantu96–100 Apr 19LEG

vs Sassari91–90 Apr 12LEG

at Trieste89–90 Apr 4LEG

vs Tortona97–87 Mar 28LEG

at Basket Napoli75–104 Mar 22LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Verona

Stats

3–2

Varese

Verona leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.9pp

52.5%

+0.9pp

53.4%

3-point %+0.1pp

35.0%

+0.1pp

34.9%

Free-throw %+2.7pp

67.8%

+2.7pp

70.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.2pp apart

39.7%

1.2pp apart

38.5%

Free throws per shot0.7pp apart

33.9%

0.7pp apart

34.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+2.9

33.4

+2.9

30.5

Turnovers per game5.3 fewer

10.1

5.3 fewer

15.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.