Energa Basket LigaUpcoming

Trefl SopotBydgoszcz

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 11:3031 Oct, 11:30

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges82.5%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

Read first

At the foot of the early Energa Basket Liga table, Trefl Sopot are 0-4 and Bydgoszcz 1-3, and the expected score after 40 minutes reads 84.5 to 90.6 for the visitors.

Bydgoszcz look the likelier winners, though part of their recent record comes from the lower 1 Liga. Prices are quoted across game and period markets, but the evidence is too thin to back one.

Context

Trefl lose a regular guard for six to eight weeks, which reshapes their backcourt rotation for this game and beyond. Bydgoszcz's 15-game scoring and shooting figures mix top-flight and second-tier 1 Liga games, so their recent form is harder to read than a straight record suggests.

Blomgren will miss the Astoria game after suffering the knee injury against MKS Dąbrowa Górnicza. Trefl must adjust its backcourt without its Finnish point guard, and the stated recovery window extends well beyond this fixture.
- Perttu Blomgren injured his knee during Trefl’s game against MKS Dąbrowa Górnicza on 25 October.
- Tests confirmed a partial MCL tear.
- The injury rules him out of Trefl’s upcoming games, with a six-to-eight-week break from team training expected.
Kłaczek is unavailable for Astoria’s trip to Trefl after the season-ending Achilles injury sustained against WKS Śląsk Wrocław. His absence removes one player from Astoria’s available squad for this game.
- Kacper Kłaczek sustained the injury in Astoria’s game against WKS Śląsk Wrocław.
- Diagnostic tests confirmed a ruptured Achilles tendon.
- Astoria stated that the injury rules him out for the remainder of the current season.
Trefl’s first league win remains the immediate backdrop to the Astoria meeting. The club framed the home game as a chance to halt the early-season losing sequence, without establishing any wider fixture-specific effect.
- Trefl described the Astoria fixture as an opportunity to end its losing run.
- The club stated that it was seeking its first 2026–27 Energa Basket Liga win.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz cover +3.5 (overtime included) in about 76 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · HandicapBydgoszcz +3.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz cover +2.5 in the 1st half in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapBydgoszcz +2.5Estimated chance72.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · Match WinnerBydgoszczEstimated chance68.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Trefl Sopot and 15 for Bydgoszcz, across seasons and competitions.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapBydgoszcz +1.5Estimated chance68%

Points6 outcomes · top 82.5%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Trefl Sopot and 15 for Bydgoszcz, across seasons and competitions.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsBydgoszcz over 17.5Estimated chance82.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · Team PointsBydgoszcz over 85.5Estimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Trefl Sopot score fewer than 89.5 points (overtime included) in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · Team PointsTrefl Sopot under 89.5Estimated chance66.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Bydgoszcz score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsBydgoszcz over 42.5Estimated chance66.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. The 3rd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Trefl Sopot and 15 for Bydgoszcz, across seasons and competitions.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 40.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trefl Sopot 84.5, Bydgoszcz 90.6. Trefl Sopot score fewer than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Trefl Sopot are 0-4 in the Energa Basket Liga this season, scoring 77.0 and conceding 94.3 per game (four games, through 25 October 2026).
- Bydgoszcz are 1-3 in the same league, scoring 88.0 and conceding 95.0 per game (four games, through 24 October 2026), with the 1 Liga games in their sample coming from a lower level.
- Across 15 tracked games Trefl shoot 53.3% on twos, 32.5% on threes and 75.4% from the line with 16.0 turnovers per game; Bydgoszcz shoot 54.8%, 35.7% and 75.2% with 14.3 turnovers (rebounds 32.1 vs 33.1).
- Trefl guard Perttu Blomgren (8.0 points in 21 minutes per game) was ruled out on 30 October 2026 with a partial MCL tear and a six-to-eight-week absence.
- Head-to-head: Trefl won five of the last seven meetings (2019-2023), including 107-78 in March 2021, but those rosters are long gone.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsTrefl Sopot under 44.5Estimated chance62.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 20:08

Selected line

174.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 175+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 174.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W80–91

Bydgoszczv

Trefl Sopot

Feb 3, 2023·ENE

W90–71

Trefl Sopotv

Bydgoszcz

Oct 15, 2022·ENE

L105–90

Bydgoszczv

Trefl Sopot

Feb 13, 2022·ENE

L81–86

Trefl Sopotv

Bydgoszcz

Oct 24, 2021·ENEOT

W107–78

Trefl Sopotv

Bydgoszcz

Mar 21, 2021·ENE

W77–82

Bydgoszczv

Trefl Sopot

Oct 17, 2020·ENE

W87–78

Trefl Sopotv

Bydgoszcz

Dec 14, 2019·ENE

171.9Avg total points

13.3Avg margin

7meetings

League table

Energa Basket Liga · Basket Liga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Trefl Sopot

0–40%

Bydgoszcz

1–325%

Recent Form

Trefl Sopot

5W 10L · last 15

at Dabrowa Gornicza82–88 Oct 25ENE

vs Szczecin81–91 Oct 17ENE

at Gdynia82–96 Oct 11ENE

vs Dziki Warszawa63–102 Oct 2ENE

at Legia89–93 Sep 26SUP

at Dziki Warszawa73–88 May 21ENE

at Dziki Warszawa78–85 May 19ENE

vs Dziki Warszawa81–78 May 16ENE

vs Dziki Warszawa92–107 May 14ENE

at Anwil Wloclawek79–94 May 6ENE

vs Ostrow Wielkopolski88–86 May 2ENE

at Czarni Slupsk76–72 Apr 25ENE

vs Torun92–72 Apr 18ENE

vs Lublin103–97 OTApr 11ENE

vs Legia93–100 Apr 6ENE

Bydgoszcz

9W 6L · last 15

at Slask Wroclaw77–100 Oct 24ENE

at Torun96–110 Oct 16ENE

vs GTK Gliwice74–75 Oct 9ENE

vs Zielona Gora105–95 Oct 3ENE

vs LKS Lodz96–87 May 271 L

at LKS Lodz69–88 May 241 L

at LKS Lodz81–74 May 231 L

vs LKS Lodz84–64 May 171 L

vs LKS Lodz71–85 May 161 L

at Starogard Gdanski72–70 May 101 L

at Starogard Gdanski82–103 May 91 L

vs Starogard Gdanski68–62 May 31 L

vs Starogard Gdanski101–78 May 21 L

at Kotwica Kolobrzeg99–68 Apr 261 L

at Kotwica Kolobrzeg94–84 Apr 251 L

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Trefl Sopot

Stats

2–3

Bydgoszcz

Bydgoszcz leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.5pp

53.3%

+1.5pp

54.8%

3-point %+3.2pp

32.5%

+3.2pp

35.7%

Free-throw %+0.2pp

75.4%

+0.2pp

75.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.9pp apart

34.7%

2.9pp apart

37.6%

Free throws per shot0.8pp apart

35.5%

0.8pp apart

36.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.0

33.1

+1.0

32.1

Turnovers per game1.7 fewer

16.0

1.7 fewer

14.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.