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OckelboMalbas

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:0031 Oct, 15:00

10Probabilities2Priced2Edges72.1%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

Read first

Ockelbo's 73-71 win over Malbas on 3 October and an expected score of 79.8-72.4 points after 40 minutes make the home side the likely winner.

Malbas have averaged 66.4 points scored in five away league games, so Malbas to score under 76.5 points, overtime included, at 1.85 is playable, while Ockelbo to win by four or more, overtime included, at 1.8 also holds up. Malbas +3.5 points at 1.78 does not.

Context

Ockelbo's 2-4 league start and 73-71 win over Malbas give them the edge, but their 0-2 home league form and the close recent meeting keep the matchup competitive.

The clubs meet again less than four weeks after a one-basket game on 3 October. That result gives this fixture recent direct head-to-head context, although the gap between the games limits how much it can say about this rematch.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 on 3 October.
- Ockelbo had the edge for much of the close contest before holding on.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Team PointsUncertainty band: Lean

Malbas under 76.5

1.85fair 1.57

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 63.8%

+9.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Malbas score fewer than 76.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this. Ockelbo have the better current record, slightly better shooting and rebounding, and Malbas have been especially weak on the road. The October head-to-head was a tight, low-scoring game, so I expect a modest home win rather than a blowout.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 72.1%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Ockelbo win in about 72 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerOckelboEstimated chance72.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Ockelbo cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ockelbo and 15 for Malbas, across seasons and competitions.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapOckelbo +0.5Estimated chance65.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Ockelbo are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultOckelboEstimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Ockelbo cover -3.5 (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · HandicapOckelbo -3.5Market price1.80Estimated chance63.7%

Points6 outcomes · top 70.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Ockelbo score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ockelbo and 15 for Malbas, across seasons and competitions.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsOckelbo over 17.5Estimated chance70.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ockelbo and 15 for Malbas, across seasons and competitions.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsUnder 40.5Estimated chance65.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Malbas score fewer than 76.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · Team PointsMalbas under 76.5Market price1.85Estimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Malbas score fewer than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ockelbo and 15 for Malbas, across seasons and competitions.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsMalbas under 19.5Estimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Malbas score more than 16.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ockelbo and 15 for Malbas, across seasons and competitions.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsMalbas over 16.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ockelbo 79.8, Malbas 72.4. Malbas score fewer than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Ockelbo are 2-4 in Superettan, averaging 73.5 points for and 86.5 against in six games through 24 October.
- Malbas are 0-7, averaging 69.6 points for and 87.9 against in seven games through 25 October; away they average 66.4 for and 88.6 against in five.
- Ockelbo beat Malbas 73-71 in their Superettan meeting on 3 October 2026.
- Across 15 box scores, Ockelbo shoot 50.6% inside the arc and 24.7% from three; Malbas shoot 48.7% and 26.6%.
- Ockelbo average 36.5 rebounds and 15.7 turnovers over 15 games, against Malbas's 35.1 rebounds and 16.4 turnovers.
- Ockelbo have had seven days' rest since 24 October; Malbas have had six since 25 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsMalbas under 19.5Estimated chance60.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 01:56

Selected line

155.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

44%

Chance of 156+ points

12 pp below break-even

Over 1.80 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 44%.

Move the line main 155.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 44%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W71–73

Malbasv

Ockelbo

Oct 3, 2026·SUP

L63–75

Ockelbov

Malbas

Mar 28, 2026·SUP

W72–74

Malbasv

Ockelbo

Jan 11, 2026·SUP

L84–62

Malbasv

Ockelbo

Apr 27, 2025·SUP

W69–54

Ockelbov

Malbas

Apr 21, 2025·SUP

L97–70

Malbasv

Ockelbo

Jan 26, 2025·SUP

W79–71

Ockelbov

Malbas

Sep 22, 2024·SUP

L66–51

Malbasv

Ockelbo

Mar 3, 2024·SUP

W78–70

Ockelbov

Malbas

Dec 9, 2023·SUP

142.1Avg total points

12.3Avg margin

9meetings

League table

Superettan · Superettan - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Ockelbo

2–433%

Malbas

0–70%

Recent Form

Ockelbo

4W 11L · last 15

vs Huddinge75–76 Oct 24SUP

vs Norrort69–80 Oct 10SUP

at IK Eos71–90 Oct 4SUP

at Malbas73–71 Oct 3SUP

at Cross Over94–75 Sep 26SUP

at Alvik59–127 Sep 19SUP

at Djurgarden76–82 Apr 12SUP

vs Blackeberg72–57 Apr 10SUP

vs Malbas63–75 Mar 28SUP

at Eskilstuna75–97 Mar 14SUP

vs AIK Basket56–73 Mar 7SUP

at Huddinge76–91 Mar 1SUP

vs Wetterbygden Stars75–81 Feb 21SUP

at AIK Basket69–78 Feb 14SUP

vs Fryshuset Basket97–92 Feb 7SUP

Malbas

4W 11L · last 15

at Alvik65–86 Oct 25SUP

at AIK Basket66–82 Oct 24SUP

at Fryshuset Basket73–84 Oct 18SUP

at IK Eos55–91 Oct 14SUP

at Wetterbygden Stars73–100 Oct 10SUP

vs Ockelbo71–73 Oct 3SUP

vs Eskilstuna84–99 Sep 19SUP

vs Huddinge90–95 Apr 26SUP

at Huddinge67–82 Apr 23SUP

vs Alvik78–86 Apr 11SUP

vs IK Eos83–61 Apr 1SUP

at Ockelbo75–63 Mar 28SUP

at IK Eos80–98 Mar 18SUP

vs Sollentuna97–89 Mar 15SUP

vs AIK Basket101–88 Feb 22SUP

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Ockelbo

Stats

3–2

Malbas

Ockelbo leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.9pp

50.6%

+1.9pp

48.7%

3-point %+1.9pp

24.7%

+1.9pp

26.6%

Free-throw %+3.2pp

65.3%

+3.2pp

68.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.1pp apart

28.2%

0.1pp apart

28.1%

Free throws per shot2.6pp apart

36.7%

2.6pp apart

34.1%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+1.4

36.5

+1.4

35.1

Turnovers per game0.7 fewer

15.7

0.7 fewer

16.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Malbas under 76.5

Ockelbo -3.5

Result4 outcomes · top 72.1%

Points6 outcomes · top 70.6%

Total points

League table

Recent Form

Ockelbo

Malbas