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Lugano TigersLausanne Basket

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:0031 Oct, 16:00

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Lugano have lost five straight league games and host a Lausanne side sitting 4-2; an expected score of 77.6-86.0 tilts clearly to the visitors, who lead after 40 minutes in about 73 of 100 such games and win including overtime in about 75.

Prices are posted across the board, but none is worth backing at these numbers; Lugano over 78.5 team points at 1.75 was the one examined and it does not hold up.

Context

Lugano's five-game league slide and 88.0 points conceded per league game shape the matchup, with Lausanne's 4-2 start making them clear favourites; no availability or travel factor is established.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 74.7%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket win in about 75 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · Match WinnerLausanne BasketEstimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultLausanne BasketEstimated chance66.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lugano Tigers and 15 for Lausanne Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapLausanne Basket +0.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultLausanne BasketEstimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lugano Tigers and 15 for Lausanne Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapLausanne Basket -0.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultLausanne BasketEstimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultLausanne BasketEstimated chance57.1%

Points3 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lausanne Basket score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lugano Tigers and 15 for Lausanne Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsLausanne Basket over 17.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 36.5 points in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lugano Tigers and 15 for Lausanne Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 36.5Estimated chance70.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lugano Tigers 77.6, Lausanne Basket 86.0. Lugano Tigers score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lugano Tigers and 15 for Lausanne Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Lugano Tigers have conceded 88.0 points per game across six SB League games in 2026-27, including a 74-92 loss at Geneva Lions on 24 October 2026.
- Lausanne Basket sit 4th at 4-2 in the SB League table through 30 October 2026, scoring 83.8 and allowing 77.2 per league game.
- Lugano score 78.7 per game in three home league games this season but have lost five straight SB League games since 27 September 2026.
- Across 15 tracked games in 2026-27, Lugano average 28.9 rebounds and 16.5 turnovers per game while shooting 31.6% from three; Lausanne average 34.6 rebounds with 49.3% two-point shooting.
- Head-to-head in Lugano: the visitors won 93-89 on 21 January 2026 and Lugano won 102-90 on 21 March 2026, so recent meetings there have been high-scoring.
- Lausanne's four ENBL games in October 2026 were lower-scoring (67-88 vs Syntainics MBC, 21 October) against stronger European opposition than the domestic league.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsLugano Tigers under 21.5Estimated chance66.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 01:56

Selected line

166.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 167+ points

9 pp below break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 166.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W102–90

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Mar 21, 2026·SB

L89–93

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Jan 21, 2026·SB

L99–87

Lausanne Basketv

Lugano Tigers

Nov 4, 2025·SB

L124–87

Lausanne Basketv

Lugano Tigers

Mar 30, 2025·SB

L112–91

Lausanne Basketv

Lugano Tigers

Jan 4, 2025·SB

L77–84

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Oct 19, 2024·SB

W93–74

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Feb 28, 2024·SB

W94–96

Lausanne Basketv

Lugano Tigers

Feb 3, 2024·SB OT

L78–86

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Nov 18, 2023·SB

W84–64

Lugano Tigersv

Lausanne Basket

Jan 12, 2020·SB

180.4Avg total points

14.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

SB League · SB League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Lugano Tigers

1–517%

Lausanne Basket

4–267%

Recent Form

Lugano Tigers

3W 12L · last 15

at Geneva Lions74–92 Oct 24SB

vs SAM Massagno72–102 Oct 17SB

at Fribourg Olympic80–116 Oct 10SB

vs Sdent BBC Nyon70–77 Oct 4SB

at Neuchatel61–69 Sep 30SB

vs BBC Monthey94–72 Sep 27SB

at SAM Massagno86–107 Apr 4SB

at Regio Basel80–98 Mar 29SB

vs Sdent BBC Nyon64–96 Mar 25SB

vs Lausanne Basket102–90 Mar 21SB

at BBC Monthey75–90 Mar 14SB

vs Geneva Lions78–112 Mar 10SB

at Neuchatel79–77 Mar 7SB

vs Fribourg Olympic58–100 Feb 21SB

at Regio Basel76–86 Feb 7SB

Lausanne Basket

6W 9L · last 15

vs Sdent BBC Nyon85–75 Oct 25SB

vs Syntainics MBC67–88 Oct 21ENB

at Regio Basel85–69 Oct 18SB

at CIU88–97 Oct 14ENB

vs Geneva Lions65–94 Oct 10SB

at BK Liepaja74–81 Oct 6ENB

vs BBC Monthey94–80 Oct 3SB

at SAM Massagno84–90 Sep 30SB

vs Zurich90–55 Sep 26SB

vs Kapfenberg Bulls71–94 Sep 23ENB

vs Fribourg Olympic71–111 May 9SB

at Fribourg Olympic69–91 May 5SB

at Fribourg Olympic56–99 May 2SB

at Neuchatel71–70 Apr 30SB

vs Neuchatel85–82 Apr 28SB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Lugano Tigers

Stats

3–2

Lausanne Basket

Lugano Tigers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+3.3pp

52.6%

+3.3pp

49.3%

3-point %+0.7pp

31.6%

+0.7pp

30.9%

Free-throw %+0.6pp

67.1%

+0.6pp

66.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s9.6pp apart

33.0%

9.6pp apart

23.4%

Free throws per shot3.7pp apart

29.8%

3.7pp apart

33.5%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+5.7

28.9

+5.7

34.6

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

16.5

0.6 fewer

15.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.