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LietkabelisNeptunas

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 14:5031 Oct, 14:50

8Probabilities0Priced0Edges82.5%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Lietkabelis and Neptunas meet in the LKL with little between them: the visitors are 4-3, the hosts 3-4, and the expected score is 81.2-82.2.

Neptunas are the likely winner in a close game, but with 192 selections quoted no price stands out at these numbers.

Context

Both teams played EuroCup games on 27 and 28 October, and Neptunas have had one day less since their last game. No availability or rotation information is established.

Lietkabelis played EuroCup on 27 October and Neptūnas followed a day later, before their 31 October LKL fixture. It is immediate competition context for both sides, rather than a reported availability or rotation development.
- Ulm won in Panevėžys against Lietkabelis on 27 October.
- Napoli beat Neptūnas in Lithuania on 28 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result3 outcomes · top 76.1%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Lietkabelis cover +5.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lietkabelis and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapLietkabelis +5.5Estimated chance76.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Neptunas cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lietkabelis and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapNeptunas +2.5Estimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Neptunas win in about 53 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerNeptunasEstimated chance53.2%

Points5 outcomes · top 82.5%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Neptunas score more than 15.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lietkabelis and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsNeptunas over 15.5Estimated chance82.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Lietkabelis score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lietkabelis and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsLietkabelis under 22.5Estimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. The 1st quarter has fewer than 42.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointsUnder 42.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. Neptunas score fewer than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsNeptunas under 21.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lietkabelis 81.2, Neptunas 82.2. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 41.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lietkabelis and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Current LKL table (7 games, observed 30 Oct 2026): Lietkabelis 3-4 with 532 scored/570 allowed (76.0/81.4 per game); Neptunas 4-3 with 606/583 (86.6/83.3).
- In LKL home games this season Lietkabelis scored 65, 85 and 84 (78.0 average), while Neptunas' three LKL away games produced 84, 77 and 78 (79.7 average).
- Across this season's box scores, Neptunas average 32.7 rebounds and shoot 76.5% from the free-throw line (11 games tracked); Lietkabelis average 29.1 rebounds and 67.0% from the line (10 games tracked).
- Neptunas have a 34.0% three-point mark and Lietkabelis 32.0% across 15 games tracked this season; Neptunas also have the higher free-throw rate (38.8% vs 30.5%).
- Latest h2h in LKL: Lietkabelis beat Neptunas 80-68 at home on 8 June 2026, but Neptunas won 91-82 in Panevezys on 13 June 2026; both teams enter after EuroCup losses on 27-28 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsUnder 41.5Estimated chance55.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 01:56

Selected line

164.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 165+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.75 needs 57% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 164.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L82–91

Lietkabelisv

Neptunas

Jun 13, 2026·LKL

L66–63

Neptunasv

Lietkabelis

Jun 11, 2026·LKL

W80–68

Lietkabelisv

Neptunas

Jun 8, 2026·LKL

L86–73

Neptunasv

Lietkabelis

Jun 6, 2026·LKL

W83–80

Lietkabelisv

Neptunas

Apr 26, 2026·LKL

L96–87

Neptunasv

Lietkabelis

Mar 28, 2026·LKLOT

W73–94

Neptunasv

Lietkabelis

Feb 22, 2026·KIN

L97–87

Neptunasv

Lietkabelis

Jan 24, 2026·LKL

L84–96

Lietkabelisv

Neptunas

Sep 20, 2025·LKL

W84–79

Lietkabelisv

Neptunas

Apr 30, 2025·LKL

164.9Avg total points

9.7Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LKL · LKL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Lietkabelis

3–443%

Neptunas

4–357%

Recent Form

Lietkabelis

7W 8L · last 15

vs Ulm68–86 Oct 27EUR

at Gargzdai80–83 Oct 24LKL

at Balkan64–57 Oct 20EUR

at Nevezis73–72 Oct 17LKL

vs PAOK95–86 Oct 13EUR

vs Jonava65–71 Oct 10LKL

at BC Roma87–92 Oct 7EUR

at Zalgiris Kaunas68–97 Oct 4LKL

vs KK Bosna75–72 Sep 30EUR

vs Taurage85–79 Sep 26LKL

at Siauliai77–86 Sep 23LKL

vs Juventus84–82 Sep 19LKL

vs Neptunas82–91 Jun 13LKL

at Neptunas63–66 Jun 11LKL

vs Neptunas80–68 Jun 8LKL

Neptunas

7W 8L · last 15

vs Basket Napoli85–94 Oct 28EUR

vs Siauliai110–88 Oct 25LKL

at Buducnost89–104 Oct 20EUR

at Jonava84–83 Oct 17LKL

vs JL Bourg93–89 Oct 13EUR

at Rytas77–86 Oct 10LKL

at Chemnitz84–93 Oct 7EUR

vs Nevezis89–62 Oct 3LKL

vs Trento73–76 Sep 29EUR

at Gargzdai78–87 Sep 26LKL

vs Juventus99–84 Sep 23LKL

vs Zalgiris Kaunas69–93 Sep 20LKL

at Lietkabelis91–82 Jun 13LKL

vs Lietkabelis66–63 Jun 11LKL

at Lietkabelis68–80 Jun 8LKL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Lietkabelis

Stats

1–4

Neptunas

Neptunas leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+0.2pp

51.6%

+0.2pp

51.8%

3-point %+2.0pp

32.0%

+2.0pp

34.0%

Free-throw %10/11 games+9.5pp

67.0%

+9.5pp

76.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.9pp apart

31.4%

1.9pp apart

29.5%

Free throws per shot10/11 games8.3pp apart

30.5%

8.3pp apart

38.8%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.6

29.1

+3.6

32.7

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

11.5

0.9 fewer

12.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.