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Kauno AtletasMazeikiai

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 14:0031 Oct, 14:00

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges82.2%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Two NKL sides with one win between them meet in Kaunas, and Mazeikiai's shooting edge makes them the likelier winner by roughly four points.

At 1.37, though, that edge is more than paid for, and over 166.5 combined points at 1.75 asks for scoring these two offenses have not produced. No price stands out.

Context

Both teams sit near the foot of the NKL and lost on 29 October. Two Mazeikiai rotation players were missing from the latest box score, so the visitor's depth is unresolved, and Kauno's eight-game record leaves their shooting numbers on a small base.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai win in about 63 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · Match WinnerMazeikiaiEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapMazeikiai +0.5Estimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapMazeikiai +0.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultMazeikiaiEstimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Kauno Atletas cover +6.5 (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · HandicapKauno Atletas +6.5Estimated chance56.3%

Points5 outcomes · top 82.2%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. The 2nd quarter has more than 34.5 points in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointsOver 34.5Estimated chance82.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsMazeikiai over 17.5Estimated chance76.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Kauno Atletas score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsKauno Atletas under 22.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Kauno Atletas score fewer than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 8 completed games for Kauno Atletas and 15 for Mazeikiai, across seasons and competitions.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsKauno Atletas under 21.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kauno Atletas 79.7, Mazeikiai 83.9. Mazeikiai score fewer than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Kauno Atletas is 0-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 76.0 points scored and 96.6 allowed over eight 2026-27 games.
- In three 2026-27 NKL home games, Kauno has scored 72, 76 and 78 points (75.3 average) and allowed 84, 84 and 102 (90.0).
- Mazeikiai is 1-8 in NKL through Oct 29, averaging 74.2 scored and 86.3 allowed over nine 2026-27 games; away it has averaged 74.3 scored and 83.8 allowed in four.
- Over the tracked 2026-27 boxes, Mazeikiai shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.5% on three-pointers (15 games), while Kauno shoots 49.1% and 25.5% (8 games).
- Kauno averages 17.1 turnovers per game versus Mazeikiai's 13.3 over the same 2026-27 samples, adding pressure to an already weak offense.
- Both lost on Oct 29: Kauno 76-100 at Telsiai and Mazeikiai 85-109 to Suduva-Mantinga, continuing poor defense.
BetBugs · Team PointsMazeikiai under 86.5Estimated chance57.5%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 01:56

Selected line

166.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 167+ points

12 pp below break-even

Over 1.75 needs 57% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 166.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L63–88

Kauno Atletasv

Mazeikiai

Feb 18, 2023·NKL

W67–71

Mazeikiaiv

Kauno Atletas

Feb 16, 2023·NKL

W84–77

Kauno Atletasv

Mazeikiai

Nov 19, 2022·NKL

L84–73

Mazeikiaiv

Kauno Atletas

Nov 17, 2022·NKL

W96–64

Kauno Atletasv

Mazeikiai

Jan 15, 2022·NKL

L72–67

Mazeikiaiv

Kauno Atletas

Oct 23, 2021·NKL

151Avg total points

14Avg margin

6meetings

League table

NKL · NKL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Kauno Atletas

0–80%

Mazeikiai

1–811%

Recent Form

Kauno Atletas

0W 8L · last 8

at Telsiai76–100 Oct 29NKL

at Suduva-Mantinga63–113 Oct 27NKL

at Vytis VDU85–97 Oct 22NKL

vs Kretinga72–84 Oct 17NKL

at Zalgiris Kaunas 283–107 Oct 15NKL

at Alytaus Patriotai75–86 Oct 10NKL

vs Vilkaviskis76–84 Oct 8NKL

vs Jurbarkas78–102 Oct 3NKL

Mazeikiai

2W 13L · last 15

vs Suduva-Mantinga85–109 Oct 29NKL

at Ukmerges Stekas70–74 Oct 24NKL

vs Plunges Olimpas72–80 Oct 22NKL

vs Neptunas 277–90 Oct 17NKL

at Kedainiai BC85–92 Oct 15NKL

vs Jurbarkas62–91 Oct 10NKL

at Telsiai72–83 Oct 8NKL

vs Rytas 275–72 Oct 3NKL

at BC Olimpas Palanga70–86 Oct 1NKL

at Jurbarkas72–85 Mar 23NKL

vs Jurbarkas87–92 Mar 20NKL

vs Vytis VDU113–99 Mar 14NKL

at Suduva-Mantinga70–99 Mar 12NKL

at Rytas 290–94 Mar 7NKL

vs Telsiai74–86 Mar 5NKL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Kauno Atletas

8 games

Stats

1–4

Mazeikiai

Mazeikiai leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+3.2pp

49.1%

+3.2pp

52.3%

3-point %+8.0pp

25.5%

+8.0pp

33.5%

Free-throw %+4.2pp

65.0%

+4.2pp

69.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13.9pp apart

21.1%

13.9pp apart

35.0%

Free throws per shot3.0pp apart

29.1%

3.0pp apart

26.1%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.1

31.9

+2.1

29.8

Turnovers per game3.8 fewer

17.1

3.8 fewer

13.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.