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Cedevita OlimpijaFMP Beograd

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:0031 Oct, 16:00

10Probabilities0Priced1Edges78%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Cedevita Olimpija and FMP Beograd arrive level at 2-2 in the ABA League, with Cedevita's home edge offset by FMP's rebounding and a week's rest.

Cedevita should edge it, something like 84-80 after 40 minutes, and win about 61 times in 100. The price that holds up is FMP to be ahead at the end of regulation at 3.89; Cedevita at 1.27 to win offers little.

Context

Cedevita come off a EuroCup road game on 28 October, while FMP have been idle since 23 October, and FMP's rebounding advantage keeps a one-possession projection live.

The EuroCup outing came three days before Cedevita Olimpija's home ABA League meeting with FMP Beograd. It places an away European fixture immediately before this domestic game.
- Cedevita Olimpija played Aris in Thessaloniki on 28 October.
- Aris pulled away in the fourth quarter.
The 23 October loss is FMP's immediate official game context before the Cedevita Olimpija meeting. The comeback described in the report did not change the result.
- FMP's road game near the Morava ended without a win on 23 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Result after 40 minUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FMP Beograd

3.89fair 2.74

Market 25.7% · BetBugs 36.5%

+10.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. FMP Beograd are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 37 of 100 games like this. Cedevita's home court and shooting efficiency give them a small scoring advantage, but FMP's rebounding and rest keep this close. The current ABA records are nearly identical, so the difference should be modest.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 78 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Cedevita Olimpija and 15 for FMP Beograd, across seasons and competitions.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapCedevita Olimpija +4.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija win in about 61 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · Match WinnerCedevita OlimpijaEstimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. FMP Beograd cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Cedevita Olimpija and 15 for FMP Beograd, across seasons and competitions.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapFMP Beograd +2.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. FMP Beograd cover +6.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · HandicapFMP Beograd +6.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultCedevita OlimpijaEstimated chance56.2%

Points5 outcomes · top 68.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. FMP Beograd score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Cedevita Olimpija and 15 for FMP Beograd, across seasons and competitions.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsFMP Beograd over 17.5Estimated chance68.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Cedevita Olimpija and 15 for FMP Beograd, across seasons and competitions.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsCedevita Olimpija over 18.5Estimated chance66.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. The 3rd quarter has more than 38.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Cedevita Olimpija and 15 for FMP Beograd, across seasons and competitions.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 38.5Estimated chance61.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsCedevita Olimpija under 43.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Cedevita Olimpija 84.1, FMP Beograd 80.5. Cedevita Olimpija score fewer than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Cedevita Olimpija are 2-2 in the ABA League, scoring 332 and allowing 322 in four games through 24 October 2026.
- FMP Beograd are also 2-2 in the ABA League, with 322 scored and 330 allowed in four games through 23 October 2026.
- Across the tracked samples, Cedevita shoot 52.9% on two-pointers, 31.0% on three-pointers and 77.5% from the line; FMP shoot 50.9%, 28.8% and 77.6%.
- FMP average 34.8 rebounds and 11.2 turnovers per game, while Cedevita average 30.4 rebounds and 12.4 turnovers.
- FMP have been idle since 23 October, while Cedevita played a EuroCup road game at Aris on 28 October.
- Cedevita's most recent home meeting with FMP was a 91-58 ABA win on 12 January 2025, though the head-to-head sample is dated.
BetBugs · Team PointsCedevita Olimpija under 86.5Estimated chance56.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 30, 01:56

Selected line

167.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 168+ points

9 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 167.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W91–58

Cedevita Olimpijav

FMP Beograd

Jan 12, 2025·ABA

L75–62

FMP Beogradv

Cedevita Olimpija

Sep 22, 2024·ABA

W82–74

Cedevita Olimpijav

FMP Beograd

Feb 10, 2024·ABA

W84–96

FMP Beogradv

Cedevita Olimpija

Nov 11, 2023·ABA

L85–81

FMP Beogradv

Cedevita Olimpija

Sep 20, 2023·ABAOT

W97–79

Cedevita Olimpijav

FMP Beograd

May 13, 2023·ABA

L102–96

FMP Beogradv

Cedevita Olimpija

May 6, 2023·ABA

W87–77

Cedevita Olimpijav

FMP Beograd

Apr 29, 2023·ABA

W79–86

FMP Beogradv

Cedevita Olimpija

Feb 11, 2023·ABA

L85–90

Cedevita Olimpijav

FMP Beograd

Nov 6, 2022·ABA

166.6Avg total points

11.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

ABA League · AdmiralBet ABA League - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Cedevita Olimpija

2–250%

FMP Beograd

2–250%

Recent Form

Cedevita Olimpija

7W 8L · last 15

at Aris73–78 Oct 28EUR

vs Buducnost81–95 Oct 24ABA

vs Le Mans66–84 Oct 21EUR

at Igokea93–81 Oct 17ABA

at Rigas Zelli79–89 Oct 14EUR

at Siroki Brijeg69–70 Oct 10ABA

vs Hapoel Jerusalem64–75 Oct 6EUR

vs Cibona89–76 Oct 3ABA

at San Pablo Burgos81–85 Sep 30EUR

vs KK Krka Novo mesto67–71 Sep 17SUP

at KK Krka Novo mesto87–71 Jun 1LIG

vs KK Krka Novo mesto91–74 May 30LIG

at KK Krka Novo mesto90–89 OTMay 27LIG

vs Sencur94–65 May 23LIG

at Sencur86–79 May 20LIG

FMP Beograd

8W 7L · last 15

at Borac Mozzart87–95 Oct 23ABA

vs Siroki Brijeg66–78 Oct 17ABA

at KK Krka Novo mesto79–68 Oct 11ABA

vs Lokomotiv Kuban76–90 Oct 7WIN

vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet90–89 Oct 4ABA

vs Spartak Subotica73–76 OTMay 31SUP

at Partizan Mozzart Bet92–79 May 29SUP

vs Mega Basket99–95 May 12SUP

at Mega Basket80–77 May 5SUP

vs Perspektiva Ilirija82–88 Apr 25ABA

vs Vienna Basket84–92 Apr 20ABA

at Zadar65–76 Apr 14ABA

vs Spartak Subotica69–49 Apr 6ABA

vs Zadar85–55 Mar 31ABA

at Mega Basket84–79 Mar 28ABA

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Cedevita Olimpija

Stats

2–3

FMP Beograd

14 games

FMP Beograd leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+2.1pp

53.0%

+2.1pp

50.9%

3-point %+2.2pp

31.0%

+2.2pp

28.8%

Free-throw %10/14 games+0.1pp

77.5%

+0.1pp

77.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.7pp apart

27.8%

1.7pp apart

29.5%

Free throws per shot10/14 games3.0pp apart

38.6%

3.0pp apart

35.6%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game15/10 games+4.4

30.4

+4.4

34.8

Turnovers per game1.2 fewer

12.4

1.2 fewer

11.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.