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CAB MadeiraOliveirense

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:0031 Oct, 15:00

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges74.6%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

LPB: CAB Madeira host Oliveirense with little between them, the expected score after 40 minutes reading 84.7-82.5 to the hosts even though CAB are 1-3 this season and Oliveirense 2-1.

Oliveirense's two-point shooting and their 6-4 lead in the last 10 meetings keep it close. CAB to win is the marginal call, but the forecasts are low confidence and none of the prices on offer is worth backing.

Context

No confirmed availability news and no current-round stakes; the read rests on four and three league games this season plus 15-game shooting and turnover figures, all of which point to a tight game rather than a decisive edge.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 71.7%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for CAB Madeira and 15 for Oliveirense, across seasons and competitions.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapCAB Madeira +3.5Estimated chance71.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for CAB Madeira and 15 for Oliveirense, across seasons and competitions.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapCAB Madeira +2.5Estimated chance65.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira cover +2.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · HandicapCAB Madeira +2.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapCAB Madeira +1.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerCAB MadeiraEstimated chance56.9%

Points5 outcomes · top 74.6%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for CAB Madeira and 15 for Oliveirense, across seasons and competitions.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsCAB Madeira over 17.5Estimated chance74.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. CAB Madeira score more than 82.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · Team PointsCAB Madeira over 82.5Estimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for CAB Madeira and 15 for Oliveirense, across seasons and competitions.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 39.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointsUnder 43.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: CAB Madeira 84.7, Oliveirense 82.5. Oliveirense score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for CAB Madeira and 15 for Oliveirense, across seasons and competitions.
- CAB Madeira are 1-3 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 80.5 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 25 October; at home they scored 93 and 78.
- Oliveirense are 2-1 in LPB 2026-27, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 allowed over three games through 24 October, but their two away games produced 79.0 points per game.
- Over 15 games each, CAB Madeira shoot 51.1% on two-pointers and 33.4% on three-pointers with 14.1 turnovers per game; Oliveirense shoot 53.0% on two-pointers and 29.5% on three-pointers with 16.3 turnovers per game.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings from 2020-2023, Oliveirense lead 6-4 overall, but CAB Madeira are 4-1 at home and averaged 83.4 points in those home games.
- Both teams had at least six days' rest: CAB Madeira last played on 25 October and Oliveirense on 24 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsOliveirense over 19.5Estimated chance57.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 31, 04:05

Selected line

167.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

51%

Chance of 168+ points

5 pp below break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 51%.

Move the line main 167.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L77–80

CAB Madeirav

Oliveirense

Jan 8, 2023·LPB

L73–65

Oliveirensev

CAB Madeira

Oct 22, 2022·LPB

L77–71

Oliveirensev

CAB Madeira

May 17, 2022·LPB

W82–72

CAB Madeirav

Oliveirense

May 14, 2022·LPB

L82–72

Oliveirensev

CAB Madeira

May 12, 2022·LPB

W93–87

CAB Madeirav

Oliveirense

Mar 19, 2022·LPB

L92–73

Oliveirensev

CAB Madeira

Dec 22, 2021·LPB

W81–75

CAB Madeirav

Oliveirense

Jan 31, 2021·LPB

L87–79

Oliveirensev

CAB Madeira

Nov 5, 2020·LPBOT

W84–82

CAB Madeirav

Oliveirense

Feb 29, 2020·LPB

158.4Avg total points

7.8Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LPB · LPB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

CAB Madeira

1–325%

Oliveirense

2–167%

Recent Form

CAB Madeira

7W 8L · last 15

at FC Porto82–93 Oct 25LPB

vs Sporting CP93–84 Oct 17LPB

at CD Povoa69–73 Oct 10LPB

vs Vitoria78–83 Oct 3LPB

at CD Povoa72–90 May 31PRO

at CD Povoa61–78 May 30PRO

vs CD Povoa90–72 May 24PRO

vs Illiabum76–60 May 16PRO

at Illiabum88–74 May 9PRO

at Imortal B97–78 May 1PRO

vs Ginasio Olhanense77–101 Apr 25PRO

at Ginasio Olhanense75–65 Apr 22PRO

at CD Povoa75–81 Apr 18PRO

at Maia100–108 OTApr 4PRO

vs Portimonense81–74 Mar 28PRO

Oliveirense

7W 8L · last 15

vs Esgueira104–80 Oct 24LPB

at Benfica67–92 Oct 17LPB

at Portimonense91–82 Oct 3LPB

vs Benfica78–86 May 28LPB

at Benfica61–86 May 23LPB

at Benfica76–98 May 21LPB

at Ovarense69–65 May 16LPB

vs Ovarense90–72 May 13LPB

at Ovarense79–93 May 9LPB

at Benfica76–104 May 2TAC

at FC Porto89–86 Apr 30TAC

at Vitoria74–84 Apr 25LPB

vs Imortal78–73 Apr 18LPB

at Sporting CP82–74 Apr 11LPB

at CA Queluz84–91 Apr 4LPB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

CAB Madeira

Stats

4–1

Oliveirense

CAB Madeira leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.9pp

51.1%

+1.9pp

53.0%

3-point %+3.9pp

33.4%

+3.9pp

29.5%

Free-throw %+3.6pp

74.2%

+3.6pp

70.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s10.0pp apart

39.9%

10.0pp apart

29.9%

Free throws per shot6.9pp apart

26.7%

6.9pp apart

33.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+0.1

35.3

+0.1

35.2

Turnovers per game2.2 fewer

14.1

2.2 fewer

16.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.