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Predictions graded

Lyon-Villeurbanne94Baskonia79

Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Lyon-Villeurbanne and Baskonia.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Lyon-Villeurbanne	26	23	26	19
Baskonia	16	23	20	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two EuroLeague strugglers meet in Lyon, where the home side's scoring edge over a Baskonia team averaging 81.7 points on the road shapes the contest.

Lyon-Villeurbanne look the likelier side to be ahead after 40 minutes, and the combined total looks short of 180.5. Both prices are worth taking: under 180.5 combined points at 1.93 and Lyon ahead after 40 minutes at 1.78. Baskonia +3.5 at 1.89 is the one to leave.

Context

Both teams' most recent EuroLeague results are established: Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 on 28 October, Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 October. No confirmed availability change is established on either side, so the impact on the matchup is modest.

The Partizan result is ASVEL's immediate EuroLeague reference point for this fixture. Parker highlighted the team's response after the loss at Žalgiris, while the 82-75 score shows they closed their Round 8 home game successfully. It provides recent form context but does not settle ASVEL's lineup against Baskonia.
- ASVEL defeated Partizan 82-75 on 28 October.
- Tony Parker praised ASVEL's response after their defeat in Kaunas.
The 18-point defeat to Real Madrid was Baskonia's Round 8 result immediately before the trip to Lyon. It is their freshest EuroLeague form reference ahead of ASVEL, but it does not establish which players will be available for this game.
- Real Madrid beat Baskonia 104-86 on 27 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 180.5

1.93fair 1.63

Market 51.8% · BetBugs 61.5%

+9.7ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. The game has fewer than 180.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Both teams give up points freely in the EuroLeague this season, and Lyon's home scoring combined with Baskonia's soft road defense points to a high-80s/low-90s home total. Baskonia score less and travel with three rotation players absent from their latest box score, so they sit a few points below Lyon.

Result after 40 minwonUncertainty band: Lean

Lyon-Villeurbanne

1.78fair 1.55

Market 56.2% · BetBugs 64.4%

+8.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this. Both teams give up points freely in the EuroLeague this season, and Lyon's home scoring combined with Baskonia's soft road defense points to a high-80s/low-90s home total. Baskonia score less and travel with three rotation players absent from their latest box score, so they sit a few points below Lyon.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lyon-Villeurbanne and 15 for Baskonia, across seasons and competitions.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne +1.5Estimated chance66.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne win in about 67 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance66.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance64.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance60.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lyon-Villeurbanne and 15 for Baskonia, across seasons and competitions.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne +0.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover -3.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne -3.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance56.5%

Points3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Baskonia score fewer than 88.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · Team PointswonBaskonia under 88.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.93
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. The game has fewer than 180.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 180.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 44.5Estimated chance56.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne score fewer than 92.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · Team PointslostLyon-Villeurbanne under 92.5Estimated chance56.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 90.1, Baskonia 84.7. Baskonia score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne's seven EuroLeague games this season (through 28 Oct) average 87.1 points scored and 96.9 conceded.
- Baskonia's eight EuroLeague games average 83.6 scored and 94.1 conceded, with 81.7 scored in their three road games (79 at Panathinaikos, 78 at Virtus, 88 at Valencia).
- At home in EuroLeague this season Lyon have scored 82, 82, 92 and 84 (85.0 average) while allowing 89.0.
- Baskonia's three most recent box scores (27 Oct vs Real Madrid) omit Sedekerskis (9.2 ppg), Duarte (11.9 ppg) and Kurucs (5.9 ppg); these are observations, not confirmed absences.
- Head-to-head last season split: Baskonia 78-73 at home on 9 Jan 2026, Lyon 102-95 at home on 3 Oct 2025.
- Lyon beat Partizan 82-75 at home on 28 Oct with two days' rest; Baskonia lost 104-86 to Real Madrid on 27 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonBaskonia under 43.5Estimated chance56.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 29, 01:29

Selected line

180.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

39%

Chance of 181+ points

13 pp below break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 39%.

Move the line main 180.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 39%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 62%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L78–73

Baskoniav

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Jan 9, 2026·EUR

W102–95

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Baskonia

Oct 3, 2025·EUR

L111–75

Baskoniav

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Apr 4, 2025·EUR

W76–69

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Baskonia

Oct 18, 2024·EUR

L94–80

Baskoniav

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Feb 8, 2024·EUR

L81–88

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Baskonia

Nov 17, 2023·EUR

L120–100

Baskoniav

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Apr 6, 2023·EUR

W87–61

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Baskonia

Oct 28, 2022·EUR

L69–72

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Baskonia

Mar 10, 2022·EUR

L91–66

Baskoniav

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Dec 9, 2021·EUR

168.8Avg total points

15Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Lyon-Villeurbanne

2–529%

Baskonia

1–713%

Recent Form

Lyon-Villeurbanne

8W 7L · last 15

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet82–75 Oct 28EUR

vs Nancy78–74 Oct 25LNB

at Zalgiris Kaunas85–105 Oct 23EUR

at Limoges97–94 OTOct 17LNB

at Real Madrid92–111 Oct 15EUR

vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet82–84 Oct 13EUR

vs Roanne96–77 Oct 11LNB

at Paris98–96 Oct 7EUR

at Gravelines-Dunkerque70–65 Oct 4LNB

vs Valencia92–105 Oct 2EUR

at Panathinaikos79–102 Sep 30EUR

at Cholet97–85 Sep 27LNB

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv84–74 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne71–73 Sep 19LNB

vs Cholet75–80 OTMay 30LNB

Baskonia

4W 11L · last 15

vs Real Madrid86–104 Oct 27EUR

at Valencia75–84 Oct 25ACB

at Panathinaikos79–85 Oct 22EUR

at Tenerife77–82 Oct 18ACB

at Virtus Bologna78–86 Oct 16EUR

vs Dubai79–93 Oct 13EUR

vs Joventut Badalona93–73 Oct 11ACB

vs Besiktas84–92 Oct 9EUR

vs Basquet Girona118–78 Oct 4ACB

vs Olimpia Milano86–76 Oct 2EUR

at Valencia88–111 Sep 29EUR

at San Pablo Burgos98–97 Sep 27ACB

vs Olympiacos89–106 Sep 24EUR

at Joventut Badalona84–96 Sep 19SUP

vs Joventut Badalona88–96 Jun 7ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Stats

1–4

Baskonia

Baskonia leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.4pp

53.7%

+0.4pp

54.1%

3-point %+2.3pp

35.5%

+2.3pp

33.2%

Free-throw %9/11 games+7.9pp

71.2%

+7.9pp

79.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.3pp apart

33.2%

1.3pp apart

31.9%

Free throws per shot9/11 games10.2pp apart

42.3%

10.2pp apart

32.1%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+3.5

28.8

+3.5

32.3

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

14.1

0.6 fewer

13.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.