KorisliigaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

KTP Kotka Basket105Honka119

Fri 30 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–853%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: KTP Kotka Basket and Honka.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
KTP Kotka Basket	25	23	24	33
Honka	39	30	26	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

KTP's 7-0 league start meets the league's fastest-scoring side, and the expected score lands around 98.8-89.8 in KTP's favour.

KTP to win is the sporting lean, with the winning margin far less secure. KTP over 48.5 first-half points at 1.9 is the one price that gives something back: 52.6% implied against 56.9%.

Context

KTP have won all seven league games while Honka score heavily and concede heavily, so the contrast between KTP's home defence and Honka's scoring output shapes the matchup. Hirvonen's unresolved availability adds mild uncertainty.

The setback came in KTP's second game of the season against Karhubasket. The stated absence was a minimum of four weeks rather than a return date. Hirvonen's availability for Honka is unresolved; if he remains out, KTP would have one fewer guard option. Official confirmation of his status for this game is pending.
- Tuomas Hirvonen was injured in KTP's second league match against Karhubasket.
- On 13 October, his absence was set at a minimum of four weeks.
Honka entered a two-game week against Kipinä and lost the 21 October away meeting despite scoring 100 points. Their post-game assessment identified defensive standards, inside scoring and Boyd's shooting as the issues. Honka then hosted the rematch on 24 October. It is a one-game concern rather than an established trend, but the same defensive areas could matter against KTP.
- Honka opened a two-game week at Kipinä Basket on 21 October.
- Honka scored 100 points in the away loss.
- The post-game assessment identified defensive standards, the home side's inside play and Boyd's shooting as decisive factors.
- Honka hosted the return game against Kipinä on 24 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Team PointslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

KTP Kotka Basket over 48.5

1.90fair 1.76

Market 52.6% · BetBugs 56.9%

+4.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 48.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this. KTP's unbeaten league start and home defence give it the clearer scoring base, while Honka's high-scoring games and poor defence point to a faster game than KTP's recent home totals. I expect KTP to score near 100 and Honka around 90.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. Honka cover +8.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 78 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Honka, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonHonka +8.5Estimated chance78.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket win in about 76 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance76.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance74.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. Honka cover +3.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Honka, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonHonka +3.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket cover -7.5 (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · HandicaplostKTP Kotka Basket -7.5Estimated chance55.3%

Points7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. Honka score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Honka, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonHonka over 20.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Honka, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKTP Kotka Basket over 22.5Estimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Honka, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 44.5Estimated chance61.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 96.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · Team PointswonKTP Kotka Basket over 96.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. The game has more than 185.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 185.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. The 1st half has more than 92.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 92.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 48.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostKTP Kotka Basket over 48.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 98.8, Honka 89.8. Honka score more than 88.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 7-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 93.6 points for and 78.3 against through seven league games (to 23 Oct).
- KTP's three home league games average 91.3 scored and 70.3 allowed, including a 99-75 win over Kouvot on 23 Oct.
- Honka are 5-2 in Korisliiga, averaging 100.7 scored and 97.3 allowed; their three away league games average 105.0 scored and 104.0 allowed (to 24 Oct).
- Honka shot 28.6% from three and 53.4% from two over 15 tracked games, while KTP shot 38.4% from three and 79.6% from the free-throw line.
- KTP won the most recent meeting 89-68 at home on 6 Mar 2026, though that was with last season's rosters.
BetBugs · Team PointswonHonka over 88.5Estimated chance55.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 29, 01:29

Selected line

185.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

59%

Chance of 186+ points

+2 pp above break-even

Over 1.75 needs 57% to break even. BetBugs sees 59%.

Move the line main 185.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 59%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W89–68

KTP Kotka Basketv Honka

Honka

Mar 6, 2026·KOR

W93–98

Honkav

KTP Kotka Basket

Feb 3, 2026·KOR

L89–84

Honkav

KTP Kotka Basket

Dec 28, 2025·KOR

W97–81

KTP Kotka Basketv Honka

Honka

Oct 21, 2025·KOR

W89–94

Honkav

KTP Kotka Basket

Feb 28, 2025·KOR

W87–67

KTP Kotka Basketv Honka

Honka

Feb 26, 2025·KOR

L92–96

KTP Kotka Basketv Honka

Honka

Dec 3, 2024·KOR

L94–87

Honkav

KTP Kotka Basket

Oct 5, 2024·KOROT

W91–78

KTP Kotka Basketv Honka

Honka

Jan 20, 2023·KOR

W78–94

Honkav

KTP Kotka Basket

Nov 22, 2022·KOR

174.6Avg total points

11.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Korisliiga · Korisliiga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

KTP Kotka Basket

7–0100%

Honka

5–271%

Recent Form

KTP Kotka Basket

11W 4L · last 15

vs Kouvot Kouvola99–75 Oct 23KOR

at Kouvot Kouvola95–89 Oct 21KOR

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki100–89 Oct 17KOR

at Salon Vilpas102–81 Oct 14KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere88–72 Oct 9KOR

at Karhu Basket84–78 Oct 3KOR

vs Bisons Loimaa87–64 Sep 29KOR

vs Kipina86–78 Sep 16SUO

at Karhu Basket95–88 Sep 9SUO

vs Helsinki Seagulls70–78 Apr 9KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls79–89 Apr 7KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls72–81 Apr 5KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls87–85 Apr 1KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls83–95 Mar 30KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls92–76 Mar 27KOR

Honka

6W 9L · last 15

vs Kipina94–96 Oct 24KOR

at Kipina100–109 Oct 21KOR

vs Lahti Basketball100–86 Oct 16KOR

at Kataja108–99 Oct 10KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere97–96 OTOct 6KOR

vs Kouvot Kouvola99–91 Oct 3KOR

at Salon Vilpas107–104 Sep 29KOR

vs Kouvot Kouvola84–96 Sep 16SUO

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki70–93 Sep 12SUO

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki72–92 Apr 4KOR

vs UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki72–88 Apr 1KOR

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki90–95 Mar 29KOR

vs UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki88–87 Mar 27KOR

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki69–88 Mar 23KOR

at Karhu Basket80–92 Mar 18KOR

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

KTP Kotka Basket

Stats

3–2

Honka

KTP Kotka Basket leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.6pp

48.8%

+4.6pp

53.4%

3-point %+9.8pp

38.4%

+9.8pp

28.6%

Free-throw %+8.6pp

79.6%

+8.6pp

71.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.1pp apart

38.5%

7.1pp apart

31.4%

Free throws per shot2.9pp apart

30.1%

2.9pp apart

33.0%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.9

36.5

+2.9

33.6

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

13.3

0.6 fewer

12.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.