EuroCupFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tortona86Rostock83

Wed 28 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Tortona and Rostock.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tortona	23	16	18	29
Rostock	24	20	26	13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Tortona's 2-2 EuroCup start, with 89 points in both home games, meets a Rostock side that is 1-3 and has averaged 71.5 points in away EuroCup games.

The likely outcome is a Tortona win, with a score near 89-79 after 40 minutes. At 1.83, over 39.5 combined points in the third quarter is the one potential-value price; the chance is nearer 61.5% than the 54.6% implied. No other price carries that edge.

Context

Tortona have scored 89 in both home EuroCup games while Rostock have averaged 71.5 points in two away EuroCup games; Rostock's 35.2 rebounds per game and three-point volume are the main counterweights.

Rostock's latest reported EuroCup results are an 82-70 loss at Le Mans and a 110-79 defeat to Aris. The sequence provides recent competition context ahead of the group game in Tortona.
- Rostock lost 82-70 at Le Mans in EuroCup Round 2 on 12 October.
- Aris beat Rostock 110-79 in EuroCup Round 4 on 18 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 39.5

1.83fair 1.63

Market 54.6% · BetBugs 61.5%

+6.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this. Tortona's home EuroCup scoring has been steady at 89 while Rostock have managed only 71.5 per away EuroCup game; Tortona also get to the line more often and turn the ball over less. That points to a home score near 89 and a Rostock score in the high 70s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona win in about 79 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTortonaEstimated chance78.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 77 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonTortonaEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance70.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 15 for Rostock, across seasons and competitions.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostTortona +1.5Estimated chance69.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance64.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 15 for Rostock, across seasons and competitions.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTortona -0.5Estimated chance64.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance59%

Points4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 39.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Rostock score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonRostock over 18.5Estimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. Rostock score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonRostock under 20.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 89.2, Rostock 79.1. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Through four EuroCup games (table observed 27 Oct 2026), Tortona are 2-2 with 82.5 points scored and 84.0 allowed per game; Rostock are 1-3 with 77.3 scored and 93.0 allowed per game.
- Tortona scored 89 in both home EuroCup games: 89-79 vs Burgos on 21 Oct 2026 and 89-83 vs Le Mans on 7 Oct 2026.
- Rostock's two away EuroCup games (14 Oct at Le Mans, 29 Sep at Hapoel Jerusalem) produced 71.5 points scored and 88.0 allowed per game.
- Across current-season box scores, Tortona has a 37.2% free-throw rate (232 free throws/624 field-goal attempts, 10 games) versus Rostock's 25.5% (203/796, 12 games); Rostock takes 40.1% of its points from three on 35.6% shooting (475 attempts).
- Rostock averages 35.2 rebounds and 13.7 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Tortona averages 31.6 rebounds and 10.7 turnovers in 15 games.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 43.5Estimated chance57%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 27, 18:29

Selected line

168.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

51%

Chance of 169+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 51%.

Move the line main 168.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

League table

EuroCup · Eurocup - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Tortona

2–250%

Rostock

1–325%

Recent Form

Tortona

5W 10L · last 15

vs Basket Napoli90–92 Oct 25LEG

vs San Pablo Burgos89–79 Oct 21EUR

vs Maxima Roma75–89 Oct 18LEG

at Aris68–88 Oct 14EUR

at Reggiana86–93 Oct 11LEG

vs Le Mans89–83 Oct 7EUR

at BC Roma70–108 Oct 4LEG

at Rigas Zelli84–86 Sep 30EUR

vs Verona101–93 Sep 27LEG

vs Venezia90–98 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia83–89 May 26LEG

vs Venezia89–71 May 24LEG

vs Venezia82–71 May 22LEG

at Venezia75–87 May 19LEG

at Venezia82–89 May 17LEG

Rostock

7W 8L · last 15

at Syntainics MBC98–103 OTOct 24BBL

vs Aris79–110 Oct 20EUR

at Le Mans70–82 Oct 14EUR

vs Wurzburg101–62 Oct 10BBL

vs Rigas Zelli87–86 Oct 6EUR

at Hamburg91–84 Oct 3BBL

at Hapoel Jerusalem73–94 Sep 29EUR

at Basketball Braunschweig82–83 Sep 27BBL

at Ludwigsburg78–81 Sep 24BBL

vs Phoenix Hagen102–92 Sep 19BBL

at Hamburg81–90 Sep 11GER

at Trier69–76 May 14BBL

vs Ludwigsburg91–71 May 12BBL

vs Hamburg103–71 May 10BBL

at Vechta90–78 May 8BBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tortona

Stats

3–2

Rostock

Tortona leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %14/15 games+0.2pp

52.0%

+0.2pp

51.8%

3-point %14/15 games+0.9pp

34.7%

+0.9pp

35.6%

Free-throw %10/12 games+0.4pp

76.3%

+0.4pp

75.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/15 games9.4pp apart

30.7%

9.4pp apart

40.1%

Free throws per shot10/12 games11.7pp apart

37.2%

11.7pp apart

25.5%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game14/15 games+3.6

31.6

+3.6

35.2

Turnovers per game3.0 fewer

10.7

3.0 fewer

13.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.