Champions LeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alba Berlin103Bilbao100

Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–569%

Points by period: Alba Berlin and Bilbao.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Alba Berlin	24	19	31	29
Bilbao	26	22	24	28

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Alba Berlin and Bilbao both arrive 2-0 in Group G, so top spot is settled in Berlin.

The 91.8-88.1 expected 40-minute score makes Alba the likelier winner, backed by 89.5 points per home game. Prices are quoted across the card, but none of the selections we looked at stands out at our numbers.

Context

Both teams are 2-0 in Group G, so the group lead is decided here. Alba's six home games at 89.5 points scored and 82.5 conceded give them a modest edge, while Bilbao's 95.0 points per game in 2026-27 keeps the margin small. No player availability is established for either side.

Pedro Calles' side found separation during the final 14 minutes against Ulm. That result provides immediate competitive context before Bilbao visit, but it does not establish any player availability or rotation change.
- Alba turned a 55-55 score with 14 minutes remaining into a 98-82 victory over Ulm.
The game is a direct contest for the Group G lead. It defines the competition context for this fixture without implying an advantage or changing either squad's availability.
- Both clubs are unbeaten in Champions League Group G entering Wednesday's meeting.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alba Berlin and 15 for Bilbao, across seasons and competitions.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonAlba Berlin +5.5Estimated chance80.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin win in about 62 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlba BerlinEstimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonAlba BerlinEstimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alba Berlin and 15 for Bilbao, across seasons and competitions.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostAlba Berlin +0.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostAlba BerlinEstimated chance56.4%

Points8 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. The game has more than 174.5 points (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 174.5Estimated chance64.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. The 1st half has more than 86.5 points in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 86.5Estimated chance63.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Bilbao score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · Team PointswonBilbao over 85.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin score more than 89.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · Team PointswonAlba Berlin over 89.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 43.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin score more than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostAlba Berlin over 44.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonAlba Berlin over 21.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Bilbao score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonBilbao over 42.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. The 1st quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. The 3rd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 91.8, Bilbao 88.1. Alba Berlin score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba Berlin's nine 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 87.0 points scored and 85.7 conceded; at home they average 89.5 scored and 82.5 conceded over six games.
- Bilbao's seven 2026-27 games through 25 Oct: 95.0 scored and 91.9 conceded; away they average 92.3 scored and 100.7 conceded over three games, one of which went to overtime.
- In Champions League Group G through 27 Oct both are 2-0: Alba have 200 points for and 165 against; Bilbao 189 for and 165 against.
- Across the 15-game overall samples Alba shoot 55.7% on two-pointers and 35.4% on three-pointers with 15.4 turnovers; Bilbao shoot 52.8% and 35.7% with 12.8 turnovers.
- Alba guard Kayil Jack (10.1 points, 19.3 minutes per game) has not appeared in the last two box scores since 13 Oct, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostAlba Berlin over 22.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 28, 01:04

Selected line

174.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

65%

Chance of 175+ points

+11 pp above break-even

Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 65%.

Move the line main 174.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 65%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 36%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W86–68

Alba Berlinv Bilbao

Bilbao

Dec 27, 2017·EUR

W86–94

Bilbaov

Alba Berlin

Nov 8, 2017·EUR

L88–92

Alba Berlinv Bilbao

Bilbao

Nov 23, 2016·EUR

W77–85

Bilbaov

Alba Berlin

Oct 19, 2016·EUR

W77–70

Alba Berlinv Bilbao

Bilbao

Apr 17, 2010·EUR

164.6Avg total points

9Avg margin

5meetings

League table

Champions League · Champions League - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Alba Berlin

2–0100%

Bilbao

2–0100%

Recent Form

Alba Berlin

10W 5L · last 15

vs Ulm98–82 Oct 25BBL

vs Bamberg83–71 Oct 19GER

vs Igokea90–79 Oct 13CL

at Trier75–95 Oct 10BBL

at Slavia Prague ERA NBK110–86 Oct 7CL

vs Bamberg83–98 Oct 3BBL

at Bayern61–95 Sep 26BBL

vs Frankfurt94–83 Sep 24BBL

vs Chemnitz89–82 Sep 18BBL

at Bayern84–81 Jun 21BBL

vs Bayern71–61 Jun 19BBL

vs Bayern83–91 Jun 17BBL

at Bayern86–79 Jun 14BBL

at Bayern94–102 Jun 12BBL

vs Bamberg97–66 Jun 9BBL

Bilbao

9W 6L · last 15

vs MoraBanc Andorra88–76 Oct 25ACB

at Real Madrid84–119 Oct 18ACB

vs Slavia Prague ERA NBK97–86 Oct 14CL

vs San Pablo Burgos96–87 Oct 11ACB

at Igokea92–79 Oct 6CL

at Leyma Coruna101–104 OTOct 4ACB

vs Manresa107–92 Sep 26ACB

vs Valencia71–88 Jun 5ACB

at Valencia80–83 Jun 3ACB

at Tenerife87–82 May 29ACB

vs Basquet Girona86–80 May 24ACB

at Valencia83–88 May 17ACB

vs Real Madrid88–82 May 14ACB

at Forca Lleida81–90 May 10ACB

vs Granada88–83 May 3ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Alba Berlin

Stats

2–3

Bilbao

Bilbao leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.9pp

55.7%

+2.9pp

52.8%

3-point %+0.3pp

35.4%

+0.3pp

35.7%

Free-throw %+0.9pp

74.4%

+0.9pp

75.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.9pp apart

38.4%

0.9pp apart

37.5%

Free throws per shot10.5pp apart

29.8%

10.5pp apart

40.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.5

32.8

+0.5

32.3

Turnovers per game2.6 fewer

15.4

2.6 fewer

12.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.