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Predictions graded

Okapi Aalst114Donar Groningen90

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Okapi Aalst and Donar Groningen.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Okapi Aalst	31	28	30	25
Donar Groningen	24	29	12	25

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Aalst's home scoring against Donar's thinner offense decides this: the likely score after 40 minutes is 91.8-79.7, so Aalst are clear favourites.

Donar have had the longer break, 10.9 days to Aalst's 7.8, and won the last meeting in Groningen 85-78. The one price that offers something is Aalst to be ahead by more than 4.5 points at half-time at 1.84.

Context

Both teams are well rested, 7.8 days for Aalst and 10.9 for Donar, with no availability factor established; conditions are otherwise unremarkable.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result9 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst win in about 83 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOkapi AalstEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 82 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonOkapi AalstEstimated chance81.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Okapi Aalst and 15 for Donar Groningen, across seasons and competitions.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonOkapi Aalst +2.5Estimated chance75.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonOkapi AalstEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostOkapi AalstEstimated chance67.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonOkapi AalstEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst cover -1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Okapi Aalst and 15 for Donar Groningen, across seasons and competitions.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostOkapi Aalst -1.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonOkapi AalstEstimated chance61.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.84
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst cover -4.5 in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonOkapi Aalst -4.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst cover -9.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · HandicapwonOkapi Aalst -9.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst cover -1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonOkapi Aalst -1.5Estimated chance57.8%

Points1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Okapi Aalst score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonOkapi Aalst over 22.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Donar Groningen score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostDonar Groningen under 20.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Okapi Aalst 91.8, Donar Groningen 79.7. Donar Groningen score fewer than 81.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Okapi Aalst's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 88.7 points scored and 86.0 conceded, including a 95-87 home win over Oostende on 3 October 2026.
- Donar Groningen's three 2026-27 BNXT League games average 76.3 scored and 81.3 conceded; they lost 63-90 at home to Spirou Charleroi on 14 October 2026.
- Across 15 box-score games through 17 October 2026, Aalst shoots 57.6% on two-pointers, 40.2% on three-pointers and 77.9% from the free-throw line.
- Across 14 box-score games through 14 October 2026, Donar shoots 34.4% on three-pointers and 67.9% from the free-throw line and averages 14.2 turnovers.
- The latest head-to-head at Aalst was 111-82 on 28 March 2026; Donar won the previous meeting 85-78 at home on 18 October 2025.
- Aalst has had 7.8 days since its last game and Donar 10.9 days, so both are rested, with Donar coming off the longer layoff.
BetBugs · Team PointslostDonar Groningen under 81.5Estimated chance56.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 25, 07:29

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

47%

Chance of 174+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 47%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W111–82

Okapi Aalstv

Donar Groningen

Mar 28, 2026·BNX

L85–78

Donar Groningenv

Okapi Aalst

Oct 18, 2025·BNX

L91–84

Donar Groningenv

Okapi Aalst

Feb 16, 2025·BNX

W93–91

Okapi Aalstv

Donar Groningen

Oct 5, 2024·BNX

178.8Avg total points

11.3Avg margin

4meetings

League table

BNXT League · BNXT League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Okapi Aalst

2–167%

Donar Groningen

2–167%

Recent Form

Okapi Aalst

10W 5L · last 15

at Leiden77–92 Oct 17BNX

at Mechelen94–79 Oct 10BNX

vs Oostende95–87 Oct 3BNX

vs Oostende77–83 May 29PRO

at Oostende60–78 May 26PRO

vs Oostende101–97 May 24PRO

at Oostende80–89 May 22PRO

at Mechelen90–85 May 17PRO

vs Mechelen93–84 May 15PRO

vs LWD Basket118–90 May 9BNX

at Limburg85–99 May 6BNX

vs Rotterdam102–92 May 2BNX

at Leiden97–85 Apr 25BNX

vs Belfius Mons98–78 Apr 19BNX

at Belfius Mons104–77 Apr 17BNX

Donar Groningen

6W 9L · last 15

vs Spirou Charleroi63–90 Oct 14BNX

vs Leuven Bears81–78 Oct 6BNX

at Kortrijk85–76 Oct 2BNX

at Tal Tech70–83 Sep 30ENB

at Anwil Wloclawek81–97 Sep 24ENB

at Zwolle62–70 Sep 12SUP

vs Leiden77–79 May 31DBL

at Leiden71–91 May 29DBL

vs Leiden97–89 May 26DBL

at Leiden78–90 May 24DBL

vs Leiden91–68 May 22DBL

vs Limburg71–82 May 9BNX

at Rotterdam90–76 May 6BNX

vs Oostende84–82 May 3BNX

vs Den Bosch67–81 Apr 28BNX

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Okapi Aalst

Stats

4–1

Donar Groningen

14 games

Okapi Aalst leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+2.5pp

57.6%

+2.5pp

55.1%

3-point %+5.8pp

40.2%

+5.8pp

34.4%

Free-throw %+10.0pp

77.9%

+10.0pp

67.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.3pp apart

35.3%

4.3pp apart

39.6%

Free throws per shot14.0pp apart

37.9%

14.0pp apart

23.9%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.6

30.7

+1.6

32.3

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

13.3

0.9 fewer

14.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Okapi Aalst -4.5

Result9 of 11 landed

Points1 of 3 landed

Total points

League table

Recent Form

Okapi Aalst

Donar Groningen