LPBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

FC Porto93CAB Madeira82

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: FC Porto and CAB Madeira.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
FC Porto	26	22	18	27
CAB Madeira	15	20	21	26

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Porto's 3-0 LPB start meets a Madeira side with eight days' rest, and the gap still looks wide: Porto should win comfortably, with the expected score around 93-77.

The one price that stands out is over 40.5 combined points in the second quarter at 1.71, where 62.9% against 58.5% implied is a small edge. Madeira under 76.5 team points at 1.7 does not hold up.

Context

Madeira have had eight days since their Oct 17 win over Sporting CP, while Porto played a Champions League game at Bnei Herzliya on Oct 21 and had under four days between games.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

2nd Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 40.5

1.71fair 1.59

Market 58.5% · BetBugs 62.9%

+4.4ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. The 2nd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 63 of 100 games like this. Porto have the stronger current record, better shooting and fewer turnovers, and they won the latest meeting by 42 points. Madeira's current LPB scoring sits around 80 and their away output has been modest, so I place them in the high 70s against a Porto side that should score in the low 90s at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto win in about 90 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC PortoEstimated chance89.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 88 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonFC PortoEstimated chance88.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 81 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance80.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for FC Porto and 15 for CAB Madeira, across seasons and competitions.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonFC Porto -0.5Estimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostFC PortoEstimated chance65.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for FC Porto and 15 for CAB Madeira, across seasons and competitions.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostFC Porto -0.5Estimated chance65.5%

Points3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.71
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. The 2nd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 40.5Estimated chance62.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostFC Porto over 22.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. CAB Madeira score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonCAB Madeira over 17.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto score fewer than 24.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostFC Porto under 24.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: FC Porto 93.3, CAB Madeira 77.4. FC Porto score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- FC Porto are 3-0 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 99.3 points for and 90.0 against in games through Oct 16.
- CAB Madeira are 1-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, averaging 80.0 points for and 80.0 against through Oct 17; their only away game was a 69-point outing at CD Povoa on Oct 10.
- Across six current-season games through Oct 21, FC Porto averaged 89.7 points, with 14-game box-score shooting of 53.3% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers.
- CAB Madeira's 15-game box-score shooting is 52.3% on two-pointers and 33.3% on three-pointers, with 14.4 turnovers per game versus Porto's 13.2.
- In the latest head-to-head on Jan 14, 2026, Porto won 103-61 at CAB Madeira in the Taca de Portugal.
- CAB Madeira have had eight days' rest since Oct 17; Porto had 3.9 days after a Champions League game on Oct 21.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonFC Porto under 23.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 25, 13:00

Selected line

170.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

51%

Chance of 171+ points

5 pp below break-even

Over 1.78 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 51%.

Move the line main 170.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W61–103

CAB Madeirav

FC Porto

Jan 14, 2026·TAC

W80–98

CAB Madeirav

FC Porto

Dec 8, 2022·LPB

W88–62

FC Portov

CAB Madeira

Sep 24, 2022·LPB

L90–86

CAB Madeirav

FC Porto

Dec 17, 2021·LPB

W71–41

FC Portov

CAB Madeira

Oct 3, 2021·LPB

W85–98

CAB Madeirav

FC Porto

May 2, 2021·LPB

L86–79

CAB Madeirav

FC Porto

Apr 30, 2021·LPB

W77–64

FC Portov

CAB Madeira

Apr 25, 2021·LPB

W105–53

FC Portov

CAB Madeira

Apr 23, 2021·LPB

W99–72

FC Portov

CAB Madeira

Apr 3, 2021·LPB

159.8Avg total points

23.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LPB · LPB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

FC Porto

3–0100%

CAB Madeira

1–233%

Recent Form

FC Porto

12W 3L · last 15

at Bnei Herzliya86–74 Oct 21CL

at Esgueira95–91 Oct 16LPB

vs Benfica93–86 Oct 11LPB

at Bonn74–78 Oct 7CL

at CA Queluz110–93 Oct 2LPB

vs Sporting CP80–76 Sep 26SUP

vs Benfica75–71 Jun 14LPB

vs Benfica87–63 Jun 12LPB

at Benfica102–98 OTJun 9LPB

at Benfica73–89 Jun 7LPB

vs Sporting CP94–86 May 31LPB

vs Sporting CP86–76 May 29LPB

at Sporting CP73–88 May 25LPB

at Sporting CP81–70 May 23LPB

at Imortal102–79 May 14LPB

CAB Madeira

8W 7L · last 15

vs Sporting CP93–84 Oct 17LPB

at CD Povoa69–73 Oct 10LPB

vs Vitoria78–83 Oct 3LPB

at CD Povoa72–90 May 31PRO

at CD Povoa61–78 May 30PRO

vs CD Povoa90–72 May 24PRO

vs Illiabum76–60 May 16PRO

at Illiabum88–74 May 9PRO

at Imortal B97–78 May 1PRO

vs Ginasio Olhanense77–101 Apr 25PRO

at Ginasio Olhanense75–65 Apr 22PRO

at CD Povoa75–81 Apr 18PRO

at Maia100–108 OTApr 4PRO

vs Portimonense81–74 Mar 28PRO

at Ginasio95–86 Mar 21PRO

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

FC Porto

Stats

4–1

CAB Madeira

FC Porto leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %14/15 games+1.0pp

53.3%

+1.0pp

52.3%

3-point %14/15 games+2.2pp

35.5%

+2.2pp

33.3%

Free-throw %14/15 games+5.4pp

69.2%

+5.4pp

74.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/15 games2.5pp apart

36.2%

2.5pp apart

38.7%

Free throws per shot14/15 games1.8pp apart

30.4%

1.8pp apart

28.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game14/15 games+1.0

36.2

+1.0

35.2

Turnovers per game1.2 fewer

13.2

1.2 fewer

14.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.