Premijer ligaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alkar75Split76

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Points by period: Alkar and Split.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Alkar	24	23	16	12
Split	20	16	21	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Split arrive at Alkar having won all four meetings last season, and their 3-1 league start against Alkar's 1-3 points to a road win, with an 85.0 to 75.4 edge after 40 minutes.

Alkar's 33.8 rebounds a game to Split's 30.7, plus nearly seven days' rest, give the home side something to work with. No price stands out at our numbers: the quoted under 158.5 combined points at 1.72 and Split under 83.5 points at 1.71 both lean the wrong way.

Context

Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21 and have roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, against about 6.9 days for Alkar since 2026-10-18. Alkar also hold a modest rebounding edge, 33.8 to 30.7 over 15 games, which is the main sporting counterweight to Split's league form and head-to-head record.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split win in about 78 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSplitEstimated chance77.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 76 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonSplitEstimated chance75.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostSplitEstimated chance69.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostSplitEstimated chance63.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alkar and 15 for Split, across seasons and competitions.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostSplit -0.5Estimated chance63.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostSplitEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonSplitEstimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alkar and 15 for Split, across seasons and competitions.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonSplit -0.5Estimated chance58.5%

Points3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split score more than 16.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 80 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alkar and 15 for Split, across seasons and competitions.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonSplit over 16.5Estimated chance80.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 34.5 points in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alkar and 15 for Split, across seasons and competitions.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 34.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Alkar score fewer than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alkar and 15 for Split, across seasons and competitions.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonAlkar under 20.5Estimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. Split score more than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · Team PointslostSplit over 83.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alkar 75.4, Split 85.0. The game has more than 158.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Alkar are 1-3 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 81.0 and allowing 86.5 per game in that competition.
- Split are 3-1 in the Premijer liga through 2026-10-18, scoring 83.5 and allowing 71.3 per game, with road wins at Dubrava (86-62) and Dubrovnik (81-66).
- Across 15 tracked games Split shoot better than Alkar: 55.6% vs 50.3% on two-pointers, 35.3% vs 32.3% on three-pointers and 72.3% vs 65.6% on free throws.
- Split won all four meetings with Alkar in 2025-26, by 17 (2025-10-17), 27 (Croatian Cup, 2025-12-10), 10 (2026-01-09) and 16 (2026-03-29).
- Alkar average 33.8 rebounds to Split's 30.7 over 15 games, a small edge on the boards that helps the home side.
- Split played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 2026-10-21, roughly 3.9 days before tip-off, while Alkar have had about 6.9 days since their 2026-10-18 game.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 158.5Estimated chance56.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 25, 07:29

Selected line

158.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

56%

Chance of 159+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.77 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 56%.

Move the line main 158.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 44%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L80–64

Splitv

Alkar

Mar 29, 2026·PRE

L87–97

Alkarv

Split

Jan 9, 2026·PRE

L83–56

Splitv

Alkar

Dec 10, 2025·CRO

L79–62

Splitv

Alkar

Oct 17, 2025·PRE

L96–81

Splitv

Alkar

May 21, 2025·PRE

W83–72

Alkarv

Split

May 18, 2025·PRE

L97–71

Splitv

Alkar

May 15, 2025·PRE

L103–66

Splitv

Alkar

Mar 14, 2025·PRE

L60–77

Alkarv

Split

Feb 15, 2025·CRO

L86–60

Splitv

Alkar

Jan 21, 2025·PRE

156Avg total points

20.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Premijer liga · Premijer liga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Alkar

1–325%

Split

3–175%

Recent Form

Alkar

4W 11L · last 15

at Virtus Zagreb78–83 Oct 18PRE

at Spartak Pleven82–93 Oct 14ENB

vs Skrljevo73–88 Oct 10PRE

at Samobor95–91 OTOct 4PRE

at Zrinjski Mostar92–87 OTSep 30ENB

vs Cibona78–84 Sep 27PRE

at Dubrovnik70–87 May 9PRE

at GKK Sibenka88–91 May 1PRE

vs Dinamo Zagreb77–72 Apr 25PRE

at Dubrava69–85 Apr 19PRE

vs Kvarner77–69 Apr 15PRE

at Cedevita Junior62–80 Apr 11PRE

vs Zadar58–69 Apr 4PRE

at Split64–80 Mar 29PRE

vs Cibona65–70 Mar 21PRE

Split

9W 6L · last 15

at Trier80–100 Oct 21FIB

vs Zadar73–84 Oct 18PRE

vs Trepca69–78 Oct 14FIB

at Dubrava86–62 Oct 10PRE

at Opava74–68 Oct 7FIB

vs Kvarner94–73 Oct 2PRE

at Dubrovnik81–66 Sep 26PRE

at Cibona76–78 May 28PRE

vs Cibona83–78 May 25PRE

at Cibona79–84 May 22PRE

at Zabok99–93 OTMay 17PRE

vs Zabok86–80 May 13PRE

vs Cedevita Junior87–70 May 9PRE

at Zadar67–90 May 3PRE

at Dinamo Zagreb96–89 Apr 29PRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Alkar

Stats

1–4

Split

Split leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+5.3pp

50.3%

+5.3pp

55.6%

3-point %+3.0pp

32.3%

+3.0pp

35.3%

Free-throw %+6.7pp

65.6%

+6.7pp

72.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.9pp apart

32.5%

2.9pp apart

35.4%

Free throws per shot5.0pp apart

27.2%

5.0pp apart

32.2%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.1

33.8

+3.1

30.7

Turnovers per game0.7 fewer

13.5

0.7 fewer

12.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.