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Predictions graded

Alba Berlin98Ulm82

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Alba Berlin and Ulm.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Alba Berlin	23	22	23	30
Ulm	18	25	16	23

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two teams sitting 2-3 in the BBL meet with little between them, and a full 40 minutes points to Alba Berlin edging Ulm around 87-85, helped by their home scoring.

The price does not follow: Alba at 1.51 to win, or 1.59 to lead after 40 minutes, asks for more than their form justifies. Ulm to be ahead after 40 minutes at 2.84 is the one that holds up.

Context

Both teams are 2-3 in the BBL and the projected 40-minute margin is about two points, with Alba holding roughly two extra days of rest and no confirmed availability change on either side.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Result after 40 minlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ulm

2.84fair 2.45

Market 35.2% · BetBugs 40.8%

+5.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 41 of 100 games like this. Alba's home scoring and Ulm's road scoring point to a close game, and Berlin should have a small home-court advantage. Ulm's current BBL offense is slightly stronger overall, but their defense has allowed enough for Alba to reach the high 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alba Berlin and 15 for Ulm, across seasons and competitions.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostUlm +2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Alba Berlin win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlba BerlinEstimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Alba Berlin cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Alba Berlin and 15 for Ulm, across seasons and competitions.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostAlba Berlin +0.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm cover +4.5 (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · HandicaplostUlm +4.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostUlm +1.5Estimated chance55.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm cover +2.5 in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonUlm +2.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Alba Berlin are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonAlba BerlinEstimated chance54.6%

Points2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm score more than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · Team PointslostUlm over 83.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostUlm over 20.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonUlm over 20.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Alba Berlin 87.1, Ulm 84.9. Ulm score more than 41.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Alba's five 2026-27 BBL games: 80.4 points scored and 90.6 allowed; Ulm's five: 82.0 scored and 86.2 allowed.
- In 2026-27 BBL home games Alba scored 88.7 and allowed 87.7 over three games; Ulm on the road scored 85.7 and allowed 88.0 over three, including one overtime game.
- Across 15 tracked games, Alba shot 54.9% on twos, 34.3% on threes and 71.3% on free throws; Ulm shot 56.6%, 34.9% and 71.5%.
- Rebounding and turnovers are close: Alba averaged 33.4 rebounds and 15.3 turnovers; Ulm averaged 33.0 and 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Alba has had 5.96 days rest since Oct 19, while Ulm has had 4 days since Oct 21; in the last three 2025-26 meetings Alba won twice, including 89-77 at Ulm on Apr 22 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonUlm over 41.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 25, 13:01

Selected line

171.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 172+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.89 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 171.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W77–89

Ulmv

Alba Berlin

Apr 22, 2026·BBL

L66–67

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

Dec 20, 2025·BBL

W90–68

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

Oct 19, 2025·GER

L93–84

Ulmv

Alba Berlin

May 24, 2025·BBL

L62–74

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

May 21, 2025·BBL

L94–83

Ulmv

Alba Berlin

May 17, 2025·BBL

L101–90

Ulmv

Alba Berlin

Mar 9, 2025·BBLOT

W96–88

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

Nov 9, 2024·BBL

L79–87

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

Feb 17, 2024·GER

W98–88

Alba Berlinv Ulm

Ulm

Feb 4, 2024·BBL

167.4Avg total points

10.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

BBL · BBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Alba Berlin

2–340%

Ulm

2–340%

Recent Form

Alba Berlin

9W 6L · last 15

vs Bamberg83–71 Oct 19GER

vs Igokea90–79 Oct 13CL

at Trier75–95 Oct 10BBL

at Slavia Prague ERA NBK110–86 Oct 7CL

vs Bamberg83–98 Oct 3BBL

at Bayern61–95 Sep 26BBL

vs Frankfurt94–83 Sep 24BBL

vs Chemnitz89–82 Sep 18BBL

at Bayern84–81 Jun 21BBL

vs Bayern71–61 Jun 19BBL

vs Bayern83–91 Jun 17BBL

at Bayern86–79 Jun 14BBL

at Bayern94–102 Jun 12BBL

vs Bamberg97–66 Jun 9BBL

at Bamberg67–81 Jun 6BBL

Ulm

5W 10L · last 15

at PAOK78–87 Oct 21EUR

vs Phoenix Hagen98–107 Oct 17GER

vs KK Bosna102–93 Oct 14EUR

at Vechta92–97 OTOct 10BBL

at Manresa89–101 Oct 7EUR

at Syntainics MBC72–89 Oct 3BBL

vs Balkan98–84 Sep 30EUR

vs Wurzburg67–90 Sep 27BBL

at Phoenix Hagen93–78 Sep 25BBL

vs Ludwigsburg86–77 Sep 20BBL

vs Bamberg87–96 May 23BBL

at Bamberg87–90 May 18BBL

at Bamberg74–80 May 16BBL

at Frankfurt103–64 May 10BBL

at Wurzburg84–98 May 2BBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Alba Berlin

Stats

1–4

Ulm

Ulm leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+1.7pp

54.9%

+1.7pp

56.6%

3-point %+0.6pp

34.3%

+0.6pp

34.9%

Free-throw %15/11 games+0.2pp

71.3%

+0.2pp

71.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.5pp apart

38.4%

7.5pp apart

30.9%

Free throws per shot15/11 games2.2pp apart

30.1%

2.2pp apart

27.9%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.4

33.4

+0.4

33.0

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

15.3

0.6 fewer

14.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.