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Predictions graded

Vaerlose64Holbaek-Stenhus68

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Vaerlose and Holbaek-Stenhus.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Vaerlose	10	14	19	21
Holbaek-Stenhus	11	29	17	11

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Vaerlose bring home court and four wins over Holbaek-Stenhus last season into a game against a Holbaek side averaging 71.3 points in three away games this season.

Vaerlose are favoured, about 87-84 after 40 minutes, but their short prices do not appeal. Holbaek-Stenhus to be ahead at half-time at 2.75 is the quoted price that offers value.

Context

No confirmed availability changes; Vaerlose's home court and Holbaek's 71.3 points per away game this season are the main sporting conditions.

Casaletti, a 1.83m Italian point guard born in 2006, came through the US pathway and got his senior minutes in Denmark's top division with Holbæk-Stenhus. His switch to CB Alcalá, reported on 30 September, takes a young ball-handler out of the club's pool shortly before the trip to Værløse. His involvement had been limited to spot minutes, so the practical effect on this game looks small unless the visitors find themselves short of guards on the day. No replacement has been announced.
- The 1.83m Italian point guard's move to CB Alcalá was reported on 30 September 2026.
- Casaletti, born in 2006, developed in the United States before playing in Denmark's first league.
- He had earned minutes with Holbæk-Stenhus in the Danish top division before the switch.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Holbaek-Stenhus

2.75fair 2.50

Market 36.4% · BetBugs 40%

+3.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Holbaek-Stenhus are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 40 of 100 games like this. Vaerlose's four recent wins over Holbaek and home court outweigh Holbaek's slightly better table position, while both teams' current defenses have conceded heavily. I expect a close game with Vaerlose scoring in the high 80s and Holbaek in the low 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Holbaek-Stenhus, across seasons and competitions.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonVaerlose +4.5Estimated chance76.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Holbaek-Stenhus, across seasons and competitions.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostVaerlose +1.5Estimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose win in about 61 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVaerloseEstimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostVaerloseEstimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostVaerloseEstimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Holbaek-Stenhus cover +5.5 (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · HandicapwonHolbaek-Stenhus +5.5Estimated chance55.2%

Points2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. The 3rd quarter has more than 38.5 points in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Holbaek-Stenhus, across seasons and competitions.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 38.5Estimated chance69.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Holbaek-Stenhus, across seasons and competitions.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostVaerlose over 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Vaerlose score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonVaerlose under 22.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 87.1, Holbaek-Stenhus 83.6. Holbaek-Stenhus score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Holbaek-Stenhus, across seasons and competitions.
- Vaerlose are 1-5 in the 2026-27 Basketligaen through 18 October, averaging 81.3 points scored and 94.8 conceded.
- Holbaek-Stenhus are 2-4 through 15 October, averaging 77.7 scored and 90.7 conceded; both wins came at home.
- Holbaek's three current away games produced 71.3 points per game: 83 at Horsens (15 Oct), 75 at Svendborg (26 Sep) and 56 at Naestved (24 Sep).
- Vaerlose won all four 2025-26 Basketligaen meetings, by 6, 7, 4 and 7 points (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Apr 2026).
- Over 15 Vaerlose games and 14 Holbaek games, Vaerlose shoot better on twos (54.3% to 52.0%) but Holbaek are better on threes (32.8% to 30.3%), free throws (69.5% to 67.8%) and rebounds (34.5 to 31.8 per game).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonHolbaek-Stenhus under 21.5Estimated chance55.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 05:47

Selected line

171.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

50%

Chance of 172+ points

6 pp below break-even

Over 1.78 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 50%.

Move the line main 171.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W83–89

Holbaek-Stenhusv

Vaerlose

Apr 23, 2026·BAS

W87–80

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Mar 28, 2026·BAS

W87–83

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Oct 29, 2025·BAS

W81–88

Holbaek-Stenhusv

Vaerlose

Sep 23, 2025·BAS

W100–98

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Mar 31, 2025·BASOT

L98–77

Holbaek-Stenhusv

Vaerlose

Mar 3, 2025·BAS

L104–82

Holbaek-Stenhusv

Vaerlose

Feb 13, 2025·BAS

L88–90

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Dec 7, 2024·BAS

W100–86

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Nov 17, 2024·DEN

W99–80

Vaerlosev

Holbaek-Stenhus

Feb 15, 2024·BAS

178Avg total points

10.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Canal Digital Ligaen · Basketligaen - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Vaerlose

1–517%

Holbaek-Stenhus

2–433%

Recent Form

Vaerlose

6W 9L · last 15

vs Bakken Bears82–123 Oct 18BAS

at Vejen80–92 Oct 8BAS

at Horsens79–99 Oct 2BAS

vs Randers85–89 OTSep 27BAS

at Copenhagen74–88 Sep 22BAS

at Gladsaxe88–78 Sep 19BAS

vs Bears Academy70–91 Apr 28BAS

at Holbaek-Stenhus89–83 Apr 23BAS

vs BMS Herlev74–97 Apr 19BAS

vs Amager96–90 Apr 12BAS

at Vejen83–86 Apr 8BAS

at Bears Academy61–75 Mar 31BAS

vs Holbaek-Stenhus87–80 Mar 28BAS

vs Bears Academy85–80 Mar 21BAS

at Amager109–107 OTMar 14BAS

Holbaek-Stenhus

5W 10L · last 15

at Horsens83–97 Oct 15BAS

vs Bears Academy88–67 Oct 10BAS

vs BMS Herlev80–77 Oct 1BAS

at Svendborg75–86 Sep 26BAS

at Team FOG Naestved56–117 Sep 24BAS

vs Randers84–100 Sep 17BAS

vs Vaerlose83–89 Apr 23BAS

at Vejen103–83 Apr 17BAS

vs Bears Academy85–101 Apr 12BAS

at Amager86–98 Apr 8BAS

at BMS Herlev80–65 Apr 1BAS

at Vaerlose80–87 Mar 28BAS

vs Vejen90–93 Mar 21BAS

at Bears Academy84–80 Mar 14BAS

vs Amager75–83 Mar 11BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Vaerlose

Stats

1–4

Holbaek-Stenhus

14 games

Holbaek-Stenhus leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.3pp

54.3%

+2.3pp

52.0%

3-point %+2.5pp

30.3%

+2.5pp

32.8%

Free-throw %+1.7pp

67.8%

+1.7pp

69.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.0pp apart

28.6%

2.0pp apart

30.6%

Free throws per shot8.3pp apart

36.8%

8.3pp apart

28.5%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+2.7

31.8

+2.7

34.5

Turnovers per game1.0 fewer

17.6

1.0 fewer

16.6

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.