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Predictions graded

South East Melbourne108Adelaide94

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–665%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: South East Melbourne and Adelaide.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
South East Melbourne	42	30	14	22
Adelaide	25	18	29	22

Quick Take

Pre-match view

South East Melbourne sit below Adelaide in the standings, yet the Phoenix have the stronger scoring numbers and home court.

Expect a home win in the mid-90s to low-90s, something near 96-92. Of the prices quoted, South East Melbourne -1.5 at 1.93 and South East Melbourne over 94.5 points at 1.85 are the two that offer something; Adelaide +1.5 at 1.89 and Adelaide over 93.5 points at 1.85 do not.

Context

Krebs' return restores a regular Phoenix rotation player, while Humphries' retirement removes an Adelaide centre for the season. Mathiang could add cover but is unconfirmed, so the sporting effect on this fixture is modest rather than decisive.

Krebs was unavailable for the Cairns game after suffering the neck injury, but South East Melbourne confirmed his return for Adelaide's visit. His inclusion removes a recent absence from the Phoenix squad for this fixture.
- Krebs missed South East Melbourne's game against Cairns because of a neck injury.
- He was named to return to the line-up against Adelaide on 23 October.
Goodrick's knee rehabilitation continues into this round, so he remains unavailable against Adelaide. Pat Ryan has been brought into the Phoenix squad in his place, creating a direct matchday squad change.
- Goodrick remains sidelined while rehabilitating a knee injury.
- Pat Ryan replaces Goodrick in South East Melbourne's squad for Adelaide.
Humphries had been unavailable during the opening rounds before ending his playing career on 20 October. Adelaide are without the centre for the remainder of the season, making their current frontcourt options and new signing more relevant for this matchup.
- Humphries announced his retirement on 20 October after his knee condition worsened.
- Adelaide had already ruled Humphries out while he continued knee rehabilitation.
Mathiang joined Adelaide after Humphries' season-ending retirement and had less than a week with the group before this fixture. The centre could provide another frontcourt option, but his debut remains uncertain until Adelaide confirms its final selection.
- Adelaide signed Mathiang for the remainder of the season on 21 October.
- Mathiang arrived in Adelaide on 18 October and trained with the team from the following day.
- He said he was ready for the South East Melbourne trip, with the final call left to Trevor Gleeson.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

South East Melbourne -1.5

1.93fair 1.60

Market 51.8% · BetBugs 62.3%

+10.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this. South East Melbourne's current scoring rate and home court give it the stronger offensive baseline, while Adelaide's away scoring keeps the visitors in the low 90s. A mid-90s home score against a low-90s away score fits the current samples.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

South East Melbourne over 94.5

1.85fair 1.68

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 59.7%

+5.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne score more than 94.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. South East Melbourne's current scoring rate and home court give it the stronger offensive baseline, while Adelaide's away scoring keeps the visitors in the low 90s. A mid-90s home score against a low-90s away score fits the current samples.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne cover +3.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostSouth East Melbourne +3.5Estimated chance73.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne win in about 64 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance64.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.93
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne -1.5Estimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne cover -0.5 in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne -0.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. Adelaide cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostAdelaide +2.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance55.3%

Points5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 80 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 40.5Estimated chance79.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. Adelaide score more than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostAdelaide over 19.5Estimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 49.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 49.5Estimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne score more than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne over 22.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne score more than 94.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · Team PointswonSouth East Melbourne over 94.5Estimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. Adelaide score fewer than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonAdelaide under 47.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 25.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 25.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. Adelaide score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostAdelaide under 23.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 96.5, Adelaide 91.8. South East Melbourne score more than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- South East Melbourne has averaged 96.5 points scored and 93.9 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27, with home splits of 97.0 scored and 92.3 conceded in four games.
- Adelaide has averaged 88.8 points scored and 90.8 conceded through eight NBL games in 2026-27; its five away games produced 92.8 scored and 94.6 conceded.
- Across 15 box scores, South East Melbourne shoots 55.6% on two-pointers, 30.8% on three-pointers, averages 35.9 rebounds and 9.9 turnovers; Adelaide shoots 55.2% and 33.3% with 33.5 rebounds and 11.1 turnovers.
- The last seven completed NBL meetings averaged 186.1 total points; the most recent was Adelaide 108-96 over South East Melbourne on 17 March 2026.
- South East Melbourne has had seven days' rest and Adelaide eight; Tanner Krebs is confirmed back for South East Melbourne, while Adelaide are without Isaac Humphries after his retirement.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSouth East Melbourne over 47.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 19:41

Selected line

188.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

51%

Chance of 189+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 51%.

Move the line main 188.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L108–96

Adelaidev

South East Melbourne

Mar 17, 2026·NBL

W101–92

South East Melbournev

Adelaide

Mar 14, 2026·NBL

L104–97

Adelaidev

South East Melbourne

Mar 10, 2026·NBL

W77–97

Adelaidev

South East Melbourne

Jan 31, 2026·NBL

W89–108

Adelaidev

South East Melbourne

Jan 18, 2026·NBL

L81–94

South East Melbournev

Adelaide

Nov 22, 2025·NBL

L88–71

Adelaidev

South East Melbourne

Oct 16, 2025·NBL

W85–75

South East Melbournev

Adelaide

Feb 16, 2025·NBL

W105–99

South East Melbournev

Adelaide

Feb 2, 2025·NBL

W106–86

South East Melbournev

Adelaide

Dec 21, 2024·NBL

185.9Avg total points

13.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

South East Melbourne

3–538%

Adelaide

4–450%

Recent Form

South East Melbourne

6W 9L · last 15

vs Cairns Taipans115–83 Oct 17NBL

at Brisbane Bullets105–115 Oct 15NBL

vs Melbourne United99–104 Oct 10NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks113–96 Oct 4NBL

at Perth88–92 Oct 2NBL

vs Melbourne United61–86 Sep 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers91–96 Sep 21NBL

at Perth100–79 Sep 19NBL

at Adelaide96–108 Mar 17NBL

vs Adelaide101–92 Mar 14NBL

at Adelaide97–104 Mar 10NBL

vs Perth111–94 Mar 4NBL

at Melbourne United91–95 Feb 19NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers120–104 Feb 14NBL

vs Sydney88–114 Feb 8NBL

Adelaide

7W 8L · last 15

at Tasmania JackJumpers94–88 Oct 16NBL

at Sydney84–78 Oct 11NBL

vs Melbourne United91–96 Oct 7NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers72–88 Oct 4NBL

at Illawarra Hawks92–114 Oct 2NBL

vs Cairns Taipans83–69 Sep 27NBL

at Perth97–98 Sep 24NBL

at Melbourne United97–95 Sep 19NBL

at Sydney101–113 OTApr 5NBL

vs Sydney92–91 Apr 1NBL

at Sydney93–106 Mar 29NBL

vs Sydney91–89 Mar 27NBL

at Sydney68–112 Mar 21NBL

vs South East Melbourne108–96 Mar 17NBL

at South East Melbourne92–101 Mar 14NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

South East Melbourne

Stats

4–1

Adelaide

South East Melbourne leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.4pp

55.6%

+0.4pp

55.2%

3-point %+2.5pp

30.8%

+2.5pp

33.3%

Free-throw %+3.9pp

78.6%

+3.9pp

74.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.1pp apart

35.6%

0.1pp apart

35.7%

Free throws per shot3.9pp apart

25.7%

3.9pp apart

29.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+2.4

35.9

+2.4

33.5

Turnovers per game1.2 fewer

9.9

1.2 fewer

11.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.