Basket LeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

PAOK65AEK Athens62

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Points by period: PAOK and AEK Athens.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
PAOK	20	5	22	18
AEK Athens	15	14	15	18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

PAOK put a 3-0 league start on the line in the Thessaloniki derby against an AEK side whose backcourt is unsettled, with Bartley pushing to return from knee trouble and Heurtel doubtful.

The likely outcome is a PAOK win, something near 86-77 after 40 minutes, built on home wins over Ulm, Lefkadas and Manresa. At 1.19 to win and 1.2 to lead after 40 minutes, no quoted price stands out at our numbers.

Context

AEK's availability is the live sporting question: Bartley has missed two games with knee tendinitis and is pushing to play, while Heurtel was out of the twelve against Antwerp with a reported thigh tear. PAOK's three home wins this season, including 87-78 over Ulm on 21 October, give the game a clear home baseline.

Bartley is AEK's American guard and was the Basketball Champions League's best player last season. He scored 27 points in the opener against Salon Vilpas on 7 October, including 10 in the last five minutes and the three-pointer that tied the game before Thomas Heurtel's winner. He was reported out of action on 15 October and tendinitis in the knee was reported four days later, keeping him out of the win over Mykonos and the heavy home defeat by Antwerp. A report on 23 October said he wants to play at PAOK, which would restore the guard who carried AEK's scoring in Europe. AEK have not confirmed his availability, so a decision may only follow a final fitness check.
- Tendinitis in Frank Bartley's knee was reported on 19 October, four days after he was reported out of action.
- He did not play in AEK's 84-79 league win over Mykonos on 17 October or in the 103-76 Champions League defeat by Antwerp on 21 October.
- A report on 23 October said the guard wants to play against PAOK.
AEK's French point guard hit the winning basket against Salon Vilpas and was again central to the attack in the league win over Mykonos on 17 October. A thigh tear was reported on 19 October and he was left out of the twelve for the Antwerp game two days later. Without him the ball-handling falls to Dimitris Flionis, Lukas Lekavicius and Giannoulis Larentzakis, and AEK lose their most experienced creator for a derby against a PAOK backcourt built around Nick Calathes and Trevor Hudgins. No return date has been given, so his involvement at PAOK is doubtful and the club has not set out when he will be cleared.
- A thigh tear was reported for Thomas Heurtel on 19 October.
- He was absent from AEK's twelve for the Champions League game against Antwerp on 21 October.
- Heurtel hit the winning basket in AEK's 95-93 Champions League win over Salon Vilpas on 7 October.
Greek basketball has spent the week consumed by a match-fixing case. Tsaroucha was arrested on 21 October as part of that case, the night PAOK hosted Ulm in the EuroCup and AEK hosted Antwerp in the Champions League, and both arenas answered with loud protests about the investigation. Reporting the following day said the federation's refereeing committee had appointed her to this derby, which would force a late change to the officiating crew. The case file also covers earlier Promitheas games involving PAOK, Aris and AEK. Neither roster is affected, but the refereeing of the game will be scrutinised closely and the mood in the building may be tense.
- Referee Vasso Tsaroucha was arrested on 21 October in the investigation into fixed games in Greek basketball.
- Supporters at PAOK's and AEK's European home games that night protested loudly about the case.
- Reporting the next day said the Greek refereeing committee had assigned her to the PAOK-AEK fixture this weekend.
- The case file examines earlier Promitheas games against PAOK, Aris and AEK.
AEK were beaten 103-76 at home by Antwerp in the Champions League on 21 October, and their coach apologised to the club's supporters afterwards. Sakota called the display shameful and said the Belgian side had controlled the game for 40 minutes before exploiting the fatigue his players were carrying. The defeat came three days before the league game at PAOK and followed a home league win over Mykonos, so AEK arrive with a coach demanding a response and a rotation already missing two guards. Whether the Antwerp night was an outlier or a sign of deeper trouble is the open question.
- Antwerp won 103-76 in Athens on 21 October.
- Dragan Sakota apologised to AEK's supporters and called the performance shameful.
- Sakota said the Belgian side had exploited the fatigue his team was carrying.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK win in about 77 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPAOKEstimated chance77.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 76 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonPAOKEstimated chance75.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for PAOK and 15 for AEK Athens, across seasons and competitions.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostPAOK +1.5Estimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostPAOKEstimated chance68.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostPAOKEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for PAOK and 15 for AEK Athens, across seasons and competitions.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonPAOK -0.5Estimated chance58.4%

Points1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. PAOK score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonPAOK under 22.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 86.7, AEK Athens 77.2. AEK Athens score more than 37.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Basket League through 17 October, scoring 87.3 and conceding 80.7 per game (88-84 at Kolossos, 86-73 vs Lefkadas, 88-85 at Mykonos).
- PAOK's home games this season: 87 vs Ulm (EuroCup, 21 Oct), 86 vs Lefkadas (10 Oct) and 93 vs Manresa (EuroCup, 30 Sep), all wins.
- AEK's three Basket League games (through 17 Oct) produced 77.7 points scored and 79.0 conceded, including a 58-88 loss at Aris on 10 October.
- Across the full 15-game window AEK scored 81.2 and conceded 86.2; PAOK scored 88.1 and conceded 85.9, with PAOK's figures boosted by EuroCup and weaker domestic opponents.
- Head-to-head last season: AEK won 88-71 in Thessaloniki on 14 February 2026, while PAOK won 78-76 in Athens on 9 November 2025.
- AEK guard Bartley (knee tendinitis) missed games on 17 and 21 October and was only reported as pushing to play on 23 October; Heurtel (thigh tear, reported 19 Oct) was out of the twelve against Antwerp on 21 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostAEK Athens over 37.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 07:56

Selected line

164.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

50%

Chance of 165+ points

2 pp below break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 50%.

Move the line main 164.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L71–88

PAOKv

AEK Athens

Feb 14, 2026·BAS

W76–78

AEK Athensv PAOK

PAOK

Nov 9, 2025·BAS

L89–85

AEK Athensv PAOK

PAOK

Apr 27, 2025·BASOT

W94–69

PAOKv

AEK Athens

Apr 12, 2025·BAS

L89–76

AEK Athensv PAOK

PAOK

Apr 5, 2025·BAS

W84–65

PAOKv

AEK Athens

Feb 13, 2025·GRE

L91–68

AEK Athensv PAOK

PAOK

Jan 19, 2025·BAS

W87–82

PAOKv

AEK Athens

Oct 26, 2024·BAS

L99–91

AEK Athensv PAOK

PAOK

Apr 21, 2024·BAS

L85–94

PAOKv

AEK Athens

Mar 2, 2024·BAS

166.1Avg total points

12.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Basket League · Basket League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

PAOK

3–0100%

AEK Athens

2–167%

Recent Form

PAOK

10W 5L · last 15

vs Ulm87–78 Oct 21EUR

at Kolossos Rhodes88–84 Oct 17BAS

at Lietkabelis86–95 Oct 13EUR

vs Lefkadas86–73 Oct 10BAS

at KK Bosna75–72 Oct 6EUR

at Mykonos88–85 Oct 3BAS

vs Manresa93–78 Sep 30EUR

at Olympiacos96–101 Sep 27SUP

at Panathinaikos84–82 Sep 26SUP

vs Panathinaikos94–102 May 30BAS

at Panathinaikos102–114 OTMay 28BAS

at Peristeri77–72 May 6BAS

vs Peristeri91–79 May 3BAS

at Bilbao74–89 Apr 29FIB

vs Maroussi101–85 Apr 25BAS

AEK Athens

7W 8L · last 15

vs Antwerp Giants76–103 Oct 21CL

vs Mykonos84–79 Oct 17BAS

at Aris58–88 Oct 10BAS

vs Salon Vilpas95–93 Oct 7CL

vs Maroussi91–70 Oct 3BAS

at Olympiacos80–93 Sep 26SUP

vs Olympiacos68–95 May 30BAS

at Olympiacos77–94 May 28BAS

vs Aris102–99 May 25BAS

at Aris81–90 May 17BAS

vs Aris87–81 May 14BAS

vs Rytas86–92 OTMay 9CL

at Unicaja78–65 May 7CL

vs Olympiacos84–94 Apr 25BAS

at Panionios71–57 Apr 19BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

PAOK

Stats

4–1

AEK Athens

PAOK leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+5.9pp

60.2%

+5.9pp

54.3%

3-point %+1.8pp

33.7%

+1.8pp

35.5%

Free-throw %12/15 games+4.5pp

77.2%

+4.5pp

72.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.4pp apart

32.8%

3.4pp apart

29.4%

Free throws per shot12/15 games4.6pp apart

35.0%

4.6pp apart

39.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+2.2

31.1

+2.2

28.9

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

12.3

0.9 fewer

13.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.