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Predictions graded

Oliveirense104Esgueira80

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions15–671%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Oliveirense and Esgueira.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Oliveirense	23	32	24	25
Esgueira	24	8	20	28

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Oliveirense have won the recent meetings on their own floor by margins in the teens, and a full-game read lands near 89-77.

Esgueira's 91-point home night against Porto is the counterweight, which is why the 15.5-point start at 1.82 is the one price that looks generous; the 1.03 win price does not.

Context

Regular-season LPB fixture with no confirmed availability news. Interest comes from the form contrast — Oliveirense 1-1, Esgueira 0-3 — and the size of the recent head-to-head margins at Oliveirense.

Esgueira took an early lead against one of the strongest sides in the league and were still within three points at the break, but they conceded 95 across the night and could not close it out. Bailey's 34-point performance was the outstanding individual output of the game and shows how much of their scoring can come from one source when the game opens up. Oliveirense now face a team that has just pushed Porto to the final possession at home, and limiting that individual scoring threat is the central defensive question for the visitors' hosts.
- FC Porto won 95-91 away to Esgueira on 16 October.
- Justin Bailey scored 34 points for Esgueira in that game.
- Esgueira led 27-25 after the first quarter and trailed 46-49 at half-time.
Oliveirense, coached by the Uruguayan Pablo Cano, began the campaign with a nine-point road win at Portimonense and then scored only 67 in a 25-point defeat in Lisbon, with Benfica's Brandon Slater and Aleksander Dziewa each finishing on 17. The swing between those two performances is the clearest question around the team's consistency heading into a home game against an opponent that has just scored 91 in a losing cause. Whether Cano's side can get back to the scoring level of their opener at home is the practical uncertainty.
- Oliveirense won 91-82 away to Portimonense in their league opener on 3 October.
- Benfica beat Oliveirense 92-67 on 17 October.
- Brandon Slater and Aleksander Dziewa each scored 17 points for Benfica in that game.
Oliveirense brought Aramburu in at the end of September on a two-month arrangement rather than a full-season contract, after he finished a spell in Italy, and the move put him back alongside Pablo Cano, the Uruguayan who runs the team. The short length means his presence is only covered through the opening weeks of the campaign, and whether the deal is extended beyond those two months is unclear. For this fixture the story is squad depth rather than availability, since nothing indicates he will be missing.
- Jon Ander Aramburu signed a two-month contract with Oliveirense at the end of September.
- He arrived after ending his spell in Italian basketball.
- Aramburu previously worked with Oliveirense coach Pablo Cano.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Esgueira +15.5

1.82fair 1.67

Market 54.9% · BetBugs 59.8%

+4.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira cover +15.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Oliveirense should score near 90 because Esgueira have conceded 89.0 per game this season and 93.4 over the last 15, while the home head-to-heads have repeatedly been high-scoring. Esgueira's 91-point game against Porto shows they can reach the high 70s even on a poor run, but their away loss at Sporting keeps the away score below 80.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense win in about 83 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOliveirenseEstimated chance83.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 82 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonOliveirenseEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira cover +13.5 in the 1st half in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostEsgueira +13.5Estimated chance75.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonOliveirenseEstimated chance74.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira cover +6.5 in the 1st quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonEsgueira +6.5Estimated chance69.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonOliveirenseEstimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonOliveirense -0.5Estimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostOliveirenseEstimated chance63.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonOliveirenseEstimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonOliveirense -0.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.82
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira cover +15.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · HandicaplostEsgueira +15.5Estimated chance59.8%

Points7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense score fewer than 50.5 points in the 1st half in about 78 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostOliveirense under 50.5Estimated chance78.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonOliveirense over 18.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira score fewer than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira under 20.5Estimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Oliveirense score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonOliveirense over 21.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira score more than 74.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · Team PointswonEsgueira over 74.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 42.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 42.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira score fewer than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonEsgueira under 39.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. The 2nd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 40.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira score more than 18.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira over 18.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Oliveirense 89.0, Esgueira 76.7. Esgueira score fewer than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Oliveirense and 15 for Esgueira, across seasons and competitions.
- Oliveirense are 1-1 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 79.0 and allowing 87.0; they beat Portimonense 91-82 on 3 October and lost 67-92 at Benfica on 17 October.
- Esgueira are 0-3 in LPB 2026-27, scoring 71.7 and allowing 89.0, with a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 91-95 home loss to FC Porto on 16 October.
- In their last 15 completed games across competitions, Esgueira allowed 93.4 points per game while Oliveirense averaged 35.2 rebounds to Esgueira's 30.7.
- At Oliveirense, recent head-to-head games were 92-69 on 25 March 2026 (Taca da Liga), 100-77 on 15 November 2025, 93-77 on 16 November 2024 and 91-73 on 20 January 2024 (LPB).
- Oliveirense shot 52.4% on two-pointers over their last 15 box scores, compared with Esgueira's 48.2%; Esgueira shot 33.9% on three-pointers compared with Oliveirense's 29.9%.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira under 19.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 06:34

Selected line

165.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 166+ points

5 pp below break-even

Over 1.75 needs 57% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 165.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W92–69

Oliveirensev

Esgueira

Mar 25, 2026·TAC

L93–88

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Mar 21, 2026·LPB

W100–77

Oliveirensev

Esgueira

Nov 15, 2025·LPB

L78–66

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Mar 15, 2025·LPB

W88–96

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Dec 17, 2024·TACOT

W93–77

Oliveirensev

Esgueira

Nov 16, 2024·LPB

W69–78

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Jan 27, 2024·TAC

W91–73

Oliveirensev

Esgueira

Jan 20, 2024·LPB

W62–74

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Sep 30, 2023·LPB

L77–73

Esgueirav

Oliveirense

Dec 17, 2022·LPB

161.4Avg total points

13Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LPB · LPB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Oliveirense

1–150%

Esgueira

0–30%

Recent Form

Oliveirense

7W 8L · last 15

at Benfica67–92 Oct 17LPB

at Portimonense91–82 Oct 3LPB

vs Benfica78–86 May 28LPB

at Benfica61–86 May 23LPB

at Benfica76–98 May 21LPB

at Ovarense69–65 May 16LPB

vs Ovarense90–72 May 13LPB

at Ovarense79–93 May 9LPB

at Benfica76–104 May 2TAC

at FC Porto89–86 Apr 30TAC

at Vitoria74–84 Apr 25LPB

vs Imortal78–73 Apr 18LPB

at Sporting CP82–74 Apr 11LPB

at CA Queluz84–91 Apr 4LPB

vs Vasco Da Gama109–89 Mar 28LPB

Esgueira

3W 12L · last 15

vs FC Porto91–95 Oct 16LPB

at Sporting CP60–88 Oct 10LPB

vs CD Povoa64–84 Oct 3LPB

vs Sporting CP73–85 May 14LPB

at Sporting CP67–109 May 10LPB

at FC Porto86–85 Apr 25LPB

vs Benfica65–107 Apr 18LPB

at Vitoria87–93 Apr 11LPB

vs Imortal97–83 OTApr 4LPB

at Sporting CP79–95 Mar 28LPB

at Oliveirense69–92 Mar 25TAC

vs Oliveirense93–88 Mar 21LPB

at Vasco Da Gama84–98 Mar 14LPB

vs Benfica75–102 Mar 8TAC

vs Braga76–97 Feb 21LPB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Oliveirense

Stats

4–1

Esgueira

Oliveirense leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.2pp

52.4%

+4.2pp

48.2%

3-point %+4.0pp

29.9%

+4.0pp

33.9%

Free-throw %+2.7pp

70.4%

+2.7pp

67.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s11.2pp apart

29.6%

11.2pp apart

40.8%

Free throws per shot7.3pp apart

34.3%

7.3pp apart

27.0%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+4.5

35.2

+4.5

30.7

Turnovers per game0.1 fewer

16.2

0.1 fewer

16.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.