Liga ACBFinished

Predictions graded

Manresa81San Pablo Burgos99

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–665%

Points by period: Manresa and San Pablo Burgos.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Manresa	20	17	26	18
San Pablo Burgos	34	18	29	18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and still chasing a first league win, while Burgos arrive on a five-game losing run.

The game after 40 minutes projects to Manresa 86.3, Burgos 87.8, so Burgos are the slightly more likely winner by under two points. Manresa's Timmy Allen is out for weeks, which sharpens the home side's scoring problem. No price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Timmy Allen's confirmed adductor injury removes Manresa's leading scorer for weeks, and Burgos' five-game losing run leaves both sides under pressure. The third game in eight days for each squad is supported; no rest or fatigue effect is established.

Allen has been Manresa's main scoring reference and his absence removes the interior option Diego Ocampo builds around. He sat out the home defeat to Unicaja on 17 October and the EuroCup win over Roma on 20 October, while Ocampo's 21 October comment that he needs a few weeks points to a longer absence rather than a weekend return. Pierre Oriola takes on more of the inside load, with Hugo Benitez and JD Notae creating shots. Manresa have published no return date, so his comeback against Burgos is not established.
- Manresa diagnosed a right adductor injury in Timmy Allen on 17 October and gave no return date.
- Diego Ocampo said on 21 October that Allen is improving but needs a few weeks and must come back at 100%.
- Allen missed the 72-84 home defeat to Unicaja on 17 October and the EuroCup win over Roma on 20 October.
Villar is a guard in Manresa's senior rotation and the wrist problem leaves Ocampo with fewer ball-handling options. The injury was confirmed on 17 October with the club saying only that his evolution would determine the return, and he then missed both the Unicaja game and the Roma fixture, with Lukasz Kolenda coming back into the squad for the latter. Ferran Bassas and Hugo Benitez carry more of the playmaking load. Without a timetable, the game against Burgos is a doubtful one for Villar.
- Manresa confirmed a hairline fracture in Rafa Villar's right wrist on 17 October.
- Villar missed the Unicaja game on 17 October and the Roma game on 20 October.
Manresa have lost all four league games, and the EuroCup win over Roma on 20 October, achieved without Timmy Allen and Rafa Villar, is their only recent success. Saturday brings a first meeting with another side struggling at the bottom rather than a title contender, so the fixture carries early-season relegation weight and pressure to convert home advantage. Ocampo has asked his players for discipline and fight while the injured pair recover, and the Nou Congost crowd is still waiting for a first league win of the season.
- Unicaja won 84-72 at the Nou Congost on 17 October, leaving Manresa 0-4 in the ACB.
- Manresa beat Roma in the EuroCup on 20 October without Timmy Allen and Rafa Villar.
- Pierre Oriola scored 17 points in the defeat to Unicaja.
Burgos opened with a 97-98 home loss to Baskonia, won at Lleida, then lost at home to Obradoiro on 17 October and in Italy on 21 October. The Derthona defeat followed a familiar pattern: Burgos started well and then conceded 31 points in the final quarter. Porfi Fisac's rotation has been stretched by absences in the backcourt and frontcourt, and five straight defeats leave little margin. Saturday is a direct opportunity against another side without a league win.
- Derthona Tortona beat Burgos 89-79 on 21 October, a fifth straight defeat.
- Burgos conceded the last quarter 31-17 in Italy after a strong start.
- Obradoiro won 79-72 in Burgos on 17 October, with DJ Steward scoring 21 for the home side.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos cover +3.5 (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +3.5Estimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Manresa and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostManresa +2.5Estimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +1.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Manresa and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +0.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos win in about 55 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSan Pablo BurgosEstimated chance54.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 52 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonSan Pablo BurgosEstimated chance52.4%

Points6 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa score fewer than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · Team PointswonManresa under 93.5Estimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 47.5Estimated chance72.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. The game has fewer than 184.5 points (overtime included) in about 71 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 184.5Estimated chance71.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostManresa under 23.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos under 23.5Estimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa score fewer than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonManresa under 45.5Estimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. The 1st half has fewer than 90.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 90.5Estimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. San Pablo Burgos score fewer than 90.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos under 90.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonManresa under 22.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. Manresa score fewer than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonManresa under 22.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 87.8. The 1st quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa are 0-4 in the ACB and have conceded 103.0 points per game in those four league games, including 101 at home to Breogan on 3 October.
- Burgos average 90.5 points in their two ACB away games (94 at Lleida on 4 October, 87 at Bilbao on 11 October) and allow 88.5 points per game in the league.
- Manresa's leading scorer Timmy Allen (21.4 points per game in five games) is confirmed out for weeks with an adductor injury and missed the games on 17 and 20 October.
- Burgos have lost five straight, averaging 80.4 points in that run, including 79-89 at Tortona on 21 October.
- Burgos won the last meeting 101-94 at Manresa on 26 April 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 44.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 06:34

Selected line

184.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

29%

Chance of 185+ points

23 pp below break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 29%.

Move the line main 184.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 29%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 71%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L94–101

Manresav

San Pablo Burgos

Apr 26, 2026·ACB

W100–102

San Pablo Burgosv Manresa

Manresa

Dec 20, 2025·ACBOT

W93–68

Manresav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 30, 2022·ACB

W82–90

San Pablo Burgosv Manresa

Manresa

Nov 6, 2021·ACB

L87–101

Manresav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 31, 2021·ACB

L91–80

San Pablo Burgosv Manresa

Manresa

Dec 19, 2020·ACB

L83–86

Manresav

San Pablo Burgos

Mar 23, 2019·ACB

W74–82

San Pablo Burgosv Manresa

Manresa

Nov 17, 2018·ACB

176.8Avg total points

9.8Avg margin

8meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Manresa

0–40%

San Pablo Burgos

1–325%

Recent Form

Manresa

7W 8L · last 15

vs BC Roma108–88 Oct 20EUR

vs Unicaja72–84 Oct 17ACB

at Bahcesehir Kol.88–100 Oct 13EUR

at Real Madrid83–120 Oct 11ACB

vs Ulm101–89 Oct 7EUR

vs Breogan95–101 Oct 3ACB

at PAOK78–93 Sep 30EUR

at Bilbao92–107 Sep 26ACB

vs Real Madrid94–87 May 29ACB

at Gran Canaria87–80 May 23ACB

vs Basket Zaragoza101–83 May 16ACB

at Basquet Girona79–74 May 12ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra94–104 May 10ACB

vs Valencia104–102 May 3ACB

vs San Pablo Burgos94–101 Apr 26ACB

San Pablo Burgos

7W 8L · last 15

at Tortona79–89 Oct 21EUR

vs Obradoiro CAB72–79 Oct 17ACB

vs Hapoel Jerusalem84–85 Oct 14EUR

at Bilbao87–96 Oct 11ACB

at Aris80–93 Oct 7EUR

at Forca Lleida94–81 Oct 4ACB

vs Cedevita Olimpija85–81 Sep 30EUR

vs Baskonia97–98 Sep 27ACB

vs Granada110–105 May 29ACB

at Joventut Badalona79–86 May 24ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra85–83 May 17ACB

vs Unicaja97–90 May 14ACB

at Barcelona76–91 May 9ACB

vs Forca Lleida99–91 May 2ACB

at Manresa101–94 Apr 26ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Manresa

Stats

1–4

San Pablo Burgos

San Pablo Burgos leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+3.8pp

57.8%

+3.8pp

54.0%

3-point %+3.6pp

31.5%

+3.6pp

35.1%

Free-throw %11/11 games+8.2pp

69.8%

+8.2pp

78.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.3pp apart

29.8%

1.3pp apart

28.5%

Free throws per shot11/11 games10.9pp apart

39.8%

10.9pp apart

28.9%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+0.4

32.7

+0.4

33.1

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

14.6

0.5 fewer

14.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.