ProligaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Maia82Lusitania77

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–858%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Maia and Lusitania.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Maia	28	8	25	21
Lusitania	18	26	15	18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Unbeaten Lusitania bring a 3-0 Proliga start to Maia, who have already scored 105 at home this season.

The 40-minute score reads Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4: Lusitania are the likely winners, ahead after 40 minutes in about 61 of 100 games and including overtime in about 63. At 1.80, Lusitania -1.5 offers potential value; Maia +1.5 at 1.78 does not.

Context

Lusitania's 3-0 start and 56.2% two-point shooting over their last 15 completed games are the strongest current conditions, while Maia's 40.7 rebounds per game and 105-point home game keep the matchup live. Both teams last played on 17 October, and the 2026-27 season is only three games old for Lusitania and two for Maia.

Cameron is the Maia player the league singled out for the opening round of the Proliga season, after a valuation of 43.5 in a win. That makes him the clearest established individual reference point in Maia's early-season attack going into the home game against Lusitânia, and a player the away defence has to account for. The recognition is an award for one round rather than proof of a fixed role or guaranteed output in this fixture, and Maia have played further rounds since.
- Mekhi Cameron recorded a valuation of 43.5 in Maia's opening-round Proliga victory.
- He was named the competition's first-round MVP on 8 October 2026.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Lusitania -1.5

1.80fair 1.64

Market 55.6% · BetBugs 61.1%

+5.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Lusitania's unbeaten start and more efficient two-point shooting give them a small advantage, but Maia's home scoring and the close recent head-to-heads point to a single-digit game. I expect a total in the high 150s with Lusitania just ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Maia cover +6.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 78 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonMaia +6.5Estimated chance77.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania win in about 63 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLusitaniaEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostLusitaniaEstimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · HandicaplostLusitania -1.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonLusitania +0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonLusitaniaEstimated chance57.7%

Points8 of 13 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonLusitania over 17.5Estimated chance74.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania score more than 77.5 points (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · Team PointslostLusitania over 77.5Estimated chance69.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. The game has more than 154.5 points (overtime included) in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 154.5Estimated chance65.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania score more than 38.5 points in the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonLusitania over 38.5Estimated chance65.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. The 2nd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 37.5Estimated chance65.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. The 1st half has more than 76.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 76.5Estimated chance64.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. The 3rd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 37.5Estimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. The 1st quarter has more than 38.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 38.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostLusitania over 19.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Maia score more than 37.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostMaia over 37.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Maia score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonMaia under 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Maia score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonMaia over 18.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maia 78.1, Lusitania 82.4. Lusitania score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maia and 15 for Lusitania, across seasons and competitions.
- Lusitania are 3-0 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 79.3 points scored and 66.3 conceded (as of 23 Oct 2026).
- Maia are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Proliga, averaging 82.0 scored and 84.0 conceded; they beat Ginasio Olhanense 105-96 at home on 3 Oct and lost 59-72 at Santo Andre on 17 Oct.
- Over the last 15 accepted box scores, Lusitania shoot 56.2% on two-pointers with 14.7 turnovers per game, while Maia shoot 45.8% on two-pointers with 16.5 turnovers per game.
- Maia average 40.7 rebounds per game to Lusitania's 38.4 across the same 15-game box-score samples.
- The last four Proliga head-to-heads are split 2-2; Maia's home wins were 85-81 in Dec 2025 and 93-86 in Mar 2025, and the four games averaged 157.5 total points.
- Both teams last played on 17 Oct 2026 and had roughly seven days of rest before this game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostLusitania over 19.5Estimated chance56.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 07:56

Selected line

154.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

66%

Chance of 155+ points

+11 pp above break-even

Over 1.83 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 66%.

Move the line main 154.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 66%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 34%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W85–81

Maiav

Lusitania

Dec 27, 2025·PRO

L69–65

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Oct 31, 2025·PRO

W93–86

Maiav

Lusitania

Mar 16, 2025·PRO

L82–69

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Jan 25, 2025·PRO

W76–82

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Dec 9, 2023·TAC

L93–67

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Apr 3, 2021·LPB

L65–76

Maiav

Lusitania

Jan 3, 2021·LPB

W87–90

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Dec 7, 2019·LPB

L87–85

Lusitaniav Maia

Maia

Apr 22, 2017·LPB

W88–77

Maiav

Lusitania

Mar 18, 2017·LPB

160.3Avg total points

8.7Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Proliga · Proliga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Maia

1–150%

Lusitania

3–0100%

Recent Form

Maia

10W 5L · last 15

at Santo Andre59–72 Oct 17PRO

vs Ginasio Olhanense105–96 Oct 3PRO

at Ginasio Olhanense83–73 May 1PRO

vs CD Povoa75–73 Apr 25PRO

vs Portimonense73–63 Apr 18PRO

vs CAB Madeira108–100 OTApr 4PRO

at Ginasio109–81 Mar 29PRO

vs Ginasio87–80 Mar 28PRO

at Illiabum69–72 Mar 21PRO

vs Imortal B84–49 Mar 15PRO

vs Ginasio Olhanense93–69 Mar 7PRO

at CD Povoa76–85 Mar 1PRO

at Portimonense74–78 Feb 21PRO

at CAB Madeira81–75 Feb 14PRO

vs Illiabum75–79 Jan 31PRO

Lusitania

15W 0L · last 15

vs Galomar77–75 Oct 17PRO

at Ginasio Olhanense88–56 Oct 11PRO

vs Barcelos73–68 Oct 5PRO

vs CB Queluz89–68 May 2PRO

at Academica85–79 Apr 26PRO

vs Galomar108–88 Apr 18PRO

at Santo Andre85–70 Apr 3PRO

vs Sampaense87–60 Mar 29PRO

vs Sangalhos89–69 Mar 22PRO

at Sampaense99–71 Mar 15PRO

at Benfica Lisboa B88–86 Mar 14PRO

at CB Queluz83–76 Mar 7PRO

vs Academica91–85 Feb 28PRO

at Galomar85–77 Feb 22PRO

vs Santo Andre76–73 Feb 12PRO

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Maia

Stats

3–2

Lusitania

Maia leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+10.4pp

45.8%

+10.4pp

56.2%

3-point %+2.6pp

34.2%

+2.6pp

31.6%

Free-throw %+2.8pp

72.1%

+2.8pp

69.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.5pp apart

30.3%

7.5pp apart

22.8%

Free throws per shot8.6pp apart

36.0%

8.6pp apart

27.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.3

40.7

+2.3

38.4

Turnovers per game1.8 fewer

16.5

1.8 fewer

14.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.