BNXT LeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Leuven Bears67Leiden64

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Leuven Bears and Leiden.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Leuven Bears	11	14	17	25
Leiden	11	14	22	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two 2-1 teams, a week's rest each and an expected score of about 77-74: Leuven Bears' home form gives them a narrow edge over Leiden.

The prices on Leuven don't justify themselves, with 4.5 points to give at 1.75 and over 78.5 points at 1.77 both too demanding. The one price that makes a case is Leiden to be ahead at half-time at 2.75.

Context

Both teams last played on 17 October, a full week before tip-off, and no availability or rotation news is established. The game rests on three current BNXT results each plus 15-game shooting and rebounding figures stretching across competitions and seasons.

Leuven's early setback came at Donar Groningen on 6 October, when Aleks Merkviladze's buzzer-beater kept the hosts unbeaten. Leuven answered with a home win over Kortrijk Spurs in a game they only separated after the interval. That sequence says Leuven can trade scoring runs with a strong side and then close out a tighter home game, the profile they bring into a meeting with a Leiden team that also won its last game after half-time.
- Leuven Bears hosted Kortrijk Spurs on 17 October and made the difference after the interval.
- On 6 October Donar Groningen beat Leuven with a buzzer-beating shot.
- Aleks Merkviladze hit the winner and Donar stayed unbeaten.
Aalst matched Leiden through the opening quarter and trailed by only a point at the break. A strong third quarter made it 66-57 and the closing period turned that into a 92-77 win. Nik Graves, Jamie Bergens, Kjeld Zuidema, Sam Huurman and Jonathan Beagle started that game and stayed in front through the second half. The shape of the win says Leiden's scoring tends to arrive in bursts rather than from the tip, and both clubs' most recent wins were decided after half-time.
- Leiden beat Okapi Aalst 92-77 at home on 17 October.
- Leiden trailed 26-25 after the opening quarter and led 42-41 at half-time.
- Leiden led 66-57 after three quarters and finished 15 points clear.
Leuven went into the campaign with a rejuvenated roster and has since drawn credit for answering early scepticism. The team's own framing is that a young group will produce uneven results while roles settle. That matters for the visit of Leiden because minutes and shot distribution around the young core are still being established, so the home side's game-to-game output is harder to read than its win-loss start suggests.
- Leuven opened the 2026-27 campaign with a rejuvenated squad.
- The team has answered early critics with its start to the season.
- The squad accepts that the season will come with ups and downs as it develops.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Leiden

2.75fair 2.47

Market 36.4% · BetBugs 40.5%

+4.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leiden are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 40 of 100 games like this. Leuven's home games this season have been tight, low-scoring affairs and their poor three-point and free-throw shooting caps their output, while Leiden score a little more freely but meet a Leuven defense allowing only 71.7 in this campaign. Recent head-to-heads were decided by the home side, so I give Leuven a narrow home edge in a game that stays close into the fourth quarter.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Leuven Bears and 15 for Leiden, across seasons and competitions.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostLeuven Bears +4.5Estimated chance76.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Leuven Bears and 15 for Leiden, across seasons and competitions.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonLeuven Bears +2.5Estimated chance68.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeuven BearsEstimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonLeuven BearsEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostLeuven BearsEstimated chance55.5%

Points3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears score more than 16.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Leuven Bears and 15 for Leiden, across seasons and competitions.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonLeuven Bears over 16.5Estimated chance68.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. The 3rd quarter has more than 34.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Leuven Bears and 15 for Leiden, across seasons and competitions.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 34.5Estimated chance65.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leuven Bears score fewer than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonLeuven Bears under 20.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Leuven Bears 77.2, Leiden 73.9. Leiden score fewer than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Leuven Bears and 15 for Leiden, across seasons and competitions.
- Leuven's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 3-17): 73.0 points scored, 71.7 allowed, with home wins of 72-69 over Kortrijk and 69-65 over Spirou Charleroi.
- Leiden's three 2026-27 BNXT games (Oct 2-17): 76.3 scored, 75.0 allowed, including a 92-77 home win over Okapi Aalst on Oct 17.
- Across 15 box scores Leuven shoot 29.2% from three (94/322) and 63.5% from the line, versus Leiden's 34.0% from three and 75.7% from the line.
- Leiden average 34.0 rebounds and 13.0 turnovers per game over 15 games; Leuven average 32.7 rebounds and 13.8 turnovers.
- Head-to-head last season: each team won at home, Leuven 90-73 on Feb 14 2026 and Leiden 90-72 on Dec 20 2025.
- Current table after three rounds: Leiden 4th at 2-1 (229 scored, 225 allowed), Leuven 5th at 2-1 (219 scored, 215 allowed).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostLeiden under 19.5Estimated chance58.9%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 07:19

Selected line

152.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 153+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.80 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 152.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W90–73

Leuven Bearsv Leiden

Leiden

Feb 14, 2026·BNX

L90–72

Leidenv

Leuven Bears

Dec 20, 2025·BNX

W98–63

Leuven Bearsv Leiden

Leiden

Mar 29, 2025·BNX

L78–77

Leidenv

Leuven Bears

Sep 28, 2024·BNX

L81–59

Leidenv

Leuven Bears

Jun 3, 2022·BNX

W82–68

Leuven Bearsv Leiden

Leiden

Jun 1, 2022·BNX

W86–57

Leuven Bearsv Leiden

Leiden

Apr 23, 2022·BNX

L95–66

Leidenv

Leuven Bears

Mar 19, 2022·BNX

154.4Avg total points

20.6Avg margin

8meetings

League table

BNXT League · BNXT League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Leuven Bears

2–167%

Leiden

2–167%

Recent Form

Leuven Bears

6W 9L · last 15

vs Kortrijk72–69 Oct 17BNX

at Donar Groningen78–81 Oct 6BNX

vs Spirou Charleroi69–65 Oct 3BNX

at BAL Weert77–65 May 9BNX

vs Zwolle69–61 May 6BNX

vs Kortrijk86–97 May 2BNX

at Spirou Charleroi69–73 Apr 23BNX

at Den Bosch58–66 Apr 19BNX

vs Den Bosch88–85 Apr 16BNX

at Rotterdam75–85 Apr 10BNX

vs Belfius Mons91–88 Apr 4BNX

at Antwerp Giants81–87 Apr 1BNX

at LWD Basket82–84 Mar 29BNX

at Antwerp Giants72–80 Mar 22BEL

vs Okapi Aalst90–106 Mar 15BNX

Leiden

8W 7L · last 15

vs Okapi Aalst92–77 Oct 17BNX

vs Brussels Basketball61–77 Oct 10BNX

at Rotterdam76–71 Oct 2BNX

at Zwolle74–90 Jun 10DBL

vs Zwolle61–75 Jun 7DBL

at Zwolle61–59 Jun 5DBL

vs Zwolle68–86 Jun 3DBL

at Donar Groningen79–77 May 31DBL

vs Donar Groningen91–71 May 29DBL

at Donar Groningen89–97 May 26DBL

vs Donar Groningen90–78 May 24DBL

at Donar Groningen68–91 May 22DBL

vs LWD Basket107–86 May 19DBL

at LWD Basket85–94 OTMay 18DBL

vs LWD Basket111–72 May 15DBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Leuven Bears

Stats

1–4

Leiden

Leiden leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+6.3pp

55.3%

+6.3pp

49.0%

3-point %+4.8pp

29.2%

+4.8pp

34.0%

Free-throw %+12.2pp

63.5%

+12.2pp

75.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s8.0pp apart

24.9%

8.0pp apart

32.9%

Free throws per shot10.6pp apart

37.5%

10.6pp apart

26.9%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+1.3

32.7

+1.3

34.0

Turnovers per game0.8 fewer

13.8

0.8 fewer

13.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.