Basket LeagueFinished

Predictions graded

Lefkadas94Iraklis86

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions0–10%

Quarter scores unavailable.

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Lefkadas are 0-3 and have had a full week to prepare, while Iraklis are 1-2 but arrive on a short turnaround after a midweek European game.

The expected score after 40 minutes is Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7, making Iraklis a narrow favourite to win. Prices are available across the markets, but none of them stands out at our numbers.

Context

Iraklis have about three days between a FIBA Europe Cup defeat on 21 October and this league game, their third in eight days, while Lefkadas have had a week off since 17 October. Diarra's illness leaves a rotation question that is not yet settled, but neither factor is established as decisive.

Diarra was ruled out shortly before the Dziki game, so the illness arrived during the week of the Lefkada fixture. Whether he has recovered in time for Saturday is unresolved; if he remains unavailable, Iraklis would again be one rotation option short three days after a European game, while a return would remove the concern entirely.
- Hassan Diarra was suffering from a viral infection and a fever, and was ruled out of Iraklis' FIBA Europe Cup game against Dziki Warszawa on 21 October.
- Iraklis had gone into that European fixture with a full squad available the previous day.
The European fixture sat between league games against Karditsas and Lefkada, so Iraklis arrive at the fourth round on a Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday sequence. Hutson's late free throw edged them ahead before Osunniyi won it from the line, and Austin Luke's double-double drove Dziki's offence. Doxa, by contrast, have not played since 17 October, giving the hosts a full week to prepare while Iraklis have a shorter recovery window and may spread minutes more widely.
- Dziki Warszawa beat Iraklis 86-85 in Thessaloniki on 21 October, with Osunniyi's free throw deciding it 1.2 seconds from the end.
- Austin Luke finished with 14 points and 11 assists for Dziki, while Osunniyi scored 17.
- Hutson's free throw had briefly put Iraklis in front late in the same game.
- Iraklis beat Karditsas 71-53 at home on 17 October for their first Basket League win of the season.
Doxa's homecoming after promotion was settled by a single point, with Williams' 22-point, six-assist night carrying Promitheas. Thodoris Terzis' side had been beaten more comfortably at PAOK the previous week, so the home opener was their closest game of the young season. Iraklis now arrive on a short turnaround, and how Doxa follow up that one-point defeat at the same arena will show whether the performance was a one-off or a base to build on.
- Promitheas won 80-79 in Lefkada on 17 October.
- It was Doxa's first home game since returning to the Greek Basket League.
- New Williams scored 22 points and added six assists for Promitheas, making four of seven three-point attempts.
- Doxa had lost 86-73 at PAOK on 10 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7. Iraklis cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lefkadas and 15 for Iraklis, across seasons and competitions.
- Lefkadas are 0-3 in the Basket League and concede 85.7 points per game, including an 80-79 home loss to Promitheas on 17 October.
- Iraklis are 1-2 in the Basket League with 228 points scored and 222 conceded; they beat Karditsas 71-53 on 17 October and lost 89-91 in overtime at Peristeri on 10 October.
- Iraklis played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 21 October, losing 85-86 to Dziki Warszawa, and have about 2.9 days rest before this game; Lefkadas have not played since 17 October.
- Over its three league box scores Lefkadas shot 34.8% from three and 65.4% from the free-throw line, with 29.7 rebounds and 12.7 turnovers per game.
- Over 15 recent games Iraklis shot 31.8% from three, 66.6% from the line, and averaged 33.7 rebounds and 15.1 turnovers per game.
- In the last two completed meetings at Lefkadas, Iraklis won 79-71 in April 2024 while Lefkadas won 70-69 in January 2025, though both were in the A2 and with different rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Handicapnot gradableIraklis +2.5Estimated chance68.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7. Iraklis cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lefkadas and 15 for Iraklis, across seasons and competitions.
- Lefkadas are 0-3 in the Basket League and concede 85.7 points per game, including an 80-79 home loss to Promitheas on 17 October.
- Iraklis are 1-2 in the Basket League with 228 points scored and 222 conceded; they beat Karditsas 71-53 on 17 October and lost 89-91 in overtime at Peristeri on 10 October.
- Iraklis played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 21 October, losing 85-86 to Dziki Warszawa, and have about 2.9 days rest before this game; Lefkadas have not played since 17 October.
- Over its three league box scores Lefkadas shot 34.8% from three and 65.4% from the free-throw line, with 29.7 rebounds and 12.7 turnovers per game.
- Over 15 recent games Iraklis shot 31.8% from three, 66.6% from the line, and averaged 33.7 rebounds and 15.1 turnovers per game.
- In the last two completed meetings at Lefkadas, Iraklis won 79-71 in April 2024 while Lefkadas won 70-69 in January 2025, though both were in the A2 and with different rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Handicapnot gradableIraklis +2.5Estimated chance66.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7. Iraklis win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Lefkadas are 0-3 in the Basket League and concede 85.7 points per game, including an 80-79 home loss to Promitheas on 17 October.
- Iraklis are 1-2 in the Basket League with 228 points scored and 222 conceded; they beat Karditsas 71-53 on 17 October and lost 89-91 in overtime at Peristeri on 10 October.
- Iraklis played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 21 October, losing 85-86 to Dziki Warszawa, and have about 2.9 days rest before this game; Lefkadas have not played since 17 October.
- Over its three league box scores Lefkadas shot 34.8% from three and 65.4% from the free-throw line, with 29.7 rebounds and 12.7 turnovers per game.
- Over 15 recent games Iraklis shot 31.8% from three, 66.6% from the line, and averaged 33.7 rebounds and 15.1 turnovers per game.
- In the last two completed meetings at Lefkadas, Iraklis won 79-71 in April 2024 while Lefkadas won 70-69 in January 2025, though both were in the A2 and with different rosters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIraklisEstimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7. Iraklis are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lefkadas are 0-3 in the Basket League and concede 85.7 points per game, including an 80-79 home loss to Promitheas on 17 October.
- Iraklis are 1-2 in the Basket League with 228 points scored and 222 conceded; they beat Karditsas 71-53 on 17 October and lost 89-91 in overtime at Peristeri on 10 October.
- Iraklis played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 21 October, losing 85-86 to Dziki Warszawa, and have about 2.9 days rest before this game; Lefkadas have not played since 17 October.
- Over its three league box scores Lefkadas shot 34.8% from three and 65.4% from the free-throw line, with 29.7 rebounds and 12.7 turnovers per game.
- Over 15 recent games Iraklis shot 31.8% from three, 66.6% from the line, and averaged 33.7 rebounds and 15.1 turnovers per game.
- In the last two completed meetings at Lefkadas, Iraklis won 79-71 in April 2024 while Lefkadas won 70-69 in January 2025, though both were in the A2 and with different rosters.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minnot gradableIraklisEstimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lefkadas 77.6, Iraklis 80.7. Iraklis are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Lefkadas are 0-3 in the Basket League and concede 85.7 points per game, including an 80-79 home loss to Promitheas on 17 October.
- Iraklis are 1-2 in the Basket League with 228 points scored and 222 conceded; they beat Karditsas 71-53 on 17 October and lost 89-91 in overtime at Peristeri on 10 October.
- Iraklis played a FIBA Europe Cup game on 21 October, losing 85-86 to Dziki Warszawa, and have about 2.9 days rest before this game; Lefkadas have not played since 17 October.
- Over its three league box scores Lefkadas shot 34.8% from three and 65.4% from the free-throw line, with 29.7 rebounds and 12.7 turnovers per game.
- Over 15 recent games Iraklis shot 31.8% from three, 66.6% from the line, and averaged 33.7 rebounds and 15.1 turnovers per game.
- In the last two completed meetings at Lefkadas, Iraklis won 79-71 in April 2024 while Lefkadas won 70-69 in January 2025, though both were in the A2 and with different rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Resultnot gradableIraklisEstimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 23, 05:47

Selected line

158.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 159+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 158.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W70–69

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Jan 4, 2025·A2

L86–75

Iraklisv

Lefkadas

Oct 30, 2024·A2

L71–79

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Apr 6, 2024·A2

L81–78

Iraklisv

Lefkadas

Dec 23, 2023·A2OT

W20–0

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Sep 30, 2023·GRE

L87–89

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Mar 31, 2018·A2

W75–77

Iraklisv

Lefkadas

Dec 9, 2017·A2

W76–74

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Feb 13, 2016·A2

W70–82

Iraklisv

Lefkadas

Oct 10, 2015·A2

W94–87

Lefkadasv

Iraklis

Feb 7, 2015·A2

144Avg total points

6.8Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Basket League · Basket League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Lefkadas

0–30%

Iraklis

1–233%

Recent Form

Lefkadas

10W 5L · last 15

vs Promitheas79–80 Oct 17BAS

at PAOK73–86 Oct 10BAS

at Kolossos Rhodes75–91 Oct 3BAS

at Dafni65–54 Apr 4A2

vs Psychikou87–78 Mar 28A2

vs Peiramatiko Machites55–63 Mar 21A2

at Koroivos73–68 Mar 18A2

vs Volos64–53 Mar 14A2

at Panerythraikos80–79 Mar 7A2

vs Lavrio88–80 Feb 28A2

at Papagou72–64 Feb 21A2

vs Egaleo77–71 Feb 15A2

at Proteas Voulas67–73 Feb 12A2

vs Vikos88–81 Feb 9A2

vs Chalkida76–71 Jan 24A2

Iraklis

4W 11L · last 15

vs Dziki Warszawa85–86 Oct 21FIB

vs AS Karditsas71–53 Oct 17BAS

vs Wurzburg90–73 Oct 14FIB

at Peristeri89–91 OTOct 10BAS

at MZT Skopje64–59 Oct 6FIB

vs Olympiacos68–78 Oct 4BAS

at Promitheas85–97 Apr 25BAS

vs PAOK72–76 Apr 18BAS

at Panionios77–103 Apr 4BAS

vs Dziki Warszawa83–84 Apr 1ENB

vs Maroussi72–91 Mar 29BAS

at AEK Athens87–100 Mar 22BAS

at Dziki Warszawa82–89 Mar 18ENB

at Kolossos Rhodes85–98 Mar 15BAS

vs Tal Tech76–63 Mar 11ENB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Lefkadas

3 games

Stats

2–3

Iraklis

Iraklis leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.3pp

51.4%

+0.3pp

51.7%

3-point %+3.0pp

34.8%

+3.0pp

31.8%

Free-throw %+1.2pp

65.4%

+1.2pp

66.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.0pp apart

32.1%

1.0pp apart

33.1%

Free throws per shot7.2pp apart

29.7%

7.2pp apart

36.9%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+4.0

29.7

+4.0

33.7

Turnovers per game2.4 fewer

12.7

2.4 fewer

15.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.