KorisliigaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

KTP Kotka Basket99Kouvot Kouvola75

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–1248%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: KTP Kotka Basket and Kouvot Kouvola.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
KTP Kotka Basket	21	22	27	29
Kouvot Kouvola	12	23	20	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

KTP beat Kouvot 95-89 in Kouvola two days ago and sit 6-0 in the league to Kouvot's 1-5, so a home win is the likely result, something near 95-85.

KTP at 1.04 to win, or 1.05 to be ahead after 40 minutes, asks for nearly everything to go right. The first-half prices carry the case: over 86.5 combined points at 1.85 and Kouvot +7.5 at 1.85.

Context

KTP are without a starting guard for a reported minimum of four weeks, and Kouvot are on a fourth game in ten days; both weigh on rotations more than on the result.

Hirvonen went down in KTP's second Korisliiga game of the campaign, at Karhu Basket in early October, and the minimum four-week prognosis puts his return no earlier than the end of the month. That leaves Greg Gibson's backcourt short for a game coming two days after KTP's 95-89 win over Kouvot, and the same reporting flagged a difficult start for A.J. White while raising the question of outside guard cover. Hirvonen had been starting before the injury, so his absence changes how KTP build their half-court offence against a Kouvot side they have just beaten. KTP have not published a squad list for this game, so his status rests on the four-week estimate rather than a fresh update.
- Tuomas Hirvonen was injured in KTP's second league game of the season, away to Karhu Basket.
- His absence was put at a minimum of four weeks, a spell reaching the end of October.
Gillis sat out the 9 October home game against Pyrintö with an injury, the only interruption to an otherwise perfect KTP start, and he was back on court against Kouvot on 21 October with 23 points and 13 rebounds. The game finished 95-89, so his production was the difference between a comfortable night and a tight one, and Kouvot now get two days to find a better answer to him. Because the rematch is against the same opponent, Kouvot's staff can adjust cover immediately rather than wait for a new scouting cycle. KTP have given no indication of any restriction on Gillis for this game, and nothing suggests he will be managed differently.
- Mason Gillis scored 23 points and collected 13 rebounds in KTP's 95-89 win over Kouvot on 21 October.
- Gillis had missed KTP's home game against Pyrintö on 9 October because of injury.
The schedule puts the same two clubs on court twice in three days, so both staffs work from the scouting report they used on 21 October rather than a fresh one. KTP took that first game 95-89, and Kouvot's response is the open question: they can change matchups on the players who hurt them straight away, while KTP have to decide whether to repeat what worked. KTP are the home side in the second game, which shifts the crowd and the bench-side calls but not the tactical problem. With such a short gap, the second meeting is likely to be decided by in-series adjustments rather than by new information, and neither club has confirmed its squad for it.
- KTP won 95-89 against Kouvot on 21 October.
- The clubs are scheduled to play again on 23 October, with KTP at home.
KTP's league record stood at five wins from five after the 17 October trip to Korihait, part of a run that included away games at Karhu Basket and Salon Vilpas. The unbeaten start is the backdrop to a home fixture against a Kouvot side that has won once in the league this season, and it explains why the first meeting was treated as a test of KTP's credentials rather than a routine round. What the streak does not establish is margin: several of those wins were tighter than the table suggests, so it is a record to protect rather than evidence of dominance.
- KTP extended their league winning run to five with the win at Korihait on 17 October.
- KTP had not lost a Korisliiga game at that stage of the season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 86.5

1.85fair 1.60

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 62.4%

+8.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. The 1st half has more than 86.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. KTP have been clearly the stronger side this season, with an unbeaten league record, better shooting and rebounding, and a 95-89 win over Kouvot two days earlier. Kouvot concede heavily in the league and now face a quick rematch away from home, so KTP should score in the mid-90s while Kouvot land in the mid-80s.

1st Half HandicaplostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Kouvot Kouvola +7.5

1.85fair 1.74

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 57.4%

+3.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola cover +7.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this. KTP have been clearly the stronger side this season, with an unbeaten league record, better shooting and rebounding, and a 95-89 win over Kouvot two days earlier. Kouvot concede heavily in the league and now face a quick rematch away from home, so KTP should score in the mid-90s while Kouvot land in the mid-80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket win in about 79 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance79.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 78 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance77.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 71 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostKTP Kotka Basket -0.5Estimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola cover +13.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · HandicaplostKouvot Kouvola +13.5Estimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonKTP Kotka Basket -0.5Estimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola cover +7.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostKouvot Kouvola +7.5Estimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola cover +3.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostKouvot Kouvola +3.5Estimated chance55.8%

Points5 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 16.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKouvot Kouvola over 16.5Estimated chance81.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKTP Kotka Basket over 20.5Estimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonKouvot Kouvola over 18.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 80.5 points (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · Team PointslostKouvot Kouvola over 80.5Estimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 41.5Estimated chance65.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostKouvot Kouvola over 39.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. The 2nd quarter has more than 42.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 42.5Estimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. The game has more than 174.5 points (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 174.5Estimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for KTP Kotka Basket and 15 for Kouvot Kouvola, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostKTP Kotka Basket over 22.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. The 1st half has more than 86.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 86.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostKTP Kotka Basket over 46.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: KTP Kotka Basket 94.8, Kouvot Kouvola 84.5. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 6-0 in Korisliiga, averaging 92.7 points and allowing 78.8 through six league games (table observed 22 Oct).
- Kouvot are 1-5 in Korisliiga, averaging 85.3 points and allowing 87.8; their only league win was 95-76 at home to Kataja on 16 Oct.
- KTP won the first meeting 95-89 at Kouvot on 21 Oct, with Mason Gillis scoring 23 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
- Across 15 tracked box scores, KTP shoot 38.2% from three and 78.0% from the line with 36.7 rebounds per game; Kouvot shoot 34.0% from three, 75.4% from the line and grab 34.7 rebounds.
- Kouvot are playing their fourth game in ten days, following 14, 16 and 21 October fixtures, while KTP also played on 21 October but are at home for the rematch.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostKouvot Kouvola over 20.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 22, 17:47

Selected line

174.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

63%

Chance of 175+ points

+4 pp above break-even

Over 1.71 needs 58% to break even. BetBugs sees 63%.

Move the line main 174.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 63%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 37%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W89–95

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Oct 21, 2026·KOR

L90–80

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Jan 20, 2026·KOR

W103–76

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Nov 14, 2025·KOR

L108–84

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Mar 15, 2025·KOR

W84–76

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Feb 8, 2025·KOR

L98–87

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Dec 15, 2024·KOR

L101–107

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Oct 11, 2024·KOROT

W84–78

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Mar 15, 2024·KOR

L89–72

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Feb 14, 2024·KOR

W98–80

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Dec 12, 2023·KOR

177.9Avg total points

13.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Korisliiga · Korisliiga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

KTP Kotka Basket

6–0100%

Kouvot Kouvola

1–517%

Recent Form

KTP Kotka Basket

11W 4L · last 15

at Kouvot Kouvola95–89 Oct 21KOR

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki100–89 Oct 17KOR

at Salon Vilpas102–81 Oct 14KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere88–72 Oct 9KOR

at Karhu Basket84–78 Oct 3KOR

vs Bisons Loimaa87–64 Sep 29KOR

vs Kipina86–78 Sep 16SUO

at Karhu Basket95–88 Sep 9SUO

vs Helsinki Seagulls70–78 Apr 9KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls79–89 Apr 7KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls72–81 Apr 5KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls87–85 Apr 1KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls83–95 Mar 30KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls92–76 Mar 27KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls79–77 Mar 24KOR

Kouvot Kouvola

7W 8L · last 15

vs KTP Kotka Basket89–95 Oct 21KOR

vs Kataja95–76 Oct 16KOR

at Lahti Basketball83–91 Oct 14KOR

vs Kipina80–89 Oct 6KOR

at Honka91–99 Oct 3KOR

vs Karhu Basket74–77 Sep 30KOR

vs UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki85–73 Sep 22SUO

at Honka96–84 Sep 16SUO

vs Kobrat103–99 Mar 18KOR

at Pyrinto Tampere93–78 Mar 14KOR

at Kataja88–112 Mar 10KOR

vs Bisons Loimaa76–74 Mar 5KOR

at Lahti Basketball96–80 Feb 22KOR

at Kobrat83–86 Feb 19KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere63–77 Feb 15KOR

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

KTP Kotka Basket

Stats

3–2

Kouvot Kouvola

KTP Kotka Basket leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.6pp

48.3%

+1.6pp

49.9%

3-point %+4.2pp

38.2%

+4.2pp

34.0%

Free-throw %+2.6pp

78.0%

+2.6pp

75.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.0pp apart

38.2%

1.0pp apart

37.2%

Free throws per shot3.7pp apart

30.4%

3.7pp apart

26.7%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.0

36.7

+2.0

34.7

Turnovers per game0.1 fewer

13.2

0.1 fewer

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.