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Predictions graded

Illawarra Hawks82Sydney108

Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–1343%

Points by period: Illawarra Hawks and Sydney.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Illawarra Hawks	19	17	16	30
Sydney	20	28	34	26

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Illawarra's home scoring against Sydney's unproven road game is the tension.

Sydney have the stronger record, the recent head-to-head edge and the clearer top-end scoring, so the likelier result is a Sydney win by around eight after 40 minutes. Illawarra with a 6.5-point start at 1.86 does not justify backing, and no price stands out.

Context

Dellavedova has not played since 11 October because of a calf problem and no return date is set; Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery. Sydney's 4-2 record comes entirely from six NBL home games through 17 October, so their road form is untested.

Dellavedova was pulled from the line-up before the 14 October home game against New Zealand and stayed out for the 17 October meeting with Perth, with Lachlan Bofinger added as his replacement. Goorjian then said on 16 October that the lower-leg problem would keep him out for an undisclosed period rather than a set number of games. Sydney's offence runs through Kendric Davis, and the coach has already said his mainstays are wearing down, so the backcourt minutes behind Davis fall to younger, less experienced guards. No return date has been offered, so Dellavedova may miss this game as well without being formally ruled out of it.
- Sydney ruled Matthew Dellavedova out of the 14 October game against New Zealand and the 17 October game against Perth with a calf injury, adding Lachlan Bofinger in his place.
- Brian Goorjian said on 16 October that Dellavedova remains out for an undisclosed period because the lower-leg injury has to be handled carefully.
Peatling's foot problem became season-ending surgery on 9 October, having kept him out since the opening rounds. Illawarra had already moved to cover the position, signing Makur Maker on 1 October, and Maker has since become a scoring option inside with a career-high 23 points in the 18 October win at Melbourne United. Against a Sydney front line using Xavier Cooks, Harry Wessels and Andrew Carr, Illawarra have limited experienced size behind Sam Froling and Maker, so early foul trouble in that group would force the Hawks into a smaller line-up.
- Illawarra confirmed on 9 October that Mason Peatling will miss the remainder of NBL27 after choosing surgery on his foot.
- The Hawks signed Makur Maker on 1 October to reinforce a frontcourt the club called stretched thin.
Maker, signed on 1 October as frontcourt cover, produced his best game as a Hawk in Melbourne: 23 points, back-to-back back picks that finished in alley-oop dunks and a go-ahead three. Illawarra led by 16, lost the lead, then survived a last look at the buzzer for their first away win of the season after a 1-6 start. Maker's inside scoring has become a real second option alongside the perimeter group of Milton Doyle, Tyler Harvey and Will Hickey, which matters against a Sydney side whose bigs have been in foul trouble and whose coach has shuffled his front line.
- Makur Maker scored a career-high 23 points, including the go-ahead three, as Illawarra won at Melbourne United on 18 October.
- The result was Illawarra's first road win of NBL27, after one win in their first seven games.
Sydney won their first three games, then lost 84-78 to Adelaide and 101-102 at home to New Zealand before the Perth visit. Against the Wildcats the starters carried the load: Davis scored 23 with eight assists, Craig posted a double-double and Sydney turned a 52-43 halftime lead into a 21-point win. Goorjian had criticised his bench after the New Zealand loss, when the reserves scored four points, so the fix came from the starting group rather than the rotation. Sydney have not played since 17 October, five days before this game.
- Sydney beat Perth 102-81 on 17 October, ending the Wildcats' four-game winning run.
- Kendric Davis scored 23 points with eight assists and Torrey Craig posted a double-double and player of the game honours in the win.
- The win followed losses to Adelaide on 11 October and to New Zealand on 14 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks cover +6.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Illawarra Hawks and 15 for Sydney, across seasons and competitions.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostIllawarra Hawks +6.5Estimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney win in about 73 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSydneyEstimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 71 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonSydneyEstimated chance71.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Illawarra Hawks and 15 for Sydney, across seasons and competitions.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostIllawarra Hawks +4.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance56.4%

Points4 of 15 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney score more than 100.5 points (overtime included) in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · Team PointswonSydney over 100.5Estimated chance72.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. The game has more than 197.5 points (overtime included) in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 197.5Estimated chance68.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 47.5 points in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Illawarra Hawks and 15 for Sydney, across seasons and competitions.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 47.5Estimated chance66.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney score more than 50.5 points in the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSydney over 50.5Estimated chance65.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks score more than 94.5 points (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks over 94.5Estimated chance65.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. The 1st half has more than 98.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 98.5Estimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney score more than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Illawarra Hawks and 15 for Sydney, across seasons and competitions.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonSydney over 24.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney score more than 25.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonSydney over 25.5Estimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 49.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 49.5Estimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. The 1st quarter has more than 49.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostOver 49.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks score more than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks over 23.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks score more than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks over 47.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Sydney score more than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSydney over 25.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks score more than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Illawarra Hawks and 15 for Sydney, across seasons and competitions.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks over 23.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Illawarra Hawks 98.4, Sydney 106.2. Illawarra Hawks score more than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Illawarra are 2-6 and have conceded 105.6 points per game across eight NBL games through 18 October, including 108.0 per game in three home games.
- Sydney are 4-2 with a +71 point differential, conceding 89.2 per game in six NBL games through 17 October, but all six were at home.
- Sydney won the only 2026-27 meeting 121-100 on 27 September and have won the last five head-to-heads by an average of 23.2 points.
- Illawarra scored 100, 112 and 114 in their three home games this season, though those came against Cairns, Tasmania and Adelaide.
- Dellavedova has been out since 11 October with a calf injury, while Maker's 23 points on 18 October gave Illawarra a new frontcourt option after Peatling's season-ending foot surgery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks over 23.5Estimated chance57.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 21, 05:22

Selected line

197.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

68%

Chance of 198+ points

+16 pp above break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 68%.

Move the line main 197.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 68%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 32%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L121–100

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Sep 27, 2026·NBL

L94–120

Illawarra Hawksv Sydney

Sydney

Feb 13, 2026·NBL

L122–104

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Jan 29, 2026·NBL

L108–84

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Dec 25, 2025·NBL

L71–98

Illawarra Hawksv Sydney

Sydney

Nov 16, 2025·NBL

W95–75

Illawarra Hawksv Sydney

Sydney

Feb 7, 2025·NBL

W108–111

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Dec 25, 2024·NBL

W86–79

Illawarra Hawksv Sydney

Sydney

Nov 16, 2024·NBL

W89–96

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Sep 29, 2024·NBL

W95–106

Sydneyv

Illawarra Hawks

Feb 11, 2024·NBL

196.2Avg total points

16.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Illawarra Hawks

2–625%

Sydney

4–267%

Recent Form

Illawarra Hawks

5W 10L · last 15

at Melbourne United91–89 Oct 18NBL

vs Cairns Taipans100–110 Oct 11NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers112–122 Oct 9NBL

at South East Melbourne96–113 Oct 4NBL

vs Adelaide114–92 Oct 2NBL

at Sydney100–121 Sep 27NBL

at Brisbane Bullets95–103 Sep 25NBL

at New Zealand Breakers81–95 Sep 20NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers103–70 Feb 18NBL

at Melbourne United100–91 Feb 15NBL

vs Sydney94–120 Feb 13NBL

at New Zealand Breakers95–106 Feb 7NBL

vs Adelaide100–99 Feb 5NBL

vs Perth99–106 Jan 31NBL

at Sydney104–122 Jan 29NBL

Sydney

11W 4L · last 15

vs Perth102–81 Oct 17NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers101–102 Oct 14NBL

vs Adelaide78–84 Oct 11NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets93–78 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks121–100 Sep 27NBL

vs Cairns Taipans111–90 Sep 20NBL

vs Adelaide113–101 OTApr 5NBL

at Adelaide91–92 Apr 1NBL

vs Adelaide106–93 Mar 29NBL

at Adelaide89–91 Mar 27NBL

vs Adelaide112–68 Mar 21NBL

at Perth89–75 Mar 14NBL

vs Perth105–104 Mar 11NBL

at Brisbane Bullets117–77 Feb 20NBL

vs Perth102–84 Feb 15NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Illawarra Hawks

Stats

1–4

Sydney

Sydney leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.9pp

56.0%

+2.9pp

58.9%

3-point %+2.5pp

35.8%

+2.5pp

38.3%

Free-throw %+0.8pp

74.9%

+0.8pp

74.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.1pp apart

32.1%

2.1pp apart

34.2%

Free throws per shot3.5pp apart

24.1%

3.5pp apart

27.6%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+1.2

36.7

+1.2

37.9

Turnovers per game2.1 fewer

11.9

2.1 fewer

9.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.