EuroCupFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tortona89San Pablo Burgos79

Wed 21 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–663%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Tortona and San Pablo Burgos.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tortona	18	18	22	31
San Pablo Burgos	25	20	17	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both teams are 1-2 in EuroCup Group A and both have been losing, so round four is a chance for one of them to steady.

Tortona's home scoring gives them a narrow edge in a game that should land in the mid-80s. Burgos to win at 2.46 and Burgos over 19.5 points in the third quarter at 1.88 are the two prices that offer something; Tortona's short prices do not.

Context

Tortona have lost their last three games and conceded 92.3 points per game across eight 2026-27 outings, while Burgos have lost four straight and play a third game in eight days, so recent form and workload touch both sides.

Tortona are in their first EuroCup season and their early results came mostly at home, where they beat Verona 101-93 in the Serie A opener and Le Mans in round two. The home defeat to Maxima Roma came three days after an 88-68 loss in Thessaloniki and prompted an admission of responsibility from the bench. A second home game in four days now brings Burgos to town, so the hosts have a short window to repair the rhythm and defensive edges Roma exposed. Tortona's scoring balance, with Jallow and Olejniczak carrying much of the inside load, is the area most likely to be adjusted.
- Giovanni Veronesi scored 20 points and Bilan was also central as Maxima Roma won 89-75.
- Karim Jallow led Tortona with 15 points and Dominik Olejniczak added 12 points and eight rebounds.
- Tortona's bench called it a really bad performance and took responsibility for the defeat.
Burgos' European return has been hard on results: the one-point home loss to Hapoel Jerusalem on 14 October was followed by a league defeat in which Obradoiro's shooting made the difference and Steward's 21 points were the main resistance. Steward has been the side's most dependable scoring outlet in the opening weeks, and a run of narrow losses puts weight on late-game execution. Round four in Tortona is the sort of road game where Burgos' half-court offence and rebounding get tested; keeping the game within reach into the fourth quarter shapes their chances.
- Monbus Obradoiro won 79-72 at the Coliseum for their third win of the Spanish league season.
- Obradoiro's shooting decided the game as Burgos failed to close the gap.
- DJ Steward scored 21 points and was named Burgos' standout performer of the night.
- Burgos had lost 85-84 to Hapoel Jerusalem at home in EuroCup round three on 14 October.
Group A's early shape is being set by Aris, who have beaten both of these clubs while building a 3-0 record. Tortona, contesting their first EuroCup season, lost their opener to a last-second Rīgas Zelli basket and then beat Le Mans for a first win in the competition; Burgos have lost to Aris and, narrowly, to Hapoel Jerusalem. With the leading side already separating itself, a round-four meeting between two of the chasing clubs gives the winner a foothold and leaves the loser needing results in the return legs.
- Aris beat Burgos in round two and then Tortona 88-68 in Thessaloniki on 14 October to stay unbeaten.
- Tortona beat Le Mans at home on 7 October for the club's first EuroCup victory.
- Tortona's EuroCup opener ended with a last-second loss to Rīgas Zelli.
Burgos' calendar has tightened: a EuroCup home game on 14 October, a league game at the Coliseum on 17 October, then a EuroCup road game in Italy, with Manresa following on 24 October. The Obradoiro defeat was read as a symptom of that load, and the club framed the week as one spent away from Burgos. Across three games in eight days the way minutes are distributed can matter as much as the game plan, and a short rotation would show first in the fourth quarter in Tortona.
- Burgos hosted Hapoel Jerusalem on 14 October and Obradoiro on 17 October before the EuroCup game in Tortona on 21 October.
- The club described the week after the Obradoiro defeat as one of away commitments.
- Burgos looked drained by the European schedule in the Obradoiro defeat.
- Manresa are next in the Spanish league on 24 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Team PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

San Pablo Burgos over 19.5

1.88fair 1.61

Market 53.2% · BetBugs 62.2%

+9.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Tortona score noticeably better at home and hold a turnover advantage, while Burgos have the better two-point shooting but a heavier error count and a third game in eight days with travel. Burgos' road scoring in Spain has been solid, but their EuroCup road output (80 at Aris) and Tortona's home rhythm leave the hosts narrowly ahead in a game both defences should allow into the mid-80s.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

San Pablo Burgos

2.46fair 2.15

Market 40.7% · BetBugs 46.5%

+5.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos win in about 47 of 100 games like this, overtime included. Tortona score noticeably better at home and hold a turnover advantage, while Burgos have the better two-point shooting but a heavier error count and a third game in eight days with travel. Burgos' road scoring in Spain has been solid, but their EuroCup road output (80 at Aris) and Tortona's home rhythm leave the hosts narrowly ahead in a game both defences should allow into the mid-80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. Tortona cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonTortona +2.5Estimated chance64.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos cover +4.5 (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · HandicaplostSan Pablo Burgos +4.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos cover +2.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +2.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +1.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +1.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. Tortona win in about 53 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTortonaEstimated chance53.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 51 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonTortonaEstimated chance51.1%

Points4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 19.5Estimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 83.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. Tortona score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonTortona under 22.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 20.5Estimated chance56.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 41.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSan Pablo Burgos over 41.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonSan Pablo Burgos over 20.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. Tortona score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonTortona over 20.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 86.3, San Pablo Burgos 85.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- EuroCup 2026, three games each: Tortona 80.3 scored / 86.3 conceded (1-2, 241-257); Burgos 83.0 / 86.3 (1-2, 249-259).
- Tortona at home this season (4 games, Serie A and EuroCup): 88.8 points per game, including 101-93 over Verona on 27 Sep and 89-83 over Le Mans on 7 Oct.
- Tortona have conceded 92.3 per game across eight 2026-27 games, including 108 at BC Roma on 4 Oct and 89 at home to Maxima Roma on 18 Oct.
- Burgos have scored 87.5 per game in ACB 2026-27 (4 games) but also allowed 88.5; their three EuroCup games produced 80, 84 and 85 points.
- Shooting across 14-15 box scores: Burgos 53.2% on twos vs Tortona 51.3%; Tortona 36.9% on threes vs Burgos 34.8%; free throws 76.0% vs 73.8%.
- Ball control: Tortona 10.9 turnovers per game vs Burgos 13.7 (15 games each), though Burgos rebound slightly better (33.3 vs 32.3).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 20, 01:05

Selected line

170.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

54%

Chance of 171+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 54%.

Move the line main 170.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

League table

EuroCup · Eurocup - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Tortona

1–233%

San Pablo Burgos

1–233%

Recent Form

Tortona

6W 9L · last 15

vs Maxima Roma75–89 Oct 18LEG

at Aris68–88 Oct 14EUR

at Reggiana86–93 Oct 11LEG

vs Le Mans89–83 Oct 7EUR

at BC Roma70–108 Oct 4LEG

at Rigas Zelli84–86 Sep 30EUR

vs Verona101–93 Sep 27LEG

vs Venezia90–98 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia83–89 May 26LEG

vs Venezia89–71 May 24LEG

vs Venezia82–71 May 22LEG

at Venezia75–87 May 19LEG

at Venezia82–89 May 17LEG

at Venezia78–75 May 10LEG

vs Brescia88–80 May 3LEG

San Pablo Burgos

7W 8L · last 15

vs Obradoiro CAB72–79 Oct 17ACB

vs Hapoel Jerusalem84–85 Oct 14EUR

at Bilbao87–96 Oct 11ACB

at Aris80–93 Oct 7EUR

at Forca Lleida94–81 Oct 4ACB

vs Cedevita Olimpija85–81 Sep 30EUR

vs Baskonia97–98 Sep 27ACB

vs Granada110–105 May 29ACB

at Joventut Badalona79–86 May 24ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra85–83 May 17ACB

vs Unicaja97–90 May 14ACB

at Barcelona76–91 May 9ACB

vs Forca Lleida99–91 May 2ACB

at Manresa101–94 Apr 26ACB

vs Breogan94–99 Apr 19ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tortona

Stats

2–3

San Pablo Burgos

San Pablo Burgos leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %14/15 games+1.9pp

51.3%

+1.9pp

53.2%

3-point %14/15 games+2.1pp

36.9%

+2.1pp

34.8%

Free-throw %11/12 games+2.2pp

73.8%

+2.2pp

76.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/15 games2.7pp apart

31.8%

2.7pp apart

29.1%

Free throws per shot11/12 games4.0pp apart

33.3%

4.0pp apart

29.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game14/15 games+1.0

32.3

+1.0

33.3

Turnovers per game2.8 fewer

10.9

2.8 fewer

13.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.