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Predictions graded

Tasmania JackJumpers106Brisbane Bullets85

Wed 21 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Points by period: Tasmania JackJumpers and Brisbane Bullets.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tasmania JackJumpers	22	34	28	22
Brisbane Bullets	15	29	20	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

The tension is top-placed Tasmania hosting a Brisbane team that has lost both road games, in a rematch of 3 October's overtime thriller.

The expected 96.3-90.2 scoreline makes Tasmania roughly two-in-three to lead after 40 minutes and about 69 in 100 to win, overtime included. No quoted price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Tasmania play a third game in six days after 16 and 18 October, while Brisbane have had six days since 15 October. Brisbane's availability is the biggest unknown: Tyrell Harrison's ankle is being assessed day by day, Arnas Velička is expected to miss about eight weeks with a quad injury and Raul Neto's debut is undecided, while Ben Ayre could return for Tasmania.

Harrison is Brisbane's starting centre and the interior anchor of a frontcourt that also uses Jaylin Williams and Lat Mayen. His ankle problem surfaced around the 15 October home win over South East Melbourne, the same night Weaver raised concern about Jacob Holt's ankle, and the club has set no return date beyond a day-by-day assessment. Holt is back in return-to-play work, so Brisbane may have to defend Will Magnay and Josh Bannan with a smaller frontcourt or use Holt before he is fully up to speed. Tasmania's post-heavy attack makes the missing rim protection the most direct consequence.
- Will Weaver said Tyrell Harrison is out with an ankle injury and will be assessed day by day.
- Ankle trouble emerged around the 15 October win over South East Melbourne, when Weaver said he was concerned about the ankles of both Harrison and Jacob Holt.
- Jacob Holt has since been listed in return-to-play work.
Velička opened the season as Brisbane's lead guard and the quad problem is a long-term one rather than a game-to-game concern, so the club signed an outside replacement instead of patching the rotation internally. The ball-handling load has shifted to Nate Hinton and Max Mackinnon, both of whom Weaver has said are carrying more on-ball responsibility than planned when they were recruited. Velička will not feature in Hobart, and the question for this game is how well that reworked backcourt copes with Tasmania's pressure.
- Arnas Velička is expected to miss eight weeks with a quad injury.
- Brisbane signed Raul Neto as an injury replacement for Velička.
Neto, 34, signed as Brisbane's injury cover for Arnas Velička and was welcomed into the group on 19 October, but Weaver's update the same day was deliberately open: the guard was still being tested and no debut was promised. A first NBL appearance in Hobart would immediately change who initiates Brisbane's offence and how much Nate Hinton and Max Mackinnon play on the ball. If Neto is held back, the backcourt remains as it was for the South East Melbourne win. His availability is a genuine unknown rather than a scheduled debut.
- Brisbane announced Raul Neto on 13 October as an injury replacement for Arnas Velička, initially subject to league approval.
- Will Weaver said on 19 October that Neto was still being tested and would not commit to a debut.
- Neto brings 464 NBA games of experience and spent last season with San Pablo Burgos in Spain's Liga Endesa.
Ayre has been sidelined by a hip flexor problem that Tasmania initially framed as a three-to-four-week absence in late September, and he has not featured in the opening rounds. Cover was signed in the form of Biwali Bayles and Kody Stattmann while Ayre and Anthony Drmic were out. The club's basketball general manager, Darren Smith, spoke on local radio on 18 October about whether Ayre could return for the Wednesday game, which places him close to playing without making it certain. A return would give Scott Roth another ball-handler behind Taran Armstrong and Dakota Mathias during a heavy stretch.
- Tasmania put Ben Ayre at three to four weeks with a hip flexor injury on 24 September.
- Basketball general manager Darren Smith discussed on 18 October whether Ayre could be back for the Wednesday game.
- The club signed Biwali Bayles and Kody Stattmann as cover while Ayre and Anthony Drmic were unavailable.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance68.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Brisbane Bullets cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostBrisbane Bullets +4.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance66.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonTasmania JackJumpers -0.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Brisbane Bullets cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostBrisbane Bullets +2.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance55.4%

Points0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 47.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Brisbane Bullets score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets over 21.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score fewer than 49.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostTasmania JackJumpers under 49.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 96.3, Brisbane Bullets 90.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 5-2 and top of the NBL after seven games, scoring 97.7 and conceding 94.7 per game through 18 Oct.
- Brisbane are 3-3 and fifth, scoring 95.7 and conceding 97.3; they are 0-2 on the road after 91-97 at Cairns on 8 Oct and 78-93 at Sydney on 30 Sep.
- Tasmania beat Brisbane 109-99 in overtime in Brisbane on 3 Oct, with the game tied after regulation after Tasmania erased a 14-point deficit.
- Tasmania shoot 52.5% on twos, 33.2% on threes and 77.5% from the line over 14 tracked games; Brisbane shoot 53.5%, 28.4% and 65.7% over 13.
- Tasmania average 10.6 turnovers to Brisbane's 12.9, and Tasmania's free-throw rate (0.344) is higher than Brisbane's (0.262).
- Tasmania are playing their third game in six days on 21 Oct, while Brisbane has had six days off since 15 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostTasmania JackJumpers under 24.5Estimated chance56%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 20, 03:17

Selected line

187.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 188+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 187.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W99–109

Brisbane Bulletsv

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 3, 2026·NBLOT

W114–70

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Brisbane Bullets

Feb 6, 2026·NBL

L81–83

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Brisbane Bullets

Nov 8, 2025·NBL

W82–84

Brisbane Bulletsv

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 4, 2025·NBL

W95–86

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Brisbane Bullets

Dec 29, 2024·NBL

W95–92

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Brisbane Bullets

Nov 15, 2024·NBL

W79–87

Brisbane Bulletsv

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 26, 2024·NBL

L80–77

Brisbane Bulletsv

Tasmania JackJumpers

Jan 10, 2024·NBL

W87–85

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Brisbane Bullets

Nov 4, 2023·NBL

L90–87

Brisbane Bulletsv

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 29, 2023·NBL

176.2Avg total points

8.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Tasmania JackJumpers

5–271%

Brisbane Bullets

3–350%

Recent Form

Tasmania JackJumpers

7W 8L · last 15

vs New Zealand Breakers98–92 Oct 18NBL

vs Adelaide88–94 Oct 16NBL

at Illawarra Hawks122–112 Oct 9NBL

at Brisbane Bullets109–99 OTOct 3NBL

vs Melbourne United84–82 Oct 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans87–93 Sep 23NBL

vs South East Melbourne96–91 Sep 21NBL

at Melbourne United68–82 Mar 5NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks70–103 Feb 18NBL

at South East Melbourne104–120 Feb 14NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets114–70 Feb 6NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers91–89 Feb 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans93–96 OTJan 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks91–101 Jan 24NBL

at Sydney94–105 Jan 22NBL

Brisbane Bullets

3W 12L · last 15

vs South East Melbourne115–105 Oct 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans91–97 Oct 8NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers99–109 OTOct 3NBL

at Sydney78–93 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks103–95 Sep 25NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers88–85 Sep 22NBL

vs Sydney77–117 Feb 20NBL

at Perth75–94 Feb 13NBL

vs Cairns Taipans72–81 Feb 8NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers70–114 Feb 6NBL

vs Adelaide74–107 Jan 28NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks75–113 Jan 26NBL

at Melbourne United66–98 Jan 21NBL

at Sydney80–95 Jan 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans83–88 Jan 12NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tasmania JackJumpers

Stats

3–2

Brisbane Bullets

14 games

Tasmania JackJumpers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %14/13 games+1.0pp

52.5%

+1.0pp

53.5%

3-point %14/13 games+4.8pp

33.2%

+4.8pp

28.4%

Free-throw %14/13 games+11.8pp

77.5%

+11.8pp

65.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/13 games1.4pp apart

29.9%

1.4pp apart

31.3%

Free throws per shot14/13 games8.2pp apart

34.4%

8.2pp apart

26.2%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game14/13 games+1.9

34.1

+1.9

36.0

Turnovers per game2.3 fewer

10.6

2.3 fewer

12.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.