B LeagueFinished

Predictions graded

Saga66Nagasaki84

Wed 21 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Points by period: Saga and Nagasaki.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Saga	20	15	17	14
Nagasaki	24	24	17	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two injury-hit teams meet in the Kyushu derby, with Saga 1-8 and Nagasaki 3-6 in the B League.

Nagasaki are the likelier winners, something like 81-77, though both rotations are unsettled. Prices are quoted across the card, but none stands out at our numbers, and the evidence is too thin to back one.

Context

Dudzinski is out for roughly two months and Saga's other frontcourt regulars are uncertain, while Mitchell remains on Nagasaki's injured list and Baba's involvement is unresolved.

Dudzinski is a power forward in a Saga frontcourt that lost centre Derrick Michael Xzavierro to injury in the same 12 October game against Gunma. Across the two matches without the pair, Saga averaged 24.5 rebounds while opponents took 53.5, and the 18 October trip to Kyoto ended 70-115. The club signed Christopher Olivier on the same day it registered Dudzinski, but a two-month absence removes a set big man for this entire stretch of the schedule. Nagasaki's Jarrell Brantley and Pablo Aguilar give the visitors the deeper inside rotation, and how quickly Olivier absorbs rotation minutes is the open question for the hosts.
- David Dudzinski was hurt in the 12 October game against Gunma and diagnosed with a right knee posterior cruciate ligament injury.
- Saga registered him on the injured list on 20 October and set a two-month return estimate.
Baba is Nagasaki's ace and started on the wing in the 17 October game in Tokyo, where he went down holding his leg. Two days later the club ruled him out against Altiri Chiba for conditioning rather than announcing an injury, and Nagasaki lost 65-82 with Nagasaki-born guard Io Nagano scoring 18 points. Whether Baba can go in Saga decides who takes the main perimeter assignment against Nassir Little, the focal point of the home offence. Without him the wing minutes fall to younger domestic players, and his involvement may only be settled close to tip-off.
- Nagasaki left Yudai Baba out of the 19 October home game against Altiri Chiba to manage his condition.
- Baba started Nagasaki's 17 October game at Tokyo Sunrockers and was seen clutching his leg before leaving the court.
- Nagasaki have not announced a diagnosis or a timetable for him.
Dotson is a Saga starting guard and one of only two reliable scorers left in a rotation stripped by injury. He came off in the first half at Kyoto on 18 October and stayed out as Saga conceded 115 points, with local reporting treating his exit as the moment the game turned. Dudzinski is already on the injured list and Xzavierro has missed the last two games, so Saga's offence would sit almost entirely on Nassir Little if Dotson cannot play. No diagnosis has been published, so his availability may only be decided on match day.
- Damian Dotson left the 18 October game at Kyoto during the first half and did not play again.
- Saga lost that game 70-115, the most points they have conceded this season and their eighth defeat.
- Dotson had 25 points and 10 rebounds in the 16 October home loss to Levanga Hokkaido.
Xzavierro is Saga's Asian-quota centre and had been sharing the interior with Dudzinski before both were hurt in the same 12 October game against Gunma. The club confirmed on 16 October that neither would face Levanga Hokkaido, then repeated the absences at Kyoto two days later and said the pair had stayed behind. With Dudzinski now out for around two months, Saga's only recognised size is the newly signed Christopher Olivier, and the rebounding numbers already dropped sharply in the two games without the original pair. Whether Xzavierro is cleared for the derby remains unresolved.
- Saga said Derrick Michael Xzavierro and David Dudzinski would miss the 16 October game against Levanga Hokkaido because of injuries taken against Gunma.
- The club repeated the absences for the 18 October game at Kyoto and said neither player had travelled while diagnoses were pending.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Saga cover +6.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Saga and 15 for Nagasaki, across seasons and competitions.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostSaga +6.5Estimated chance76.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Nagasaki win in about 61 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNagasakiEstimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Nagasaki are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonNagasakiEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Nagasaki cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Saga and 15 for Nagasaki, across seasons and competitions.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonNagasaki +0.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Nagasaki are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonNagasakiEstimated chance56.2%

Points0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. The 1st quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 40.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Saga 77.3, Nagasaki 80.9. Saga score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Saga are 1-8 in the 2026-27 B League through 18 October, scoring 75.2 and conceding 93.6 per game across nine games.
- Nagasaki are 3-6 and have scored 63 and 65 in their last two games (17 and 19 October), averaging 71.1 for and 80.4 against over nine games.
- Saga shot 50.8% on two-pointers and 31.4% on threes over 15 tracked games; Nagasaki shot 51.5% and 31.2% over the same span.
- Nagasaki won both October 2025 B League meetings with Saga, 85-73 and 76-67, but those rosters have changed.
- Saga placed Dudzinski on the injured list on 20 October with a two-month knee injury, and in the two games without him and Xzavierro they were out-rebounded 53.5 to 24.5.
- Nagasaki played on 19 October (two days' rest) and Saga on 18 October (three days), and Nagasaki's Akil Mitchell remains out with a thigh injury.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSaga over 18.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 21, 03:51

Selected line

159.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 160+ points

10 pp below break-even

Over 1.71 needs 58% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 159.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L85–73

Nagasakiv

Saga

Oct 11, 2025·B L

L76–67

Nagasakiv

Saga

Oct 10, 2025·B L

W68–78

Nagasakiv

Saga

Apr 23, 2025·B L

L86–92

Sagav

Nagasaki

Mar 5, 2025·B L

L78–93

Sagav

Nagasaki

Dec 2, 2024·B L

W80–51

Sagav

Nagasaki

Dec 1, 2024·B L

L73–80

Sagav

Nagasaki

Apr 14, 2024·B L

L61–63

Sagav

Nagasaki

Apr 13, 2024·B L

W71–80

Nagasakiv

Saga

Mar 20, 2024·B L

L81–91

Sagav

Nagasaki

Dec 6, 2023·B L

152.7Avg total points

10.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

B League · B.League - Regular Season · Western Conference

#TeamW–LWin %

Saga

0–0—

Nagasaki

0–0—

Recent Form

Saga

5W 10L · last 15

at Kyoto70–115 Oct 18B L

vs Levanga Hokkaido90–109 Oct 16B L

vs Gunma61–72 Oct 12B L

at Kobe84–77 Oct 10B L

at Alvark74–90 Oct 8B L

vs NeoPhoenix89–93 Oct 4B L

vs NeoPhoenix61–97 Oct 3B L

vs Hiroshima D.61–89 Sep 27B L

vs Hiroshima D.87–100 Sep 25B L

at Akita87–70 May 3B L

at Akita85–72 May 2B L

at Ryukyu91–96 Apr 26B L

at Ryukyu78–92 Apr 25B L

vs Diamond Dolphins71–66 Apr 22B L

at Nagoya Fighting Eagles103–68 Apr 19B L

Nagasaki

8W 7L · last 15

vs Altiri Chiba65–82 Oct 19B L

at Tokyo Sunrockers63–95 Oct 17B L

vs Kobe85–69 Oct 12B L

vs Gunma70–59 Oct 10B L

vs Shinshu74–71 Oct 8B L

at Kyoto65–90 Oct 4B L

at Kyoto76–84 OTOct 3B L

vs Shimane78–85 Sep 25B L

vs Shimane64–89 Sep 23B L

vs Ryukyu72–64 May 26B L

vs Ryukyu66–60 May 24B L

vs Ryukyu69–71 May 23B L

vs Chiba102–93 May 16B L

vs Chiba82–74 May 15B L

vs Alvark96–56 May 8B L

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Saga

Stats

3–2

Nagasaki

Saga leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.7pp

50.8%

+0.7pp

51.5%

3-point %+0.2pp

31.4%

+0.2pp

31.2%

Free-throw %+2.7pp

77.5%

+2.7pp

74.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.7pp apart

36.4%

0.7pp apart

37.1%

Free throws per shot4.7pp apart

24.2%

4.7pp apart

28.9%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.8

30.1

+0.8

30.9

Turnovers per game3.4 fewer

9.9

3.4 fewer

13.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.