KorisliigaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Kouvot Kouvola89KTP Kotka Basket95

Wed 21 Oct 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–759%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Kouvot Kouvola and KTP Kotka Basket.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Kouvot Kouvola	23	23	22	21
KTP Kotka Basket	20	31	22	22

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Unbeaten KTP take a five-game league run to a Kouvot side with one win from five.

KTP's road scoring and shooting say they should win, with the expected 40-minute score around 83-90. The 1.14 on a KTP win and 1.17 on them leading after 40 minutes ask too much; the one price with anything in it is Kouvot at 3.98, a long shot against the form.

Context

KTP's unbeaten start, three-point and free-throw accuracy and 95.3 points per game in three league road wins make them clear favourites, but Kouvot's home scoring and the loss of Hirvonen keep the gap short of decisive.

Hirvonen went down in only KTP's second league game, against Karhu Basket, and a four-week minimum absence takes him past the visit to Kouvola. KTP went into their 14 October game at Salon Vilpas with an unsettled backcourt, where the loss of the Finnish guard was one of several open questions around the rotation. No return date beyond the four-week estimate has been given, so his availability later in the autumn remains unclear.
- Tuomas Hirvonen was injured in KTP's second Korisliiga game of the season, against Karhu Basket.
- KTP expect him to be sidelined for at least four weeks.
- KTP's backcourt was described as carrying several open questions before the 14 October game at Salon Vilpas.
KTP have won every league game so far, adding a win at Salon Vilpas on 14 October and another at Korihait on 17 October to their opening run. The Salo result drew public suggestions that they may be the strongest side in the competition, a jump from the modest expectations around a team that had not been widely fancied. Their visit to Kouvola therefore pits the league's only unbeaten record against a home side still hunting for rhythm, with the unanswered question being how much of the run is strength and how much is an early schedule.
- KTP extended their winning run to five league games with victory at Korihait on 17 October.
- The team has not lost a Korisliiga game this season.
- Their 14 October win at Salon Vilpas was strong enough to prompt talk of them as title contenders.
Kouvot's league season opened badly enough that they were bottom of the table when they hosted Kataja on 16 October, a position shared with the city's hockey team. Two days earlier Lahti Basketball had beaten them 91-83 at home in a lunchtime fixture played before a crowd of 1,850. The Kataja game gave them a first home opportunity to respond, and the visit of unbeaten KTP follows immediately, leaving their current form line uncertain.
- Kouvot and KooKoo were both at the bottom of their leagues on 16 October, with one win between the two Kouvola men's teams.
- Lahti Basketball beat Kouvot 91-83 in a lunchtime game in Lahti on 14 October, in front of 1,850 spectators at Luhta Areena.
Stroud, a reinforcement from last season's Kouvot squad, was confirmed on 11 October as returning to Kouvola, with the club welcoming him back alongside its second team, Kouvot B. Finnish coverage of the signing framed it around the club's fight to avoid relegation and asked whether the addition would be enough to change their season. Whether he is registered for the league side, and whether he features against KTP, is not yet clear.
- Kouvot announced on 11 October that Brandon Stroud is back in Kouvola.
- The announcement placed him with Kouvot's second team, Kouvot B.
- The move was presented as a way for Kouvot to steer clear of relegation trouble.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Kouvot Kouvola

3.98fair 3.38

Market 25.1% · BetBugs 29.5%

+4.4ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. Kouvot Kouvola win in about 30 of 100 games like this, overtime included. KTP's unbeaten league start with a high-scoring road attack (95+ in three away games) against a Kouvot side conceding 86 a game points to the visitors scoring in the low 90s. Kouvot have been better at home, including 95 against Kataja, so a mid-80s home score looks fair, though KTP's edge in shooting and rebounding keeps them clear favourites.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket win in about 70 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance68.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kouvot Kouvola and 15 for KTP Kotka Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonKTP Kotka Basket +0.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kouvot Kouvola and 15 for KTP Kotka Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonKTP Kotka Basket +0.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostKTP Kotka BasketEstimated chance55.2%

Points4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. Kouvot Kouvola score more than 16.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 79 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kouvot Kouvola and 15 for KTP Kotka Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKouvot Kouvola over 16.5Estimated chance79.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kouvot Kouvola and 15 for KTP Kotka Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKTP Kotka Basket over 20.5Estimated chance62.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonKTP Kotka Basket under 23.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kouvot Kouvola and 15 for KTP Kotka Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 41.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket score fewer than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostKTP Kotka Basket under 46.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. Kouvot Kouvola score fewer than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostKouvot Kouvola under 21.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. The 1st half has fewer than 88.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 88.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 44.5Estimated chance55.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kouvot Kouvola 83.4, KTP Kotka Basket 90.2. KTP Kotka Basket score fewer than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- KTP are 5-0 in Korisliiga through 17 October, scoring 92.2 and conceding 76.8 per game (461-384 in five games).
- Kouvot are 1-4 in Korisliiga through 16 October, scoring 84.6 and conceding 86.4 per game (423-432 in five games).
- KTP have scored 95.3 per game in three league road wins (84 at Karhu 3 Oct, 102 at Vilpas 14 Oct, 100 at Korihait 17 Oct).
- Kouvot have scored 83.0 per game in three home league games, including a 95-76 win over Kataja on 16 October.
- KTP shoot better from three (36.9% on 431 attempts) and from the line (78.1%) than Kouvot (33.1% on 462 threes, 75.9% free throws) across 15 tracked games each.
- Head-to-head: Kouvot won 90-80 at home on 20 January 2026, but KTP won 103-76 in Kotka on 14 November 2025; KTP guard Tuomas Hirvonen has been reported out at least four weeks since 13 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostKTP Kotka Basket under 23.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 20, 01:05

Selected line

175.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

47%

Chance of 176+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.82 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 47%.

Move the line main 175.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W90–80

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Jan 20, 2026·KOR

L103–76

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Nov 14, 2025·KOR

W108–84

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Mar 15, 2025·KOR

L84–76

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Feb 8, 2025·KOR

W98–87

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Dec 15, 2024·KOR

W101–107

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Oct 11, 2024·KOROT

L84–78

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Mar 15, 2024·KOR

W89–72

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Feb 14, 2024·KOR

L98–80

KTP Kotka Basketv

Kouvot Kouvola

Dec 12, 2023·KOR

W98–86

Kouvot Kouvolav

KTP Kotka Basket

Oct 10, 2023·KOR

177.9Avg total points

13.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Korisliiga · Korisliiga - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Kouvot Kouvola

1–420%

KTP Kotka Basket

5–0100%

Recent Form

Kouvot Kouvola

7W 8L · last 15

vs Kataja95–76 Oct 16KOR

at Lahti Basketball83–91 Oct 14KOR

vs Kipina80–89 Oct 6KOR

at Honka91–99 Oct 3KOR

vs Karhu Basket74–77 Sep 30KOR

vs UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki85–73 Sep 22SUO

at Honka96–84 Sep 16SUO

vs Kobrat103–99 Mar 18KOR

at Pyrinto Tampere93–78 Mar 14KOR

at Kataja88–112 Mar 10KOR

vs Bisons Loimaa76–74 Mar 5KOR

at Lahti Basketball96–80 Feb 22KOR

at Kobrat83–86 Feb 19KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere63–77 Feb 15KOR

at Bisons Loimaa83–111 Feb 11KOR

KTP Kotka Basket

10W 5L · last 15

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki100–89 Oct 17KOR

at Salon Vilpas102–81 Oct 14KOR

vs Pyrinto Tampere88–72 Oct 9KOR

at Karhu Basket84–78 Oct 3KOR

vs Bisons Loimaa87–64 Sep 29KOR

vs Kipina86–78 Sep 16SUO

at Karhu Basket95–88 Sep 9SUO

vs Helsinki Seagulls70–78 Apr 9KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls79–89 Apr 7KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls72–81 Apr 5KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls87–85 Apr 1KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls83–95 Mar 30KOR

at Helsinki Seagulls92–76 Mar 27KOR

vs Helsinki Seagulls79–77 Mar 24KOR

at UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki77–81 Mar 18KOR

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Kouvot Kouvola

Stats

2–3

KTP Kotka Basket

KTP Kotka Basket leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.6pp

49.9%

+2.6pp

47.3%

3-point %+3.8pp

33.1%

+3.8pp

36.9%

Free-throw %+2.2pp

75.9%

+2.2pp

78.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.6pp apart

35.7%

2.6pp apart

38.3%

Free throws per shot2.6pp apart

27.7%

2.6pp apart

30.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.0

34.9

+2.0

36.9

Turnovers per game0.1 fewer

12.7

0.1 fewer

12.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.