EuroCupFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Buducnost104Neptunas89

Tue 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–1047%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Buducnost and Neptunas.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Buducnost	31	25	24	24
Neptunas	22	20	26	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both teams arrive 1-2 in EuroCup Group C, and the question is whether Buducnost's home control can blunt Neptunas' backcourt of Franke and Fridriksson.

Buducnost should win, by roughly seven points around 88-81, but their 1.18 match price and 1.17 to be ahead after 40 minutes ask too much. The prices worth attention are Buducnost under 91.5 points at 1.84 and Neptunas with a 10.5-point start at 1.79.

Context

Buducnost play 2.1 days after an ABA League win and Neptunas 3.1 days after an LKL win, so both arrive in a normal weekly rhythm. Juwan Morgan is back in Buducnost's rotation after the Slovan game, though his role is not yet established, and Neptunas' scoring load sits heavily on Franke and Fridriksson.

Morgan's return restores a frontcourt body for EuroCup round four, but the Slovan game was settled by half-time, so his appearance came with little competitive pressure. Buducnost had him back on the floor two days before Neptunas arrive, and there is no word yet on how much of the rotation he will carry. The practical gain is depth: Andrej Žakelj can spell his big men in a week that also contains another ABA League fixture. The uncertainty is role rather than availability, since the club has not detailed the reason for his absence or his expected workload.
- Morgan returned to Buducnost's lineup in the 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan Bratislava on 18 October.
- Buducnost had been without him for their previous games before the Slovan match.
Napoli's guards hurt Buducnost in Podgorica: Seljaas scored 23, Spissu created 11 assists and the hosts shipped 93 points on 6 October. Eight days later in Bursa, Tofas led by 15 late before a 10-0 Buducnost run made the final 90-85. The common thread is perimeter defence and slow starts, and Neptunas arrive with exactly that kind of backcourt: Yannick Franke and Elvar Fridriksson each scored 25 in the win over Bourg. The 99-75 win at Wroclaw shows the ceiling; the open question is which defensive version of Žakelj's team appears at Morača.
- Napoli won 93-75 in Podgorica on 6 October, with Seljaas scoring 23 and Spissu recording 11 assists.
- Tofas beat Buducnost 90-85 in Bursa on 14 October after leading by 15 points late in the game.
- Buducnost's only EuroCup win came 99-75 at Slask Wroclaw on 30 September.
Neptunas' first win of the campaign was built on a 32-14 opening quarter and rescued at the end, when Bourg edged ahead 89-86 and the Lithuanians answered with seven straight points. Franke and Fridriksson supplied 50 of the 93 points, which is both the strength and the risk: Buducnost can load up on that backcourt and dare the supporting scorers to beat them. A narrow home loss to Trento in the opener means the Bourg result is the reference point, and the question is whether the same late execution holds on the road against a team that has just kept Slovan to 25 first-half points.
- Neptunas led 32-14 after the first quarter, were pulled back to 51-43 at half-time and 68-67 after three quarters.
- Bourg moved ahead 89-86 in the closing minutes before Neptunas scored the last seven points.
- Yannick Franke scored 25 points with four rebounds and four assists; Elvar Fridriksson also scored 25.
- Neptunas lost their EuroCup opener 76-73 at home to Trento on 29 September.
Slovan were held to seven points in the first quarter and 25 by half-time, so the contest was decided before the break and the second half was a matter of finishing the job. The result ended three straight defeats and restored some calm around the team two days before Neptunas arrive in EuroCup round four. Its value lies in the defensive start rather than the margin: the opposition was limited, so it remains unclear whether the same pressure will trouble a EuroCup backcourt built around Franke and Fridriksson.
- Buducnost beat Slovan Bratislava 82-70 at Morača on 18 October.
- Slovan scored seven points in the first quarter and trailed 49-25 at half-time.
- The win ended a run of three consecutive defeats across the ABA League and EuroCup.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Team PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Buducnost under 91.5

1.84fair 1.66

Market 54.3% · BetBugs 60.2%

+5.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score fewer than 91.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Buducnost have the deeper, more balanced rotation, shoot better from outside and take care of the ball, and at home in Podgorica that should be worth a lead of roughly seven points. Neptunas score well through Franke and Fridriksson but have been loose defensively on the road in Europe, so a high-80s home total against a low-80s road total looks right.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Neptunas +10.5

1.79fair 1.64

Market 55.9% · BetBugs 60.9%

+5.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Neptunas cover +10.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Buducnost have the deeper, more balanced rotation, shoot better from outside and take care of the ball, and at home in Podgorica that should be worth a lead of roughly seven points. Neptunas score well through Franke and Fridriksson but have been loose defensively on the road in Europe, so a high-80s home total against a low-80s road total looks right.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost win in about 71 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBuducnostEstimated chance70.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Buducnost and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonBuducnost +1.5Estimated chance69.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBuducnostEstimated chance68.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBuducnostEstimated chance63.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.79
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Neptunas cover +10.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · HandicaplostNeptunas +10.5Estimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonBuducnostEstimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Neptunas cover +5.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostNeptunas +5.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonBuducnostEstimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Neptunas cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Buducnost and 15 for Neptunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonNeptunas +2.5Estimated chance55.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostBuducnostEstimated chance55.3%

Points2 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score fewer than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostBuducnost under 46.5Estimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostBuducnost under 23.5Estimated chance61.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.84
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score fewer than 91.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · Team PointslostBuducnost under 91.5Estimated chance60.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonBuducnost over 20.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Buducnost score fewer than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostBuducnost under 23.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. The game has fewer than 173.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 173.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 43.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. The 1st half has fewer than 86.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 86.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Buducnost 88.2, Neptunas 81.3. Neptunas score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Buducnost are 1-2 in EuroCup with 259 points scored and 258 allowed over three games (30 Sep–14 Oct 2026): 99-75 at Slask, 75-93 at home to Napoli, 85-90 at Tofas.
- Neptunas are also 1-2 in EuroCup (250 scored, 258 allowed), beating Bourg 93-89 at home on 13 October but conceding 93 at Chemnitz on 7 October and losing 73-76 to Trento.
- Across 15 tracked games Buducnost average 9.8 turnovers and 35.8 rebounds; Neptunas average 13.1 turnovers and 32.8 rebounds, giving the hosts extra possessions.
- Buducnost shoot 37.9% from three (412 attempts) and 79.8% from the line (243 attempts) over 15 games, against Neptunas' 34.8% (359 attempts) and 76.1% (327 attempts).
- Yannick Franke (15.7 points per game this season) and Elvar Fridriksson (12.6) combined for 50 points in the Bourg win, the kind of backcourt that hurt Buducnost in the Napoli and Tofas losses.
- Buducnost come in on 2.1 days rest after an 82-70 ABA League win over Slovan on 18 October in which they led 49-25 at half-time; Neptunas had 3.1 days after an 84-83 LKL win at Jonava on 17 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonNeptunas over 19.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 19, 19:27

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

42%

Chance of 174+ points

12 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 42%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 42%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 58%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

League table

EuroCup · Eurocup - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Buducnost

1–233%

Neptunas

1–233%

Recent Form

Buducnost

9W 6L · last 15

vs Slovan Bratislava82–70 Oct 18ABA

at Tofas85–90 Oct 14EUR

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet91–101 Oct 10ABA

vs Basket Napoli75–93 Oct 6EUR

at KK Krka Novo mesto77–72 Oct 2ABA

at Slask Wroclaw99–75 Sep 30EUR

at Studentski Centar94–84 Jun 4PRV

vs Studentski Centar104–81 Jun 2PRV

at Dubai77–103 May 28ABA

vs Dubai91–90 May 25ABA

at Dubai90–104 May 21ABA

vs Cluj-Napoca112–81 May 12ABA

at Cluj-Napoca90–94 May 8ABA

vs Cluj-Napoca86–73 May 5ABA

at Mornar Bar103–76 Apr 28PRV

Neptunas

8W 7L · last 15

at Jonava84–83 Oct 17LKL

vs JL Bourg93–89 Oct 13EUR

at Rytas77–86 Oct 10LKL

at Chemnitz84–93 Oct 7EUR

vs Nevezis89–62 Oct 3LKL

vs Trento73–76 Sep 29EUR

at Gargzdai78–87 Sep 26LKL

vs Juventus99–84 Sep 23LKL

vs Zalgiris Kaunas69–93 Sep 20LKL

at Lietkabelis91–82 Jun 13LKL

vs Lietkabelis66–63 Jun 11LKL

at Lietkabelis68–80 Jun 8LKL

vs Lietkabelis86–73 Jun 6LKL

at Juventus90–103 Jun 3LKL

vs Juventus102–84 Jun 1LKL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Buducnost

Stats

5–0

Neptunas

Buducnost leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+0.2pp

52.4%

+0.2pp

52.2%

3-point %+3.1pp

37.9%

+3.1pp

34.8%

Free-throw %12/13 games+3.7pp

79.8%

+3.7pp

76.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.4pp apart

34.4%

4.4pp apart

30.0%

Free throws per shot12/13 games11.4pp apart

29.7%

11.4pp apart

41.1%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+3.0

35.8

+3.0

32.8

Turnovers per game3.3 fewer

9.8

3.3 fewer

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.