Premier LeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Al Najma67Al Ahli54

Tue 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–959%

Points by period: Al Najma and Al Ahli.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Al Najma	16	20	15	16
Al Ahli	11	17	18	8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two 2-0 league starts meet, with Al Najma holding the stronger scoring profile and Al Ahli the tighter two-game defensive record.

The expected score after 40 minutes is Al Najma 80.5 points to Al Ahli 74.2 points, making Al Najma the likely winner, though every forecast is LOW confidence. Prices are available, but no price stands out; the evidence is too thin to back one.

Context

Al Najma's added size through Raekwon Rogers is a medium on-court factor, while Al Ahli's 2-0 league start and 64.0 points conceded per game keep the matchup competitive. Rogers' role is not confirmed.

Rogers is a 6ft 8in power forward from Little Rock, Arkansas, who played college basketball at Henderson State and Wagner before turning professional in 2022, with early seasons in Switzerland and Cyprus. He then spent two years in Qatar with Al-Ahly, averaging 19.9 points and 8.6 rebounds last season and earning all-league recognition, and Al Najma signed him for the 2026-27 Bahraini season.
He settled immediately. On 12 October he scored 20 points on nine-of-12 shooting and pulled down nine rebounds in a 75-70 overtime win, giving the home side a proven interior scorer and a reliable half-court option.
He is expected to feature when Al Ahli visit on 20 October; how large his role becomes is not yet established.
- Raekwon Rogers joined Al Najma for the 2026-27 Bahraini Premier League season after two years with Qatar's Al-Ahly.
- The 6ft 8in forward averaged 19.9 points and 8.6 rebounds for Al-Ahly last season and took all-league honours.
- Rogers scored 20 points on nine-of-12 shooting with nine rebounds as Al Najma won 75-70 in overtime on 12 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 79 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonAl Najma +4.5Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAl NajmaEstimated chance69.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonAl NajmaEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · HandicapwonAl Najma -2.5Estimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonAl NajmaEstimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAl Ahli +3.5Estimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonAl NajmaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonAl NajmaEstimated chance55.6%

Points5 of 14 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli score more than 15.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonAl Ahli over 15.5Estimated chance71.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma score more than 75.5 points (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · Team PointslostAl Najma over 75.5Estimated chance70.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostAl Najma over 17.5Estimated chance67.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 41.5 points in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 41.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. The game has more than 148.5 points (overtime included) in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 148.5Estimated chance66.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli score fewer than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonAl Ahli under 20.5Estimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 41.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 41.5Estimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. The 1st half has more than 74.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 74.5Estimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli score more than 71.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · Team PointslostAl Ahli over 71.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli score more than 17.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostAl Ahli over 17.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma score fewer than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Al Najma and 15 for Al Ahli, across seasons and competitions.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonAl Najma under 21.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Ahli score more than 35.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostAl Ahli over 35.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. The 1st quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostOver 37.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Al Najma 80.5, Al Ahli 74.2. Al Najma score more than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Al Najma are 2-0 in the 2026-27 Premier League, scoring 86.0 and conceding 74.0 per game (172-148) through 12 October 2026.
- Al Ahli are also 2-0 this season, scoring 71.5 and conceding 64.0 per game (143-128) through 13 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed Premier League games (Jan-Oct 2026) Al Najma average 82.6 scored and 79.9 conceded.
- Al Ahli's last 15 completed games, including QBL fixtures, average 72.8 scored and 81.0 conceded (Feb-Oct 2026).
- In six box-scored games Al Ahli shoot 51.1% inside the arc, 31.2% from three and 66.1% at the line, with 39.0 rebounds and 14.2 turnovers per game.
- Al Najma won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in 2025-26, most recently 82-79 on 27 January 2026, and none of those four topped 160 combined points.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostAl Najma over 39.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 19, 19:26

Selected line

148.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

66%

Chance of 149+ points

+10 pp above break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 66%.

Move the line main 148.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 66%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 34%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W79–82

Al Ahliv

Al Najma

Jan 27, 2026·PL

L67–63

Al Ahliv

Al Najma

Dec 24, 2025·PL

W77–74

Al Najmav

Al Ahli

Dec 12, 2025·PL

W84–92

Al Ahliv

Al Najma

Apr 15, 2025·PL

W66–75

Al Ahliv

Al Najma

Jan 31, 2025·PL

W99–97

Al Najmav

Al Ahli

Jan 17, 2025·PL

L82–87

Al Najmav

Al Ahli

Mar 14, 2024·PLOT

W76–67

Al Najmav

Al Ahli

Dec 21, 2023·PL

L76–108

Al Najmav

Al Ahli

Mar 22, 2023·PL

L93–83

Al Ahliv

Al Najma

Sep 10, 2022·PL

162.7Avg total points

8.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Premier League · Premier League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Al Najma

2–0100%

Al Ahli

2–0100%

Recent Form

Al Najma

8W 7L · last 15

vs Al Ittihad75–70 OTOct 12PL

at Nuwaidrad97–78 Oct 4PL

vs Al Manama71–75 Apr 4PL

at Al Manama92–95 OTApr 1PL

vs Al Manama76–80 Mar 29PL

at Al Manama78–76 Mar 26PL

vs Nuwaidrad82–88 Feb 22PL

at Al Hala107–94 Feb 18PL

vs Al Muharraq87–102 Feb 13PL

vs Al Manama86–71 Feb 7PL

at Al Ahli82–79 Jan 27PL

at Al Muharraq69–85 Jan 24PL

vs Al Manama58–62 Jan 19PL

vs Al Hala90–67 Jan 14PL

at Nuwaidrad89–77 Jan 9PL

Al Ahli

5W 10L · last 15

vs Nuwaidrad77–69 Oct 13PL

vs Al Gharafa68–76 Oct 13QBL

at Al Ittihad66–59 Oct 6PL

at Al Muharraq63–102 Apr 1PL

vs Al Sadd73–80 Mar 30QBL

vs Al Muharraq69–96 Mar 29PL

vs Al-Rayyan88–93 Mar 28QBL

at Al Muharraq73–90 Mar 26PL

at Al-Rayyan69–93 Mar 23QBL

vs Al Hala68–79 Feb 23PL

at Al Muharraq60–83 Feb 20PL

at Al Manama78–67 Feb 12PL

vs Al Ittihad76–81 Feb 6PL

vs Nuwaidrad79–74 Feb 5PL

at Al Wakrah85–73 Feb 2QBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Al Najma

0 games

Stats

0–0

Al Ahli

6 games

Not enough shared stats for a comparison.

Shooting· 0–0

2-point %—

–

—

51.1%

3-point %—

–

—

31.2%

Free-throw %—

–

—

66.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s—

–

—

32.2%

Free throws per shot—

–

—

28.9%

Possession· 0–0

Rebounds per game—

–

—

39.0

Turnovers per game—

–

—

14.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.