B LeagueFinished

Predictions graded

Shinshu77Diamond Dolphins92

Mon 19 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Points by period: Shinshu and Diamond Dolphins.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Shinshu	18	18	24	17
Diamond Dolphins	13	32	25	22

Quick Take

Pre-match view

An unbeaten Diamond Dolphins side, five wins all on the road with no opponent reaching 81 points, meets a Shinshu team on four straight defeats.

The expected score lands near 80-89 in the visitors' favour, so Diamond Dolphins to win is the plain read. The one price checked, under 168.5 combined points at 1.82, asks for a 50-50 call on something nearer 47% — nothing worth backing there.

Context

The form contrast is real and the rest gap is large, with Shinshu on 2.2 days since 17 October and Diamond Dolphins on 8.2 days since 11 October. The five-game winning run is a small, sharply better stretch than the visitors' previous ten league games, and no availability news is established.

Shinshu's slide began with the 71-74 home defeat by Nagasaki on 8 October, continued with the 76-95 loss at Shiga in which they never led, and reached four with the 95-102 defeat at Akita, the most points they have conceded in eight league games. Mike Daum, Takatoshi Furukawa, Marcus Lee, Kyosuke Hoshino and Kevon Harris have started together in every game, so the run has come without a change to the first unit. Nagoya have not conceded more than 80 points in five wins, which makes Shinshu's half-court execution the central question. Whether the staff alters the rotation for a third game in five days is unclear.
- Akita beat Shinshu 102-95 on 17 October, a fourth consecutive defeat that left Shinshu 2-6.
- Shinshu lost 76-95 at Shiga on 12 October, a game in which they never held the lead.
- Shinshu lost 71-74 at home to Nagasaki on 8 October.
The run started with 93-63 and 90-78 wins at Kawasaki, continued with 85-73 and 90-80 at Shimane and reached five with the 90-78 win at Ibaraki. Takumi Saito had 21 points and 10 assists at Ibaraki, Scott Eatherton scored 20 while making all seven of his two-point attempts and Aaron Henry added 19. All five games were on the road under new head coach Roy Rana, and the defensive numbers have held regardless of the venue. Shinshu's four-game losing run is the opposite backdrop, and the open question is whether Nagoya's half-court defence holds in a third game in five days.
- Nagoya won 90-78 at Ibaraki on 11 October for a fifth successive victory.
- They opened with 93-63 and 90-78 wins at Kawasaki on 26 and 27 September.
- They then won 85-73 and 90-80 at Shimane on 3 and 4 October.
- No opponent has reached 81 points against them in those five games.
Shinshu played at Akita on 17 October, host Nagoya on 19 October, host Tokyo Sun Rockers on 21 October and then travel to Utsunomiya on 24 October, so the staff have four games in eight days to spread across a 12-man group. Nagoya's sequence is the Nagano trip, a 21 October game at Utsunomiya and a home opener against Shiga on 30 October, meaning their first six league fixtures are all away from Nagoya. That scheduling shape is the reason both coaches may shorten or extend bench minutes rather than any available form guide. No club has published a rest plan.
- Shinshu's next home fixture after this game is against Tokyo Sun Rockers on 21 October.
- Nagoya are listed as Utsunomiya's opponents on 21 October.
- Shinshu travel to Utsunomiya on 24 October.
- Nagoya's first home game of the season is set for 30 October against Shiga.
Shinshu spent three seasons outside the top division before returning for 2026-27, and the rebuild was substantial: seven new players arrived, including 38-year-old Takatoshi Furukawa and import Kevon Harris, while Judd Flavell began his first season as head coach. The first B.Premier win came 99-81 against Toyama on 27 September, when Harris scored 30 and Flavell credited second-chance points. Since then the new group has lost four in a row and sits 2-6, so the visit of an unbeaten Nagoya side tests how quickly the new pieces can be integrated. Whether Flavell changes the starting unit for the first time is unresolved.
- Shinshu returned to the top league after three seasons away and won their first B.Premier game 99-81 against Toyama on 27 September.
- Seven players joined in the summer and the squad's average height rose to 194.6cm.
- Judd Flavell took charge for his first season and pointed to second-chance points as the base of that first win.
- Kevon Harris, a new import, scored 30 points in that 99-81 win.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins win in about 76 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance76.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance74.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance68.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Shinshu and 15 for Diamond Dolphins, across seasons and competitions.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonDiamond Dolphins +0.5Estimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance62.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonDiamond DolphinsEstimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins cover -1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Shinshu and 15 for Diamond Dolphins, across seasons and competitions.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonDiamond Dolphins -1.5Estimated chance57.4%

Points3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Diamond Dolphins score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonDiamond Dolphins over 21.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. The 3rd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 40.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. Shinshu score more than 78.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · Team PointslostShinshu over 78.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Shinshu 80.0, Diamond Dolphins 89.1. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Shinshu are 2-6 in the B League this season and have lost four straight from 8-17 October, conceding 88.5 points per game in that run.
- Nagoya are 5-0 in the B League this season, all away, scoring 89.6 and conceding 74.4 per game from 26 September to 11 October; no opponent reached 81 points.
- In eight B League games this season Shinshu average 84.3 points scored and 87.9 conceded; in three home games they average 88.3 scored and 87.7 conceded.
- Nagoya's previous 10 B League games in 2025-26 averaged 74.1 scored and 83.9 conceded, showing the current five-game run is a small, sharply better sample.
- Shinshu have had 2.2 days of rest since 17 October, while Nagoya have had 8.2 days since 11 October.
- Across 15 box-scored games Shinshu shoot 52.4% on two-pointers and 79.3% from the free-throw line but average 15.1 turnovers; Nagoya shoot 50.2% on two-pointers with 11.9 turnovers.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 41.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 19, 03:12

Selected line

168.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 169+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 168.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L75–101

Shinshuv

Diamond Dolphins

Oct 22, 2023·B L

L64–72

Shinshuv

Diamond Dolphins

Oct 21, 2023·B L

W58–82

Diamond Dolphinsv Shinshu

Shinshu

Jan 29, 2023·B L

L104–96

Diamond Dolphinsv Shinshu

Shinshu

Jan 28, 2023·B LOT

L64–86

Shinshuv

Diamond Dolphins

Apr 27, 2022·B L

L81–76

Diamond Dolphinsv Shinshu

Shinshu

Mar 20, 2022·B L

L82–65

Diamond Dolphinsv Shinshu

Shinshu

Mar 19, 2022·B L

W87–80

Shinshuv

Diamond Dolphins

Feb 10, 2021·B L

L65–61

Diamond Dolphinsv Shinshu

Shinshu

Oct 28, 2020·B L

155.4Avg total points

13.4Avg margin

9meetings

League table

B League · B.League - Regular Season · Western Conference

#TeamW–LWin %

Shinshu

0–0—

Diamond Dolphins

0–0—

Recent Form

Shinshu

4W 11L · last 15

at Akita95–102 Oct 17B L

at Shiga76–95 Oct 12B L

vs NeoPhoenix81–83 Oct 10B L

at Nagasaki71–74 Oct 8B L

at Yokohama89–84 Oct 4B L

at Yokohama78–85 Oct 3B L

vs Toyama99–81 Sep 27B L

vs Toyama85–99 Sep 26B L

vs Yokohama Excellence84–100 May 17B2.

vs Yokohama Excellence88–90 May 16B2.

vs Fukushima73–96 May 11B2.

vs Fukushima82–74 May 10B2.

vs Fukushima83–90 May 9B2.

vs Fukui90–89 May 4B2.

vs Fukui82–88 May 3B2.

Diamond Dolphins

7W 8L · last 15

at Ibaraki Robots90–78 Oct 11B L

at Shimane90–80 Oct 4B L

at Shimane85–73 Oct 3B L

at Brave Thunders90–78 Sep 27B L

at Brave Thunders93–63 Sep 26B L

at Ryukyu74–90 May 16B L

at Ryukyu65–85 May 15B L

at Utsunomiya Brex75–66 May 10B L

at Utsunomiya Brex89–82 May 9B L

at NeoPhoenix79–93 May 3B L

at NeoPhoenix66–89 May 2B L

vs Utsunomiya Brex74–90 Apr 26B L

vs Utsunomiya Brex69–87 Apr 25B L

at Saga66–71 Apr 22B L

vs Shiga84–86 Apr 19B L

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Shinshu

Stats

3–2

Diamond Dolphins

Shinshu leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+2.2pp

52.4%

+2.2pp

50.2%

3-point %+0.2pp

29.9%

+0.2pp

30.1%

Free-throw %+8.2pp

79.3%

+8.2pp

71.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.9pp apart

34.6%

2.9pp apart

31.7%

Free throws per shot9.3pp apart

33.6%

9.3pp apart

24.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+4.6

37.3

+4.6

32.7

Turnovers per game3.2 fewer

15.1

3.2 fewer

11.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.