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Predictions graded

Nagasaki65Altiri Chiba82

Mon 19 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Nagasaki and Altiri Chiba.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Nagasaki	17	16	21	11
Altiri Chiba	15	27	18	22

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Nagasaki's rebuilt frontcourt against Chiba's rebounding edge is the tension, and the home side's better defensive numbers point to a narrow win, around 78-75 after 40 minutes.

The first-quarter under 40.5 combined points at 1.81 is the one potential value. Nagasaki at 1.44 to win and 1.46 to be ahead after 40 minutes do not justify support, nor does Nagasaki giving 4.5 points at 1.73 or Chiba over 76.5 points at 1.68.

Context

Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell is out with a hamstring strain, Chiba's Kai Sotto has missed two straight B.League games and is a game-day call, and Nagasaki have played three games in six days across the B.League and EASL. Those frontcourt and rotation conditions shape the matchup.

Mitchell started Nagasaki's opening game and came off after four minutes, and the club confirmed the hamstring damage a week later. Four weeks from the 29 September registration points to a return in late October, so the Chiba game falls inside the expected absence. Nagasaki have had to reshape their frontcourt rotation as a result, using a replacement import alongside their remaining big men rather than the pairing they planned in pre-season. Monday's game therefore starts with the same hole in the paint that has shaped their first month.
- Nagasaki registered Akil Mitchell on the B.League injury list on 29 September, six days after he was hurt against Shimane.
- The diagnosis was a right biceps femoris strain, with a recovery period of around four weeks.
- He was not entered for the games on 8, 10, 12 and 17 October, and did not travel with the team for the Tokyo fixture.
Sotto has been listed as unavailable on match day twice in eight days, with the club citing condition rather than a specific injury. Chiba have already had to juggle their import and frontcourt minutes this month, and a third consecutive absence would leave them smaller inside against a Nagasaki team that is itself missing its starting import big. The club has settled his status only on game day in each of the last two matches, so his availability may not be known until shortly before tip-off.
- Chiba announced on 11 October that Kai Sotto would not be entered for the Toyama game because of poor condition.
- The same notice was issued before the 17 October Hiroshima game, when he travelled with the squad but did not play.
Aguilar's arrival was the club's answer to losing its starting import big days earlier, and he has been part of the rotation through a stretch of B.Premier and East Asia Super League games. He is a familiar face in Nagasaki, but the signing came with the season already under way, so his integration and condition are still being managed. For the Chiba game the practical effect is a rebuilt frontcourt rather than the one Nagasaki planned around in pre-season.
- Nagasaki completed the signing of Pablo Aguilar on 2 October, framing it as cover for the injured Mitchell.
- Aguilar is back at the club after four seasons away and said he wants to help the team and enjoy basketball with Nagasaki's fans again.
- The club's general manager said the addition should help Nagasaki cope on the boards.
Chiba were within nine at the first break and never closed the gap, with Lemanis highlighting both the early defensive lapses and 26 Hiroshima free throws. He described the current stretch as a difficult period and said the only route out is collective improvement, while Kurokawa spoke about a squad meeting called after the Toyama loss. Monday's game tests whether Chiba can avoid the slow starts and foul trouble that have repeatedly put them behind, against a Nagasaki side whose coach Dean Vickerman is in his first season.
- Hiroshima beat Chiba 89-71 on 17 October after leading 30-21 at the end of the first quarter.
- Andre Lemanis said the points conceded in the first quarter were the main problem and that giving away 26 free throws has to improve.
- Kotetsu Kurokawa said the players talked as a group after the Toyama defeat and have been pulling in one direction since.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 40.5

1.81fair 1.63

Market 55.2% · BetBugs 61.3%

+6.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. The 1st quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this. Both teams are leaking points and neither is scoring efficiently, but Chiba's road scoring has been notably lower (69 per game) while Nagasaki have been the steadier defensive side at home, so a close, moderately low-scoring home win is the central estimate. Nagasaki's reshaped frontcourt without Mitchell and Chiba's rebounding and three-point edge keep the margin small.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNagasakiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Altiri Chiba cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Nagasaki and 15 for Altiri Chiba, across seasons and competitions.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostAltiri Chiba +2.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Altiri Chiba cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Nagasaki and 15 for Altiri Chiba, across seasons and competitions.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAltiri Chiba +2.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostNagasakiEstimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostNagasakiEstimated chance55.3%

Points7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.81
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. The 1st quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 40.5Estimated chance61.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. The 1st half has fewer than 79.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 79.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. The game has fewer than 158.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 158.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki score fewer than 81.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · Team PointswonNagasaki under 81.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki score fewer than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonNagasaki under 20.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Nagasaki score fewer than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonNagasaki under 40.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Nagasaki 78.5, Altiri Chiba 75.3. Altiri Chiba score fewer than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Nagasaki's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 71.9 points scored and 80.3 conceded, a clear drop from the 82.9 they averaged in their final seven games of 2025-26 (May 2026).
- Chiba's eight 2026-27 B.League games average 77.8 scored and 86.6 conceded; in three road games they averaged 69.0 scored and 82.7 conceded (Oct 2026).
- Nagasaki at home this B.League season (five games through 12 Oct 2026) average 74.2 scored and 74.6 conceded, though Shimane scored 85 and 89 there in late September.
- Over 15 box-scored games Chiba shoot 35.2% from three and 63.7% from the line, while Nagasaki shoot 31.1% from three and 75.2% from the line; Chiba also rebound better, 34.1 to 30.7 per game.
- Nagasaki's starting import big Akil Mitchell has been out since a 29 September hamstring registration (about four weeks), with replacement Pablo Aguilar averaging 22.1 minutes and 7.0 points in four games.
- The only two meetings on record, both October 2025 in Chiba, were a 102-68 Nagasaki win and a 97-94 Chiba win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonAltiri Chiba under 19.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 19, 03:12

Selected line

158.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

41%

Chance of 159+ points

13 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 41%.

Move the line main 158.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 59%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W68–102

Altiri Chibav

Nagasaki

Oct 5, 2025·B L

L97–94

Altiri Chibav

Nagasaki

Oct 4, 2025·B L

180.5Avg total points

18.5Avg margin

2meetings

League table

B League · B.League - Regular Season · Western Conference

#TeamW–LWin %

Nagasaki

0–0—

Altiri Chiba

0–0—

Recent Form

Nagasaki

9W 6L · last 15

at Tokyo Sunrockers63–95 Oct 17B L

vs Kobe85–69 Oct 12B L

vs Gunma70–59 Oct 10B L

vs Shinshu74–71 Oct 8B L

at Kyoto65–90 Oct 4B L

at Kyoto76–84 OTOct 3B L

vs Shimane78–85 Sep 25B L

vs Shimane64–89 Sep 23B L

vs Ryukyu72–64 May 26B L

vs Ryukyu66–60 May 24B L

vs Ryukyu69–71 May 23B L

vs Chiba102–93 May 16B L

vs Chiba82–74 May 15B L

vs Alvark96–56 May 8B L

vs Alvark93–78 May 7B L

Altiri Chiba

5W 10L · last 15

vs Hiroshima D.71–89 Oct 17B L

vs Toyama74–94 Oct 11B L

vs Osaka97–90 Oct 9B L

at Sendai74–81 Oct 7B L

vs Brave Thunders74–82 Oct 4B L

vs Brave Thunders99–90 Oct 3B L

at Gunma59–91 Sep 26B L

at Gunma74–76 Sep 24B L

at Chiba87–96 May 3B L

at Chiba81–98 May 2B L

at Sun Rockers Shibuya87–85 Apr 26B L

at Sun Rockers Shibuya69–79 Apr 25B L

vs Ibaraki Robots66–79 Apr 22B L

vs Akita75–74 Apr 19B L

vs Akita83–65 Apr 18B L

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Nagasaki

Stats

3–2

Altiri Chiba

Nagasaki leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.0pp

53.6%

+1.0pp

52.6%

3-point %+4.1pp

31.1%

+4.1pp

35.2%

Free-throw %+11.5pp

75.2%

+11.5pp

63.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.3pp apart

35.4%

0.3pp apart

35.7%

Free throws per shot8.1pp apart

29.7%

8.1pp apart

21.6%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.4

30.7

+3.4

34.1

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

13.0

0.5 fewer

13.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.