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Predictions graded

Esenler Erokspor73Anadolu Efes70

Mon 19 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–1041%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Esenler Erokspor and Anadolu Efes.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Esenler Erokspor	24	19	9	21
Anadolu Efes	18	25	15	12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Efes are 3-0 in the league but without Mike James and with P.J.

Dozier's back problem unresolved, against an Erokspor side on four straight wins that beat them 90-79 in January. Efes still look the likelier winners, ahead 88.0-83.7 after 40 minutes. The one price worth taking is more than 168.5 combined points at 1.81; Efes under 86.5 points at 1.67 is not.

Context

James is confirmed out for months after Achilles surgery, Dozier left the Kaunas game with a back problem, and Efes have roughly three days between games against Erokspor's five.

Efes rebuilt their backcourt last summer after Shane Larkin and Rodrigue Beaubois left, with Mike James the headline of seven arrivals and Pablo Laso's first squad of his own making. James scored 11 points in the 95-81 opening-night win over Beşiktaş, then went down with an Achilles injury in Belgrade on 1 October. Repair surgery followed on 2 October and the club's doctor projected seven to nine months out, which rules him out of Monday's game entirely. Efes answered by signing Cameron Payne within days, and Matthew Strazel, Jordan Loyd and Dario Šarić now share the shot creation. Erokspor will not see James at all, so the uncertainty is not his availability but how much of Efes's late-game structure survives without him.
- Mike James went down with an Achilles tendon injury in the EuroLeague game at Crvena Zvezda on 1 October, which Efes lost 77-72.
- The operation was performed by Kerem Ülkü, and club doctor Uğur Diliçıkık projected an absence of seven to nine months.
- James sat in the stands for the 85-76 league win over Yukatel Denizli on 11 October.
- James was one of seven summer arrivals as Efes rebuilt after Shane Larkin's departure.
Dozier came off in the third quarter in Kaunas and Efes finished the 85-70 win without him, with Collin Malcolm and Matthew Strazel taking on the perimeter scoring. James is already out for months, so the wing is the thinnest part of Laso's rotation: Santi Yusta and Fatts Russell are the alternatives, and Laso had already shortened his bench in Kaunas. A back problem treated as a precaution would leave Dozier available for Monday; anything more would push extra minutes onto Malcolm against an Erokspor side whose scoring runs through Errick McCollum, Mike Davis Jr and the Kevin Yebo-Amadou Sow pairing. His status is likely to be settled close to tip-off.
- P.J. Dozier left Efes's 85-70 win at Žalgiris Kaunas in the third quarter on 16 October and did not come back.
- The withdrawal was put down to a back injury and described as precautionary.
Payne arrived within days of James's surgery and was playing EuroLeague minutes by 9 October, when he had 12 points in 14 minutes. Three games on he is Efes's main ball-handler: 18 points in the 93-101 home loss to Bayern Munich, then 16 in the 85-70 win at Žalgiris Kaunas, with Matthew Strazel moved to lead the second unit. That shapes Monday directly, because Erokspor's guards have to defend a pick-and-roll initiator who shoots off the dribble and plays at pace. Efes have little cover behind him beyond Strazel and Fatts Russell, so his minutes are the part of the rotation most likely to stay heavy.
- Cameron Payne joined Efes in early October and debuted in the EuroLeague on 9 October with 12 points in 14 minutes.
- He scored 18 points in the 93-101 home loss to Bayern Munich on 14 October and 16 in the 85-70 win at Žalgiris Kaunas on 16 October.
- Payne has taken the primary ball-handling role, with Matthew Strazel running the second unit.
Efes have banked every league game so far: 95-81 over Beşiktaş on opening night, then 85-76 over Yukatel Denizli on 11 October, with James unavailable and in the stands. Europe has gone the other way, with a 2-4 record that includes a 93-101 home defeat by Bayern Munich and an 89-66 loss to Olympiacos. The Kaunas win was Efes's best European performance of the season: 19 points from Strazel, 16 from Payne, 15 from Malcolm and a double-double from Šarić, with Laso using a shorter rotation. Monday asks whether he repeats that short rotation in the league three days later, or spreads the minutes against an opponent that has started the season well.
- Efes beat Yukatel Denizli 85-76 on 11 October for a third win in three league games.
- They lost 93-101 at home to Bayern Munich on 14 October and won 85-70 at Žalgiris Kaunas on 16 October.
- Efes opened the league with a 95-81 win over Beşiktaş on 27 September.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 168.5

1.81fair 1.68

Market 55.2% · BetBugs 59.5%

+4.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. The game has more than 168.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this. Efes have the stronger roster and a 3-0 league start, and their two-point and free-throw accuracy should give them a small road win even without James. Erokspor are scoring well at home and have had more rest, so the margin should stay narrow.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Esenler Erokspor cover +5.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostEsenler Erokspor +5.5Estimated chance71.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes win in about 63 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnadolu EfesEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonAnadolu Efes +1.5Estimated chance63.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostAnadolu EfesEstimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostAnadolu EfesEstimated chance57.7%

Points6 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 79 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostAnadolu Efes over 17.5Estimated chance79.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Esenler Erokspor score more than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonEsenler Erokspor over 18.5Estimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Esenler Erokspor score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor over 19.5Estimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.81
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. The game has more than 168.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 168.5Estimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonAnadolu Efes over 42.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes score more than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · Team PointslostAnadolu Efes over 86.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 44.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Esenler Erokspor score more than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonEsenler Erokspor over 40.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Esenler Erokspor score more than 82.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor over 82.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. The 1st half has more than 84.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 84.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. Anadolu Efes score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonAnadolu Efes over 21.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esenler Erokspor 83.7, Anadolu Efes 88.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esenler Erokspor and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- Efes are 3-0 in the BSL through 11 October, averaging 88.3 points scored and 78.7 conceded.
- Erokspor are 2-1 in the BSL through 10 October, averaging 87.3 scored and 84.7 conceded, and have won four straight across league and FIBA Europe Cup play.
- Erokspor beat Efes 90-79 in Istanbul on 17 January 2026, while Efes won the reverse fixture 90-76 on 26 September 2025.
- Efes are without Mike James, who had Achilles surgery on 2 October and is expected to miss seven to nine months; Cameron Payne scored 18 on 14 October and 16 on 16 October.
- Efes had about three days since their 85-70 win at Zalgiris on 16 October, while Erokspor had five days after their 94-62 win at Rilski Sportist on 14 October.
- In box-scored games Efes shoot 57.1% on two-pointers and 84.5% on free throws over eight games, against Erokspor's 54.3% and 79.1% over 15 games; rebounds are nearly level at 31.3 vs 30.9.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 15:13

Selected line

168.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

60%

Chance of 169+ points

+4 pp above break-even

Over 1.81 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 60%.

Move the line main 168.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 60%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W90–79

Esenler Eroksporv

Anadolu Efes

Jan 17, 2026·BAS

L90–76

Anadolu Efesv

Esenler Erokspor

Sep 26, 2025·BAS

167.5Avg total points

12.5Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Basketbol Süper Ligi · Super Lig - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Esenler Erokspor

2–167%

Anadolu Efes

3–0100%

Recent Form

Esenler Erokspor

8W 7L · last 15

at Rilski Sportist94–62 Oct 14FIB

at Tofas87–79 Oct 10BAS

vs Gence92–63 Oct 7FIB

vs Petkim Spor96–87 Oct 3BAS

at Korfez Basket79–88 Sep 28BAS

vs Fenerbahce73–96 May 29BAS

at Fenerbahce72–94 May 27BAS

at Merkezefendi70–69 May 10BAS

vs Bursaspor82–83 May 2BAS

at Karsiyaka67–68 Apr 26BAS

at Buyukcekmece79–67 Apr 19BAS

at Turk Telekom84–93 Apr 15BAS

vs Mersin SK88–78 Apr 11BAS

vs Galatasaray85–86 Mar 28BAS

at Fenerbahce94–88 Mar 22BAS

Anadolu Efes

9W 6L · last 15

at Zalgiris Kaunas85–70 Oct 16EUR

vs Bayern93–101 Oct 14EUR

vs Denizli Basket85–76 Oct 11BAS

at Olympiacos66–89 Oct 9EUR

at Bordo Bandirma85–79 Oct 4BAS

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet72–77 Oct 1EUR

vs Real Madrid94–84 Sep 29EUR

vs Besiktas95–81 Sep 27BAS

at Barcelona82–89 Sep 24EUR

at Lokomotiv Kuban88–82 Sep 20VTB

vs Unics Kazan91–79 Sep 19VTB

at Zenit Petersburg100–76 Sep 18VTB

vs Fenerbahce93–102 OTJun 7BAS

vs Fenerbahce102–93 Jun 5BAS

at Fenerbahce72–73 Jun 3BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Esenler Erokspor

Stats

2–3

Anadolu Efes

12 games

Anadolu Efes leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.8pp

54.3%

+2.8pp

57.1%

3-point %+3.7pp

33.8%

+3.7pp

30.1%

Free-throw %15/8 games+5.4pp

79.1%

+5.4pp

84.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s6.1pp apart

33.0%

6.1pp apart

26.9%

Free throws per shot15/8 games0.7pp apart

36.3%

0.7pp apart

37.0%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.4

30.9

+0.4

31.3

Turnovers per game0.8 fewer

12.6

0.8 fewer

13.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.