Liga ACBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Valencia116Murcia93

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–475%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Valencia and Murcia.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Valencia	25	33	28	30
Murcia	14	22	24	33

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Valencia carry a three-game losing run into a home game against a Murcia side that has won three of their last five league visits to Valencia.

The hosts should still win, with a 40-minute score around 94-85. Murcia to score under 41.5 points in the first quarter at 1.91 is worth backing; over 181.5 combined points at 1.90 is not.

Context

Valencia play a fourth game in eight days after three straight defeats and have just cut centre Yankuba Sima, while Murcia lose Juani Marcos to a confirmed calf micro-tear for several weeks and expect Kaiser Gates back into the squad.

Marcos arrived from Barça in the summer on a deal to 2028 and was one of Murcia's headline additions, installed in the backcourt from the opening rounds. The micro-tear in his left soleus, confirmed on 16 October, rules him out for several weeks, and Sito Alonso called the absence a period that is not small. Souley Boum is back, having returned in the Champions League win at Bamberg on 14 October after sitting out the home defeat to La Laguna Tenerife, but Murcia lose their main creator against a Valencia side Alonso himself calls very dynamic. The open question is who runs the offence late in the game, with Dylan Ennis and Jonah Radebaugh the alternatives, and no return date has been set.
- Juani Marcos has a micro-tear in his left soleus, an injury the club confirmed on 16 October.
- Sito Alonso said the guard would be out for a period that is not small.
- Marcos joined from Barça in the summer and signed until 2028.
- Souley Boum returned for the Champions League win at Bamberg on 14 October after missing the home defeat to La Laguna Tenerife.
Olympiacos trailed 62-34 early in the third quarter at the Roig Arena on 13 October and won 97-102 in overtime, matching the largest comeback in EuroLeague history, with former Valencia guard Jean Montero driving it. Maccabi Tel Aviv then won 91-88 in the same arena two nights later, and the run had started with an 86-89 league loss at Barcelona on 11 October in which Valencia erased a 13-point gap and still fell short. Albert's answer was that his side compete and reach the closing minutes with chances but cannot land the final blow. Murcia visit a rebuilt team that has been in every game of the run and won none of them, so the question is whether the pattern is a new group still learning or a deeper late-game problem.
- Valencia led Olympiacos 62-34 early in the third quarter on 13 October and lost 97-102 in overtime at the Roig Arena.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won 91-88 at the Roig Arena on 15 October, after Valencia had lost 86-89 at Barcelona in the league on 11 October.
- Xavi Albert said his team are taking games to the end and creating winning chances but are failing to finish them off.
Valencia province woke to red warnings for rain on 18 October, several football fixtures in the region were called off, and the Roig Arena was preparing to stage two games in the alert, the women's meeting with Baxi Ferrol and then Murcia. Murcia travelled on the Saturday and their squad was in the city by mid-morning, while Valencia Basket's preview kept the tip at 17:00 local. A Tuesday slot had been raised as a fallback before the morning confirmation that the game would be played. The fixture itself is unaffected, but the alert still frames the day around it, from travel and attendance to the risk of a late escalation in the warnings.
- Red warnings for heavy rain covered parts of Valencia and Alicante provinces on 18 October, with the region of Murcia also under alerts.
- Murcia's squad was already in Valencia on the morning of the game.
- Valencia Basket's preview and Murcia's matchday post both had the tip at 17:00 local time at the Roig Arena.
- A Tuesday date had been floated as a fallback had the game been called off.
Sima arrived from Unicaja in 2025 and collected a league title and a Supercopa, but Mirotic's summer signing pushed him to the end of the interior queue and he had stopped being a rotation regular. Club and player agreed on 16 October to end a deal that ran to 2028, with Alba Berlin reported as his next stop on a contract to 2027, and the roster search for another big man is still open. Nate Reuvers, Neal Sako, Jasiel Rivero and Mouhamadou Gueye are left to handle the paint against Jean-Marc Pansa, Emanuel Cate and Moussa Diagne. It is a depth question rather than a frontline loss, but Albert is one body lighter for a physical matchup two days later.
- Valencia Basket announced on 16 October an agreement with Yankuba Sima to end a contract that ran to 2028.
- Nikola Mirotic's arrival left Sima at the back of the interior rotation.
- Sima is expected to continue at Alba Berlin, with a deal to 2027 reported.
- Valencia are still looking to strengthen their interior game.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter Team PointswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Murcia under 41.5

1.91fair 1.00

Market 52.4% · BetBugs 100%

+47.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Murcia score fewer than 41.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this. Valencia's ACB scoring and home court point to the mid-90s, while Murcia's 86.4-point average in their last five league visits and Valencia's 92.0 points allowed per ACB game point to the mid-80s for the visitors.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia win in about 77 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonValenciaEstimated chance77.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonValenciaEstimated chance75.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonValenciaEstimated chance68.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Valencia and 15 for Murcia, across seasons and competitions.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonValencia +1.5Estimated chance68.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonValenciaEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonValenciaEstimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonValenciaEstimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia cover -1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Valencia and 15 for Murcia, across seasons and competitions.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonValencia -1.5Estimated chance57.9%

Points4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Murcia score fewer than 41.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonMurcia under 41.5Estimated chance100%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 46.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 46.5Estimated chance61.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonValencia over 22.5Estimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Murcia score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostMurcia under 22.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostValencia under 24.5Estimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Murcia score fewer than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · Team PointslostMurcia under 86.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Valencia 94.2, Murcia 84.8. Valencia score more than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 94.3 points scored and 92.0 conceded per game (283/276), including a 100-105 home loss to Forca Lleida on 27 September.
- Murcia's 2026-27 ACB sample is 3 games: 84.7 scored and 89.3 conceded per game (254/268), with a 100-94 home win over Barcelona on 4 October and a 77-84 loss at Girona on 27 September.
- Valencia have lost three straight: 86-89 at Barcelona in the ACB on 11 October, then 97-102 in overtime to Olympiacos and 88-91 to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 13 and 15 October.
- In their last five ACB visits to Valencia, Murcia averaged 86.4 points (84, 86, 84, 96, 82) and won three; the latest was Valencia 110-84 on 8 March 2026.
- Over the tracked box scores, Valencia average 10.1 turnovers in 15 games and shoot 36.5% from three on 417 attempts in 14 games; Murcia average 11.9 turnovers in 15 and 33.8% on 465 attempts in 15.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonValencia over 46.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 13:16

Selected line

181.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 182+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 181.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W110–84

Valenciav

Murcia

Mar 8, 2026·ACB

L92–80

Murciav

Valencia

Dec 21, 2025·ACB

L71–86

Valenciav

Murcia

Apr 5, 2025·ACB

W88–96

Murciav

Valencia

Dec 15, 2024·ACB

L77–84

Valenciav

Murcia

May 25, 2024·ACB

W72–83

Murciav

Valencia

May 22, 2024·ACB

L86–96

Valenciav

Murcia

May 18, 2024·ACB

W83–82

Valenciav

Murcia

Mar 24, 2024·ACB

W77–85

Murciav

Valencia

Dec 10, 2023·ACBOT

L90–82

Murciav

Valencia

Apr 19, 2023·ACB

170.4Avg total points

10.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Valencia

1–233%

Murcia

1–233%

Recent Form

Valencia

9W 6L · last 15

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv88–91 Oct 15EUR

vs Olympiacos97–102 OTOct 13EUR

at Barcelona86–89 Oct 11ACB

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv93–82 Oct 8EUR

at Basket Zaragoza97–82 Oct 4ACB

at Lyon-Villeurbanne105–92 Oct 2EUR

vs Baskonia111–88 Sep 29EUR

vs Forca Lleida100–105 Sep 27ACB

at Besiktas96–94 Sep 25EUR

vs Barcelona86–87 Sep 19SUP

at Barcelona108–84 Jun 24ACB

at Barcelona88–80 Jun 22ACB

vs Barcelona102–75 Jun 20ACB

vs Barcelona112–113 OTJun 18ACB

at Joventut Badalona87–75 Jun 14ACB

Murcia

9W 6L · last 15

at Bamberg86–67 Oct 14CL

vs Tenerife77–90 Oct 11ACB

vs Varese85–58 Oct 7CL

vs Barcelona100–94 Oct 4ACB

at Basquet Girona77–84 Sep 27ACB

vs Barcelona76–100 Jun 6ACB

at Barcelona90–87 Jun 4ACB

vs Barcelona68–91 Jun 2ACB

vs Forca Lleida116–95 May 29ACB

at Basket Zaragoza100–90 May 24ACB

vs Unicaja87–69 May 17ACB

at Baskonia80–87 May 14ACB

vs Basquet Girona86–75 May 9ACB

at Real Madrid123–131 OTMay 3ACB

vs Tenerife86–80 Apr 25ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Valencia

Stats

4–1

Murcia

Valencia leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.1pp

54.3%

+0.1pp

54.2%

3-point %14/15 games+2.7pp

36.5%

+2.7pp

33.8%

Free-throw %11/15 games+32.1pp

44.3%

+32.1pp

76.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s28.9pp apart

64.1%

28.9pp apart

35.2%

Free throws per shot10/15 games3.3pp apart

30.3%

3.3pp apart

33.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+40.1

74.8

+40.1

34.7

Turnovers per game1.8 fewer

10.1

1.8 fewer

11.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.