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Predictions graded

Vaerlose82Bakken Bears123

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–1055%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Vaerlose and Bakken Bears.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Vaerlose	23	18	19	22
Bakken Bears	31	25	33	34

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Bakken Bears are 4-0 in Basketligaen and have won all 10 previous meetings with Vaerlose, who are 1-4.

Bakken should win, with the 40-minute score expected near 95-76. The one price that offers an advantage is the first half under 88.5 combined points at 1.85.

Context

Bakken played in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October; no rotation or availability news is confirmed.

Bakken Bears are combining the Danish league with a six-team FIBA Europe Cup group, so this fixture sits between European rounds. Their Group G opener ended in an 81-91 home defeat to Benfica on 7 October, and they answered with a 78-73 win at Lions de Genève on 14 October, three days before the trip to Vaerlose. That Geneva game was their second competitive match in eight days, both against European opposition, and the domestic fixture follows straight after. How the staff divides minutes between the European and domestic groups has not been announced, so the depth of the rotation for this game is unclear.
- Lions de Genève 73-78 Bakken Bears in FIBA Europe Cup Group G on 14 October.
- Bakken Bears opened Group G with an 81-91 home defeat to Benfica on 7 October.
- Group G also includes Prievidza, Landau Lions and Denizli Basket.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 88.5

1.85fair 1.68

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 59.6%

+5.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. The 1st half has fewer than 88.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this. Bakken are unbeaten domestically and clearly the stronger side on shooting, rebounding and ball security, while Vaerlose have lost four of five league games and concede heavily. Vaerlose's home floor and long rest should keep this closer than the historic head-to-head blowouts, but Bakken's scoring volume points to a comfortable away win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears win in about 94 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBakken BearsEstimated chance93.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 85 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBakken BearsEstimated chance85.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 78 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonBakken BearsEstimated chance77.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose cover +9.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Bakken Bears, across seasons and competitions.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostVaerlose +9.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose cover +27.5 (overtime included) in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · HandicaplostVaerlose +27.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose cover +16.5 in the 1st half in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonVaerlose +16.5Estimated chance72.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonBakken BearsEstimated chance71.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonBakken BearsEstimated chance69.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears cover -2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Vaerlose and 15 for Bakken Bears, across seasons and competitions.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonBakken Bears -2.5Estimated chance68.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose cover +6.5 in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostVaerlose +6.5Estimated chance60.5%

Points5 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears score fewer than 52.5 points in the 1st half in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostBakken Bears under 52.5Estimated chance72.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears score fewer than 100.5 points (overtime included) in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · Team PointslostBakken Bears under 100.5Estimated chance68.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears score fewer than 26.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonBakken Bears under 26.5Estimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose score more than 72.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVaerlose over 72.5Estimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostBakken Bears under 25.5Estimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose score more than 35.5 points in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonVaerlose over 35.5Estimated chance61.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. The 1st half has fewer than 88.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 88.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Bakken Bears score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostBakken Bears under 24.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. The 1st quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 44.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 44.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Vaerlose 76.1, Bakken Bears 95.4. Vaerlose score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Bakken are 4-0 in Basketligaen through 10 October, scoring 101.5 and conceding 77.3 per game (406/309 in four league games).
- Vaerlose are 1-4 in the same league through 8 October, scoring 81.2 and conceding 89.2 per game (406/446 in five games).
- Across 15 tracked box scores Bakken shoot 62.9% on two-pointers versus Vaerlose's 53.1%, and rebound 39.2 to 32.9 per game.
- Vaerlose turn the ball over 17.5 times per game against Bakken's 14.7 over the same 15-game samples.
- Bakken have won all 10 tracked head-to-head meetings; at Vaerlose they won 87-70 (29 Dec 2025), 98-73 (12 Jan 2025) and 103-79 (21 Mar 2024).
- Bakken beat Geneva 78-73 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, 3.8 days before this game, while Vaerlose last played on 8 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonVaerlose over 18.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 174+ points

10 pp below break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L114–70

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Jan 3, 2026·BAS

L70–87

Vaerlosev

Bakken Bears

Dec 29, 2025·BAS

L73–98

Vaerlosev

Bakken Bears

Jan 12, 2025·BAS

L96–81

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Oct 19, 2024·BAS

L103–86

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Apr 15, 2024·BAS

L79–103

Vaerlosev

Bakken Bears

Mar 21, 2024·BAS

L76–98

Vaerlosev

Bakken Bears

Feb 3, 2024·BAS

L118–72

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Nov 5, 2023·BAS

L101–45

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Dec 17, 2022·DEN

L108–78

Bakken Bearsv

Vaerlose

Dec 9, 2022·BAS

175.6Avg total points

29.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Canal Digital Ligaen · Basketligaen - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Vaerlose

1–420%

Bakken Bears

4–0100%

Recent Form

Vaerlose

7W 8L · last 15

at Vejen80–92 Oct 8BAS

at Horsens79–99 Oct 2BAS

vs Randers85–89 OTSep 27BAS

at Copenhagen74–88 Sep 22BAS

at Gladsaxe88–78 Sep 19BAS

vs Bears Academy70–91 Apr 28BAS

at Holbaek-Stenhus89–83 Apr 23BAS

vs BMS Herlev74–97 Apr 19BAS

vs Amager96–90 Apr 12BAS

at Vejen83–86 Apr 8BAS

at Bears Academy61–75 Mar 31BAS

vs Holbaek-Stenhus87–80 Mar 28BAS

vs Bears Academy85–80 Mar 21BAS

at Amager109–107 OTMar 14BAS

at Herlev Wolfpack95–88 Mar 11BAS

Bakken Bears

12W 3L · last 15

at Geneva Lions78–73 Oct 14FIB

vs Randers103–86 Oct 10BAS

vs Benfica81–91 Oct 7FIB

vs Gladsaxe112–75 Sep 30BAS

at Bears Academy108–84 Sep 27BAS

vs Horsens83–64 Sep 24BAS

at Salon Vilpas72–90 Sep 18CL

vs Zwolle89–78 Sep 16CL

at Team FOG Naestved87–81 May 25BAS

vs Team FOG Naestved98–86 May 21BAS

at Team FOG Naestved91–81 May 18BAS

vs Team FOG Naestved92–93 OTMay 14BAS

vs Horsens110–67 May 4BAS

at Horsens103–64 Apr 30BAS

vs Horsens89–79 Apr 27BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Vaerlose

Stats

2–3

Bakken Bears

Bakken Bears leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+9.8pp

53.1%

+9.8pp

62.9%

3-point %+0.7pp

31.6%

+0.7pp

30.9%

Free-throw %+0.7pp

68.2%

+0.7pp

67.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.2pp apart

30.2%

3.2pp apart

33.4%

Free throws per shot5.5pp apart

38.9%

5.5pp apart

33.4%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+6.3

32.9

+6.3

39.2

Turnovers per game2.8 fewer

17.5

2.8 fewer

14.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.