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Predictions graded

Toyama56SeaHorses Mikawa99

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 05:05 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Toyama and SeaHorses Mikawa.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Toyama	18	14	16	8
SeaHorses Mikawa	24	19	36	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Toyama have scored exactly 77 points in each of their three home games, while Mikawa have won four of six on the road — something has to give.

Mikawa's paint scoring and care with the ball make them the likelier winner, but only by about four points. Two prices hold up: Mikawa under 22.5 points in the first quarter at 1.86 and Toyama to win at 2.77. Mikawa's 1.39 to win and 1.4 to lead after 40 minutes do not.

Context

Mikawa's 58.1% two-point shooting and 9.1 turnovers a game over their last 15 outings give them a narrow edge, but Toyama's three 77-point home games this season and their recent road scoring leave the game close; no availability news is established for either side.

Toyama's week began with a 29-point hole in Tokyo. They were still 20 down going into the fourth quarter, then outscored Tokyo Sunrockers 42-16 across the fourth quarter and overtime, with Braian Angola finishing on 41 points and Aamir Simms on 23. Two days later at Altiri Chiba, Darrlyn Willis Jr. scored 27 and a 41.2% three-point night turned a level first quarter into a 94-74 win. Angola and Simms are new arrivals, so this is a rebuilt scoring core finding rhythm early. Mikawa's front line of Davante Gardner, Sean O'Mara and Aaron White will test whether that rhythm survives against length and paint pressure, and a week between games risks cooling a team whose offence has leaned on one hot hand.
- Toyama trailed Tokyo Sunrockers by 29 points on 9 October and won 96-90 in overtime.
- Braian Angola scored 41 points in the comeback, making all 14 of his free throws.
- Two days later Toyama won 94-74 at Altiri Chiba, with Darrlyn Willis Jr. scoring 27 points and adding 10 rebounds.
The Sendai defeat was the heaviest of Mikawa's young season. Coach Ryuzo Anzai said Sendai's individual scoring power broke the game open and that the same closing details have been an issue since opening night. Two days later in Kyoto his side held the hosts to 81 and answered a 13% three-point night by attacking the paint, where Davante Gardner and Sean O'Mara scored against both man and zone. Yudai Nishida said the group executed its transition defence at a higher level and is still building its identity early in the campaign. That pattern matters here: Mikawa can win without perimeter shooting, but they need the defensive intensity of the Kyoto game rather than the Sendai one against a Toyama side that scored 96 and 94 in its past two outings.
- Mikawa lost 105-90 at Sendai on 9 October, their heaviest defeat of the young season.
- They beat Kyoto Hannaryz 89-81 on 11 October, with five Mikawa players reaching double figures.
- Mikawa made 2 of 15 three-point attempts in Kyoto but shot 76.6% from two-point range.
Kennedy and White were part of the Toyama side that climbed into B1, and their return is being treated as a homecoming. The pre-game focus fell on Kennedy's long-running mentorship of Yoshiyuki Nozaki, now a Toyama rotation guard, and on two imports who know the building, the staff and the sets. Familiarity runs both ways: Toyama know exactly what the pair bring at both ends, while Kennedy and White know how Toyama want to play. It sharpens the edge of a game between two teams that have started the season well, without changing either rotation.
- Toyama's club channels welcomed Thomas Kennedy and Aaron White back to the arena before tip-off.
- The pair are remembered in Toyama for helping the club reach B1.
- Kennedy has mentored Toyama guard Yoshiyuki Nozaki, and the club noted that the relationship continues across teams.
The scheme is deliberate. Rather than switching every screen, Toyama's bigs show on the ball and then recover, while weak-side wings tag the roll man and close out to shooters. Yuzo Okada and Daichi Kuzuhara can hold their ground against bigger ball-handlers; when Haruaki Tanaka or Yoshiyuki Nozaki get dragged into a mismatch, a big slides under the rim to help. Against Chiba that produced 13 forced turnovers and only six conceded, and the attack cashed them in. Mikawa's offence scored almost exclusively inside in Kyoto, which attacks exactly this help coverage. If Toyama's rotations are a step late, Gardner and O'Mara will punish them at the rim; if they hold, Mikawa's 2-of-15 perimeter night becomes a real problem.
- Toyama committed six turnovers and forced 13 in the 94-74 win at Altiri Chiba, scoring 21 points off turnovers.
- Toyama show hard on pick-and-rolls and hustle their bigs back to their original assignments instead of switching everything.
- Davie Gomez is Toyama's head coach and Yuzo Okada captains the side.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter Team PointslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

SeaHorses Mikawa under 22.5

1.86fair 1.74

Market 53.8% · BetBugs 57.4%

+3.7ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Mikawa's paint efficiency, low turnover count and recent series dominance point to a slightly higher score, while Toyama's home games have been much lower-scoring than their road outbursts. I expect a close, moderately high-scoring game with Mikawa ahead by about four.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Toyama

2.77fair 2.54

Market 36.1% · BetBugs 39.4%

+3.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. Toyama win in about 39 of 100 games like this, overtime included. Mikawa's paint efficiency, low turnover count and recent series dominance point to a slightly higher score, while Toyama's home games have been much lower-scoring than their road outbursts. I expect a close, moderately high-scoring game with Mikawa ahead by about four.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. Toyama cover +7.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Toyama and 15 for SeaHorses Mikawa, across seasons and competitions.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostToyama +7.5Estimated chance82.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Toyama and 15 for SeaHorses Mikawa, across seasons and competitions.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonSeaHorses Mikawa +1.5Estimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa win in about 61 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSeaHorses MikawaEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonSeaHorses MikawaEstimated chance58.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. Toyama cover +3.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostToyama +3.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonSeaHorses MikawaEstimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. Toyama cover +5.5 (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · HandicaplostToyama +5.5Estimated chance55.5%

Points2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. Toyama score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostToyama over 19.5Estimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.86
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSeaHorses Mikawa under 22.5Estimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 43.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. SeaHorses Mikawa score fewer than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSeaHorses Mikawa under 44.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Toyama 82.9, SeaHorses Mikawa 86.3. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Toyama are 4-3 in the 2026-27 B League and scored exactly 77 points in all three home games from 3-7 October, compared with 85.9 per game overall.
- Mikawa are 4-2 this season, all away, averaging 88.5 points scored and 80.5 allowed; their two defeats conceded 105 and 106.
- Across 15 box scores Mikawa shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and average 9.1 turnovers, against Toyama's 55.2% and 12.3.
- Mikawa have won all 10 listed meetings, including 103-69 on 8 March 2026 and 83-70 the previous day, though Toyama's 2026-27 roster is rebuilt.
- Toyama scored 96-90 in overtime at Tokyo on 9 October and 94-74 at Chiba on 11 October, so their regulation scoring is below those raw totals.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

170.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 171+ points

5 pp below break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 170.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L103–69

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Mar 8, 2026·B L

L83–70

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Mar 7, 2026·B L

L74–65

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Feb 7, 2024·B L

L72–53

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Dec 17, 2023·B L

L90–77

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Dec 16, 2023·B L

L59–90

Toyamav

SeaHorses Mikawa

Oct 25, 2023·B L

L99–73

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Apr 9, 2023·B L

L99–83

SeaHorses Mikawav Toyama

Toyama

Apr 8, 2023·B L

L76–79

Toyamav

SeaHorses Mikawa

Feb 12, 2023·B L

L56–81

Toyamav

SeaHorses Mikawa

Feb 11, 2023·B L

155.1Avg total points

18.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

B League · B.League - Regular Season · Western Conference

#TeamW–LWin %

Toyama

0–0—

SeaHorses Mikawa

0–0—

Recent Form

Toyama

10W 5L · last 15

at Altiri Chiba94–74 Oct 11B L

at Tokyo Sunrockers96–90 OTOct 9B L

vs Kyoto77–81 Oct 7B L

vs Utsunomiya Brex77–99 Oct 4B L

vs Utsunomiya Brex77–67 Oct 3B L

at Shinshu81–99 Sep 27B L

at Shinshu99–85 Sep 26B L

at Hiroshima D.101–91 May 3B L

at Hiroshima D.96–89 May 2B L

vs Akita94–77 Apr 26B L

vs Akita82–72 Apr 25B L

at NeoPhoenix86–94 Apr 22B L

vs Sendai92–89 Apr 19B L

vs Sendai55–72 Apr 18B L

vs Nagoya Fighting Eagles109–86 Apr 15B L

SeaHorses Mikawa

10W 5L · last 15

at Kyoto89–81 Oct 11B L

at Sendai90–105 Oct 9B L

at Osaka101–57 Oct 4B L

at Osaka76–57 Oct 3B L

at Levanga Hokkaido78–77 Sep 27B L

at Levanga Hokkaido97–106 Sep 26B L

vs Ryukyu79–82 May 9B L

vs Ryukyu65–79 May 8B L

vs Koshigaya Alphas75–98 May 3B L

vs Koshigaya Alphas83–75 May 2B L

vs NeoPhoenix76–73 Apr 26B L

vs NeoPhoenix87–67 Apr 25B L

at Osaka84–82 Apr 22B L

at Kyoto94–85 Apr 19B L

at Kyoto89–84 Apr 18B L

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Toyama

Stats

1–4

SeaHorses Mikawa

SeaHorses Mikawa leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+2.9pp

55.2%

+2.9pp

58.1%

3-point %+0.9pp

33.2%

+0.9pp

34.1%

Free-throw %+1.6pp

71.0%

+1.6pp

72.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s8.3pp apart

27.3%

8.3pp apart

35.6%

Free throws per shot9.2pp apart

32.3%

9.2pp apart

23.1%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.9

33.1

+2.9

30.2

Turnovers per game3.2 fewer

12.3

3.2 fewer

9.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.