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Predictions graded

Tortona75Maxima Roma89

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–1121%

Points by period: Tortona and Maxima Roma.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tortona	20	18	24	13
Maxima Roma	22	25	25	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Tortona and Maxima Roma both arrive 1-2 in Serie A, but the venue splits them: Tortona average 93.3 points across three home games this season, while Roma have lost all three away games.

Tortona are the likelier winner, with a 40-minute score of 91.7-86.1 points. Prices are available, but no price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Tortona have averaged 93.3 points in three home games this season, while Roma are 0-3 away across competitions and 2-4 overall; both are 1-2 in Serie A.

Cotelli's team beat city rivals BC Roma 96-95 at the PalaEur on 11 October, then conceded 96 points in a 25-point EuroCup defeat at Tenerife three days later. Roma are 2-4 across Serie A and Europe, a run that also includes a home loss to Napoli and a road defeat at Turk Telekom in which they were outscored 32-12 in the final quarter. Speculation about the bench adds uncertainty over how the staff prepares the trip to Tortona, although no change has been announced.
- Talk about Cotelli's bench surfaced on 17 October, with Roma at 2-4 for the season.
- Cotelli called the 96-71 loss at Tenerife on 14 October a very hard lesson and said his team had to react.
- Roma had beaten BC Roma 96-95 in the city derby on 11 October, in front of 9,312 at the PalaEur.
Tortona opened with a 101-93 home win over Verona behind 23 points from Dante Maddox, then lost heavily at BC Roma on 4 October and 86-93 at Reggio Emilia on 11 October. They also went down 88-68 at Aris Thessaloniki in the EuroCup on 14 October, before Squarcina spoke about showing the team's best face. The visit of Roma starts a stretch at the Nova Arena in which Tortona will try to recover the form of opening night, and the staff's public call adds pressure to deliver immediately.
- Tortona beat Verona 101-93 on 27 September, with Dante Maddox scoring 23 points.
- Tortona lost heavily at BC Roma on 4 October and 86-93 at Reggio Emilia on 11 October.
- Assistant coach Iacopo Squarcina said on 17 October that Tortona must show their best face to relaunch their season.
Roma's three road games have all ended in defeat: Virtus Bologna came from behind to win 98-89, Turk Telekom pulled clear in the last quarter, and Tenerife won by 25. Tortona is another away game, and how Roma handle it will show whether the pattern is about the quality of the opponents or a wider problem on the road.
- Virtus Bologna overturned Roma 98-89 in Bologna on 4 October.
- Turk Telekom broke away from Roma with a 32-12 final quarter on 6 October.
- La Laguna Tenerife beat Roma 96-71 on 14 October, recording 32 assists.
Tortona stay at the Nova Arena for the EuroCup visit of San Pablo Burgos on 21 October, and the club has described the rest of late October as entirely at home. The Roma game therefore opens a stretch without travel between fixtures, which the staff have framed as a chance to rebuild after consecutive league defeats. Whether the home run helps depends on Tortona restoring the scoring balance that produced 101 points on opening night.
- The Roma game opens a late-October stretch the club has listed as entirely at home.
- Tortona's next EuroCup game, against San Pablo Burgos on 21 October, is also at the Nova Arena.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 6 for Maxima Roma, across seasons and competitions.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonTortona +2.5Estimated chance69.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona win in about 67 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTortonaEstimated chance67.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · HandicaplostTortona -1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostTortonaEstimated chance64.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostTortonaEstimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tortona and 6 for Maxima Roma, across seasons and competitions.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTortona -0.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona cover -1.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostTortona -1.5Estimated chance56.6%

Points2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Maxima Roma score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonMaxima Roma under 43.5Estimated chance100%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostTortona over 21.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona score more than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostTortona over 44.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonTortona over 21.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. Tortona score more than 90.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · Team PointslostTortona over 90.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tortona 91.7, Maxima Roma 86.1. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tortona scored 89, 101 and 90 in their three home games this season (19 September–7 October, across the Super Cup, Serie A and EuroCup), averaging 93.3.
- Roma have lost all three away games, scoring 89 at Virtus Bologna (4 October), 77 at Turk Telekom (6 October) and 71 at Tenerife (14 October).
- In their last seven games Tortona average 84.0 points scored and 92.7 conceded; Roma average 82.8 scored and 88.3 conceded in their last six.
- Roma average 15.7 turnovers in six games this season against Tortona's 11.0 in 15, and Tortona shoot 50.5% on two-pointers over 14 games to Roma's 47.2% over six.
- Both are 1-2 in Serie A: Tortona have 257 points for and 294 against, Roma 260 for and 287 against.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 43.5Estimated chance56.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 13:16

Selected line

177.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 178+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 177.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Tortona

1–233%

Maxima Roma

1–233%

Recent Form

Tortona

6W 9L · last 15

at Aris68–88 Oct 14EUR

at Reggiana86–93 Oct 11LEG

vs Le Mans89–83 Oct 7EUR

at BC Roma70–108 Oct 4LEG

at Rigas Zelli84–86 Sep 30EUR

vs Verona101–93 Sep 27LEG

vs Venezia90–98 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia83–89 May 26LEG

vs Venezia89–71 May 24LEG

vs Venezia82–71 May 22LEG

at Venezia75–87 May 19LEG

at Venezia82–89 May 17LEG

at Venezia78–75 May 10LEG

vs Brescia88–80 May 3LEG

at Reggiana69–88 Apr 26LEG

Maxima Roma

2W 4L · last 6

at Tenerife71–96 Oct 14EUR

vs BC Roma96–95 Oct 11LEG

at Turk Telekom77–92 Oct 6EUR

at Virtus Bologna89–98 Oct 4LEG

vs Cluj-Napoca89–55 Sep 30EUR

vs Basket Napoli75–94 Sep 27LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tortona

Stats

3–2

Maxima Roma

6 games

Tortona leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %14/6 games+3.3pp

50.5%

+3.3pp

47.2%

3-point %14/6 games+2.9pp

36.5%

+2.9pp

39.4%

Free-throw %11/3 games+9.8pp

75.3%

+9.8pp

85.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/6 games4.8pp apart

32.0%

4.8pp apart

36.8%

Free throws per shot11/3 games15.6pp apart

31.4%

15.6pp apart

47.0%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game14/6 games+0.3

31.8

+0.3

31.5

Turnovers per game4.7 fewer

11.0

4.7 fewer

15.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.