Serie A2Finished

Predictions graded

Ruvo Di Puglia76Pesaro86

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Points by period: Ruvo Di Puglia and Pesaro.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Ruvo Di Puglia	15	31	17	13
Pesaro	13	27	22	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Unbeaten Pesaro, 3-0 in Serie A2, visit a Ruvo side with one win in three, and the visitors are the pick to take it by roughly 87-82 after 40 minutes.

Ruvo's 31.7 rebounds per game over their last 15 games against Pesaro's 26.6 is why it may stay close. With 242 prices quoted, none stands out as worth backing.

Context

Mack's and Tambone's availability after an interrupted week could shape Pesaro's rotation, and Ruvo's 31.7 rebounds per game against Pesaro's 26.6 gives the hosts a route into the game, but no confirmed condition looks likely to change the matchup.

Mack put up 21 points in Pesaro's opening 96-81 win over Sella Cento on 27 September, the biggest individual haul in that game, and is the team's reference scoring threat on the wing. He then sat out the closing sessions before the Ruvo trip and was called doubtful on 16 October, before boarding the team coach a day later with the squad that will play at PalaColombo. His presence gives Valli a full attacking rotation for the first road game of an unbeaten league start, against a Ruvo side that has already won away in Milan. How heavily he is used after the interrupted week has not been indicated.
- Mack missed the last training sessions before the Ruvo game and was reported as doubtful on 16 October.
- Pesaro's travelling group for Ruvo di Puglia included Mack on 17 October, with him and Matteo Tambone both available to coach Giorgio Valli.
- Mack scored 21 points in Pesaro's 96-81 win over Sella Cento on 27 September.
Tambone carries the captaincy and was fronting the club's public presentation with coach Giorgio Valli and sporting director Nicola Egidio on 1 October, which underlines his standing in the group. Pesaro recovered him for the trip to Ruvo di Puglia and he was part of the squad that travelled on 17 October, alongside Tevin Mack. His return gives Valli a further senior backcourt option for a road game the coach has called insidious, with defensive improvement his stated priority. The size of his role after his spell out of the side has not been indicated, so his minutes may be managed.
- Tambone travelled with Pesaro to Ruvo di Puglia on 17 October and was listed as available for the game.
- Tambone was presented as Pesaro's captain alongside coach Giorgio Valli and sporting director Nicola Egidio before the Cremona fixture on 1 October.
Pesaro have two wins from two in Serie A2, opening with a 96-81 success against Sella Cento in which Mack, Accorsi, Miniotas and Trucchetti all reached double figures, then edging Cremona 87-84. The spread of scorers in the first game points to a rotation that does not depend on one player, which matters with Mack and Tambone coming back from time out. Ruvo, promoted last season, have one win in three and lost their home opener by three points, so the visitors arrive with the better recent record while the PalaColombo crowd gives the hosts a different setting.
- Pesaro beat Sella Cento 96-81 on 27 September, with Tevin Mack scoring 21 points, Matteo Accorsi 18, Regimantas Miniotas 16 and Stefano Trucchetti 14.
- Pesaro beat Cremona 87-84 in the second round on 4 October.
Ruvo's first Serie A2 campaign after promotion began with a 92-70 defeat at Fortitudo Bologna on 27 September and a 83-86 home loss to Cividale on 4 October, before a 96-88 win at Urania Milano on 10 October in which a 36-point third quarter flipped the game and Johnson carried the scoring, with Reale reaching 400 points. That makes the PalaColombo meeting with unbeaten Pesaro the hosts' chance to build a run, on the same floor where they lost by three in their first home game. Whether the Milan performance marks a settled rotation is the open point for Stefano Rajola's side.
- Ruvo turned the game at Urania Milano with 36 points in the third quarter and held off the comeback for a 96-88 win on 10 October.
- Ruvo lost their opener 92-70 at Fortitudo Bologna on 27 September and went down 83-86 at home to Cividale on 4 October.
- Johnson led Ruvo's scoring in Milan and Reale reached 400 points for the club.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Ruvo Di Puglia cover +6.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ruvo Di Puglia and 15 for Pesaro, across seasons and competitions.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonRuvo Di Puglia +6.5Estimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro win in about 66 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPesaroEstimated chance65.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Ruvo Di Puglia and 15 for Pesaro, across seasons and competitions.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonPesaro +1.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonPesaroEstimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostPesaroEstimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostPesaroEstimated chance56.2%

Points2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonPesaro over 20.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 41.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Ruvo Di Puglia 82.1, Pesaro 87.3. Pesaro score more than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Pesaro are 3-0 in Serie A2 2026-27, averaging 88.7 scored and 80.7 conceded, including a 96-81 win at Cento on 27 September.
- Ruvo are 1-2 this season, averaging 83.0 scored and 88.7 conceded, and lost their only home game 83-86 to Cividale on 4 October.
- Across 15 tracked games Pesaro shoot 53.8% inside and 42.8% from three, against Ruvo's 50.9% and 38.4%.
- Pesaro won both 2025-26 meetings: 86-71 at home on 5 October 2025 and 95-90 at Ruvo on 11 January 2026.
- Ruvo average 31.7 rebounds per game to Pesaro's 26.6 over 15 games, giving the hosts a clear second-chance edge.
- Tevin Mack (16.5 points in two games) and captain Matteo Tambone travelled and were listed available on 17 October after Mack's doubtful midweek report.
BetBugs · Team PointslostPesaro over 86.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 13:16

Selected line

169.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 170+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 169.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L90–95

Ruvo Di Pugliav Pesaro

Pesaro

Jan 11, 2026·SER

L86–71

Pesarov

Ruvo Di Puglia

Oct 5, 2025·SER

171Avg total points

10Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Serie A2 · Serie A2 - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Ruvo Di Puglia

1–233%

Pesaro

3–0100%

Recent Form

Ruvo Di Puglia

8W 7L · last 15

at Urania Milano96–88 Oct 10SER

vs Cividale83–86 Oct 4SER

at Fortitudo Bologna70–92 Sep 27SER

vs Roseto94–70 May 27SER

at Roseto76–105 May 24SER

at Roseto84–100 May 22SER

vs Roseto87–83 May 19SER

vs Roseto72–68 May 17SER

vs Pistoia78–80 May 13SER

at Pistoia88–81 OTMay 10SER

at Pistoia78–79 May 8SER

vs Pistoia90–97 May 5SER

vs Pistoia100–85 May 3SER

at Brindisi76–74 Apr 26SER

vs JuVi Cremona100–95 Apr 19SER

Pesaro

9W 6L · last 15

vs Caserta83–77 Oct 11SER

vs JuVi Cremona87–84 Oct 4SER

at Cento96–81 Sep 27SER

vs Rimini78–91 May 19SER

at Rimini96–94 May 16SER

at Rimini75–93 May 14SER

vs Rimini94–79 May 11SER

vs Rimini89–99 May 9SER

at Libertas Livorno75–84 Apr 26SER

vs Forli85–73 Apr 19SER

at Sebastiani Rieti90–112 Apr 12SER

at Basket Torino81–77 Apr 8SER

vs Verona84–83 Apr 3SER

at Pistoia91–89 Mar 29SER

vs Fortitudo Bologna84–86 Mar 25SER

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Ruvo Di Puglia

Stats

1–4

Pesaro

Pesaro leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+2.9pp

50.9%

+2.9pp

53.8%

3-point %+4.4pp

38.4%

+4.4pp

42.8%

Free-throw %+2.1pp

76.9%

+2.1pp

79.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.3pp apart

37.0%

0.3pp apart

37.3%

Free throws per shot1.0pp apart

36.4%

1.0pp apart

35.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+5.1

31.7

+5.1

26.6

Turnovers per game1.6 fewer

12.1

1.6 fewer

10.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.