LNB ÉliteFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Paris90Boulazac75

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions14–478%

Edges1–150%

Points by period: Paris and Boulazac.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Paris	18	23	21	28
Boulazac	24	20	15	16

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Paris are unbeaten in the LNB but play a third game in five days without Ntilikina and possibly Hifi, against a Boulazac side that has had eight days off.

Paris should still win, somewhere near 90-81. Boulazac +11.5 at 1.95 and Paris under 47.5 first-half points at 1.8 are the two prices that hold up.

Context

Paris played on 14 and 16 October and are without Ntilikina for the week, with Hifi doubtful and Warren's status unresolved, while Boulazac last played on 10 October and arrive with a week's rest.

Hifi turned his ankle in the league win over Strasbourg on 11 October, and Paris listed him as a game-time decision before facing Virtus Bologna three days later. He did not play against Virtus and was absent again in Belgrade on 16 October, when Paris lost 90-81. The club has issued no assessment for Sunday, so any return would follow a week without a game. Hifi is the player the Paris attack is built around, and his absence leaves more ball-handling and shot creation to the rest of the backcourt. Whether he plays, and for how long, may only be settled near tip-off.
- Hifi took a knock to his ankle in the 11 October league win over Strasbourg.
- Paris called him a game-time decision before the Virtus Bologna game on 14 October.
- He was missing again when Paris lost 90-81 at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October.
Ntilikina came back to France this summer, almost a decade after leaving for the NBA, and played his first Betclic ÉLITE game for Paris at Nancy on 27 September. On 14 October the club reported a muscle problem that would keep him off the floor for the week, and he missed the Virtus Bologna game that evening and the trip to Crvena Zvezda two days later. Sunday closes that week, so the Boulazac game is expected to bring a third straight absence. Paris have not said whether he will be tested before the game.
- Paris said on 14 October that a muscle problem would keep Ntilikina off the floor for the week.
- He did not play in the EuroLeague game against Virtus Bologna that evening.
- He was also absent from the 90-81 defeat in Belgrade on 16 October.
Warren arrived at Paris this season with almost 400 NBA games behind him and has been used as a scoring wing who can create his own shot. He played in the home loss to Virtus Bologna on 14 October, then was missing from the group beaten 90-81 in Belgrade two days later, with no reason attached to the absence. Paris have published nothing since, leaving his status for the Boulazac game open. If he sits out again, Sunday would be Paris's third game in five days with one fewer option on the wing.
- Warren was not in the Paris group that lost 90-81 in Belgrade on 16 October.
- He had played in the home game against Virtus Bologna two days earlier.
- Paris have given no explanation for the absence and no update since.
Paris are in the middle of a EuroLeague double week: Virtus Bologna at home on 14 October (94-96), Crvena Zvezda away in Belgrade on 16 October (81-90), then Boulazac at home on Sunday afternoon. That is three games in five days for a team that has now lost three in a row in Europe and four of its first five EuroLeague rounds. Maxime Lefèvre, in his first season as head coach, has had to manage minutes across a deep roster in Europe while keeping the domestic campaign going. Boulazac have not played since 10 October, so the rest balance is lopsided; how heavily Lefèvre uses his leading players on Sunday is the open question.
- Paris lost 94-96 at home to Virtus Bologna on 14 October.
- They lost 90-81 at Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade on 16 October, a third straight EuroLeague defeat.
- Boulazac last played on 10 October, beating Bourg-en-Bresse 84-73.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Boulazac +11.5

1.95fair 1.68

Market 51.3% · BetBugs 59.4%

+8.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac cover +11.5 (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this. Paris have the stronger domestic scoring and home advantage, but their third game in five days and Ntilikina's confirmed absence temper that. Boulazac's eight-day rest should help them stay competitive, though their current LNB offense has been modest.

1st Half Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Paris under 47.5

1.80fair 1.59

Market 55.6% · BetBugs 63.1%

+7.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris score fewer than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this. Paris have the stronger domestic scoring and home advantage, but their third game in five days and Ntilikina's confirmed absence temper that. Boulazac's eight-day rest should help them stay competitive, though their current LNB offense has been modest.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris win in about 75 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonParisEstimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonParisEstimated chance72.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostParisEstimated chance66.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonParisEstimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Paris and 15 for Boulazac, across seasons and competitions.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonParis -0.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac cover +11.5 (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · HandicaplostBoulazac +11.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostParisEstimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac cover +3.5 in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonBoulazac +3.5Estimated chance58.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac cover +6.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonBoulazac +6.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonParisEstimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Paris and 15 for Boulazac, across seasons and competitions.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonParis -0.5Estimated chance57.1%

Points6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris score fewer than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonParis under 47.5Estimated chance63.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonParis under 23.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris score fewer than 92.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · Team PointswonParis under 92.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. The 1st half has fewer than 87.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 87.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonBoulazac over 19.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Paris score fewer than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonParis under 23.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 89.6, Boulazac 81.2. Boulazac score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Paris average 93.0 points in three LNB games this season (98 v Strasbourg on 11 Oct, 103 at Le Mans on 4 Oct, 78 at Nancy on 27 Sep).
- Boulazac average 79.3 points in three LNB games this season (84 v Bourg on 10 Oct, 75 at Strasbourg on 3 Oct, 79 v Roanne on 26 Sep) and have allowed 80.3.
- Paris are 3-0 and +21 in the LNB table; Boulazac are 1-2 and -3 after three rounds (table observed 18 Oct).
- Paris played in Belgrade on 16 Oct, their third game in five days, while Boulazac last played on 10 Oct and have had eight days off.
- Ntilikina was confirmed out for the week with a muscle injury on 14 Oct and missed both EuroLeague games; Hifi missed those same two games with an ankle knock but is only doubtful for Sunday.
- Boulazac won two of three meetings last season, including 103-87 in Paris on 1 Feb 2026, but that sample is eight months old and both rosters have changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostBoulazac over 19.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 174+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L87–103

Parisv

Boulazac

Feb 1, 2026·LNB

W73–94

Boulazacv

Paris

Nov 2, 2025·LNB

L96–80

Boulazacv

Paris

Sep 21, 2025·LNB

177.7Avg total points

17.7Avg margin

3meetings

League table

LNB Élite · LNB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Paris

3–0100%

Boulazac

1–233%

Recent Form

Paris

7W 8L · last 15

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet81–90 Oct 16EUR

vs Virtus Bologna94–96 Oct 14EUR

vs Strasbourg98–84 Oct 11LNB

vs Lyon-Villeurbanne96–98 Oct 7EUR

at Le Mans103–101 Oct 4LNB

vs Zalgiris Kaunas82–78 Oct 1EUR

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet79–92 Sep 29EUR

at Nancy78–73 Sep 27LNB

at Panathinaikos72–91 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne81–59 Sep 20LNB

vs Nanterre95–88 Sep 19LNB

vs Monaco92–101 Jun 23LNB

at Monaco84–96 Jun 21LNB

at Monaco88–77 Jun 19LNB

vs Monaco90–102 Jun 17LNB

Boulazac

7W 8L · last 15

vs JL Bourg84–73 Oct 10LNB

at Challans96–107 Oct 6FRE

at Strasbourg75–87 Oct 3LNB

vs Roanne79–81 Sep 26LNB

vs Monaco92–74 May 16LNB

at Limoges72–80 May 7LNB

vs Cholet68–77 May 2LNB

at Dijon85–103 Apr 17LNB

vs Chalon/Saone94–90 Apr 11LNB

at Saint Quentin81–88 Apr 4LNB

vs Strasbourg95–76 Mar 29LNB

at Le Mans94–108 Mar 21LNB

vs Lyon-Villeurbanne72–67 Mar 14LNB

at Gravelines-Dunkerque92–91 Mar 8LNB

vs Le Portel94–64 Feb 14LNB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Paris

Stats

3–2

Boulazac

14 games

Paris leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.6pp

55.8%

+0.6pp

55.2%

3-point %+1.1pp

33.1%

+1.1pp

32.0%

Free-throw %13/14 games+3.6pp

73.9%

+3.6pp

77.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.0pp apart

36.5%

3.0pp apart

33.5%

Free throws per shot13/14 games9.1pp apart

30.5%

9.1pp apart

39.6%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+4.8

36.5

+4.8

31.7

Turnovers per game2.7 fewer

14.9

2.7 fewer

12.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.