NBLFinished

Predictions graded

Melbourne United89Illawarra Hawks91

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–950%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Melbourne United and Illawarra Hawks.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Melbourne United	27	16	22	24
Illawarra Hawks	21	35	22	13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Illawarra arrive in Melbourne with one win in seven and a defence conceding 108.0 points a game, and an expected 102.9 to 94.1 scoreline makes a Melbourne win the likely outcome.

The Hawks' 56.2% two-point shooting over their last 15 games is the argument for a closer night. The one price the evidence favours is Illawarra to score fewer than 48.5 points in the first quarter at 1.85; Melbourne over 104.5 team points at 1.82 and Illawarra over 95.5 at 1.82 do not.

Context

Confirmed absences on both sides: Melbourne are without Chris Goulding after ruling him out on 17 October, and Illawarra have lost Mason Peatling for the season to foot surgery, with Makur Maker's reported larger role the main on-court adjustment.

Goulding has been sidelined since late September, when the club ruled him out of Round 3 with a low-grade calf injury and set a two-week review. That review has now been overtaken by illness, pushing his return to Round 7 and removing him from the Round 5 home game against Illawarra. United have filled the gap with development players Austin Shelley, Jai Fa'Ale and Jensen Bradtke, shifting the backcourt load onto the fit guards. No indication has been given that Goulding will be rushed back earlier, so his absence is expected to cover this fixture.
- Chris Goulding will miss the 18 October game against Illawarra because of a low-grade calf injury.
- Illness has delayed his return and a Round 7 comeback is now targeted.
- Austin Shelley, Jai Fa'Ale and Jensen Bradtke were added to the line-up for the game.
Peatling, a forward, had already been unavailable when Illawarra confirmed on 9 October that he would go under the knife, ending his season. The Hawks responded by signing Makur Maker for the rest of the campaign and have kept working the import market for frontcourt size. Losing Peatling removes a rotation big from the group that must handle Melbourne United inside, and his absence is permanent rather than week to week, so Illawarra's cover has to come from Maker and any new arrival. No replacement signing has been finalised.
- Mason Peatling will miss the remainder of the NBL27 season after deciding to have surgery on a foot injury.
- Illawarra are targeting an import to cover the frontcourt gap left by his absence.
Maker arrived as a 25-year-old South Sudanese-Australian big who won an NBL championship with Sydney as a Next Star and had most recently been playing in Taiwan. He replaced Darius Days, released after a single game, and had to wait for his first appearance. A 17-minute, 18-point outing against Cairns on 11 October drew a public call from Justin Tatum for the staff to keep fitting him in. With Mason Peatling out for the season, Maker is the most obvious internal answer to a thin frontcourt, so a larger role against Melbourne would change how Illawarra match up inside. Tatum has promised opportunity rather than a fixed starting spot, so the size of the increase is unclear.
- Makur Maker signed with Illawarra for the remainder of the season on 1 October, pending league approval.
- Maker scored 18 points in 17 minutes against Cairns on 11 October, a new NBL career high.
- Justin Tatum said the staff must find a way to fit Maker in and give him more minutes.
The Hawks have churned their imports all season, releasing Darius Days after one game and signing Makur Maker before turning to the guard market. Walton won an NBL title with Sydney and has averaged 14.7 points and 5.8 assists across his Australian stints, which is the profile Illawarra have lacked while sharing backcourt duties between Tyler Harvey, Milton Doyle and Will Hickey. Any signing would reshape that rotation rather than fix the frontcourt, and because nothing has been agreed, the group available against Melbourne is expected to stay as it is.
- Illawarra have been gauging the import market for a point guard.
- The Hawks were in active discussions with Derrick Walton Jr, the NBL23 champion and championship series MVP with Sydney.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter Team PointswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Illawarra Hawks under 48.5

1.85fair 1.00

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 100%

+45.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Illawarra Hawks score fewer than 48.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this. Melbourne's better defense and home court give them the clearer route to points, while Illawarra's 108 points allowed per game is the biggest number in the matchup. I expect Illawarra's efficient shooting to keep them competitive into the 90s, but not enough to close the gap created by their road scoring and defense.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Melbourne United and 15 for Illawarra Hawks, across seasons and competitions.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostMelbourne United +2.5Estimated chance76.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United win in about 76 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance75.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance73.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance67.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Melbourne United and 15 for Illawarra Hawks, across seasons and competitions.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonMelbourne United +0.5Estimated chance62.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostMelbourne UnitedEstimated chance57.6%

Points7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Illawarra Hawks score fewer than 48.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonIllawarra Hawks under 48.5Estimated chance100%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. The 1st half has fewer than 102.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 102.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 51.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 51.5Estimated chance61.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United score fewer than 27.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonMelbourne United under 27.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United score fewer than 53.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonMelbourne United under 53.5Estimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Illawarra Hawks score fewer than 24.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks under 24.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Illawarra Hawks score fewer than 48.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostIllawarra Hawks under 48.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. The 1st quarter has fewer than 50.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 50.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. The game has fewer than 200.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 200.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Melbourne United 102.9, Illawarra Hawks 94.1. Melbourne United score fewer than 26.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Melbourne are 3-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.0 points scored and 89.8 allowed over six games through 10 October.
- Illawarra are 1-6, averaging 99.7 scored and 108.0 allowed over seven games through 11 October, with four games of 110+ points conceded.
- Illawarra average 93.0 points in four away games this season, while Melbourne have allowed 102.0 in two home games but 89.8 overall.
- Over 15 tracked games, Illawarra shoot 56.2% inside the arc and 36.2% from three; Melbourne shoot 52.3% and 30.8%.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out for Melbourne on 17 October; Illawarra's Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery confirmed on 9 October.
- Illawarra won the latest meeting 100-91 in Melbourne on 15 February 2026, but Melbourne won the previous home meeting 97-75 on 18 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostMelbourne United under 26.5Estimated chance56.5%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

200.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

43%

Chance of 201+ points

9 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 43%.

Move the line main 200.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 43%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 57%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L91–100

Melbourne Unitedv

Illawarra Hawks

Feb 15, 2026·NBL

W97–75

Melbourne Unitedv

Illawarra Hawks

Dec 18, 2025·NBL

W102–105

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Nov 21, 2025·NBL

L107–93

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Nov 5, 2025·NBL

L114–104

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Mar 23, 2025·NBL

L71–80

Melbourne Unitedv

Illawarra Hawks

Mar 19, 2025·NBL

W77–83

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Mar 16, 2025·NBL

L100–102

Melbourne Unitedv

Illawarra Hawks

Mar 12, 2025·NBL

W88–96

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Mar 8, 2025·NBL

L117–95

Illawarra Hawksv

Melbourne United

Jan 18, 2025·NBL

189.7Avg total points

10.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Melbourne United

3–350%

Illawarra Hawks

1–614%

Recent Form

Melbourne United

8W 7L · last 15

at South East Melbourne104–99 Oct 10NBL

at Adelaide96–91 Oct 7NBL

vs Cairns Taipans95–107 Oct 3NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers82–84 Oct 1NBL

at South East Melbourne86–61 Sep 24NBL

vs Adelaide95–97 Sep 19NBL

at Perth77–95 Mar 7NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers82–68 Mar 5NBL

vs South East Melbourne95–91 Feb 19NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks91–100 Feb 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans89–85 Feb 12NBL

vs Adelaide76–87 Feb 7NBL

at New Zealand Breakers95–97 Jan 30NBL

at Perth74–73 Jan 25NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets98–66 Jan 21NBL

Illawarra Hawks

5W 10L · last 15

vs Cairns Taipans100–110 Oct 11NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers112–122 Oct 9NBL

at South East Melbourne96–113 Oct 4NBL

vs Adelaide114–92 Oct 2NBL

at Sydney100–121 Sep 27NBL

at Brisbane Bullets95–103 Sep 25NBL

at New Zealand Breakers81–95 Sep 20NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers103–70 Feb 18NBL

at Melbourne United100–91 Feb 15NBL

vs Sydney94–120 Feb 13NBL

at New Zealand Breakers95–106 Feb 7NBL

vs Adelaide100–99 Feb 5NBL

vs Perth99–106 Jan 31NBL

at Sydney104–122 Jan 29NBL

at Brisbane Bullets113–75 Jan 26NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Melbourne United

Stats

0–5

Illawarra Hawks

Illawarra Hawks leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+3.9pp

52.3%

+3.9pp

56.2%

3-point %+5.4pp

30.8%

+5.4pp

36.2%

Free-throw %+3.2pp

74.0%

+3.2pp

77.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.5pp apart

31.3%

0.5pp apart

31.8%

Free throws per shot4.5pp apart

30.1%

4.5pp apart

25.6%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+0.5

37.0

+0.5

37.5

Turnovers per game0.4 fewer

12.3

0.4 fewer

11.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.