Serie A2FinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Forli93Sebastiani Rieti71

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Forli and Sebastiani Rieti.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Forli	25	30	13	25
Sebastiani Rieti	11	33	15	12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Unbeaten Rieti take their 3-0 Serie A2 start to Forli, where Forli's 82.0 points per game from three league games will test them.

Rieti have allowed 69.0 points per game in their own three league games. The expected score after 40 minutes is Forli 76.5, Rieti 78.6, so Rieti are narrowly likely to win, overtime included; Rieti at 2.03 is the one price that offers potential value, while Forli at 1.68 to win does not.

Context

Rieti's 3-0 start and Forli's 2-1 record make this a competitive early-season game; Forli are at home after a 94-81 loss at Avellino, and Gaspardo's availability is unsettled after his ejection.

Rieti have opened the season with three wins from three, the latest against Pistoia, and now go on the road chasing a fourth. That run makes them the form side in the matchup and puts the emphasis on Forlì, who have two wins and one defeat from their first three games, to break the streak early. A home loss would leave Forlì with two defeats in three rounds while Rieti stay perfect.
- Rieti beat Pistoia on 11 October to make it three wins from three in Serie A2.
- Rieti travel to Forlì on 18 October aiming for a fourth straight win.
Forlì's first defeat of the campaign came at Avellino, where they missed heavily from the free-throw line and still stayed in contact before losing by 13. The coach has described the night as a source of lessons rather than a crisis, and Berdini's comments point to a squad treating the home game against Rieti as the place to answer it. With only three rounds played, the response matters more for confidence than for the table.
- Forlì lost 94-81 at Avellino on 11 October.
- Forlì's coach said the Avellino defeat gave the team material to grow from.
- Berdini said the group was keen to make amends in the Rieti game.
Gaspardo was thrown out during Forlì's trip to Avellino, a game the visitors lost 94-81 after missing repeatedly from the free-throw line. An ejection can carry an additional ban in Italian league play, and Forlì have not announced whether he will be available on Sunday. Losing him would leave the coach with one fewer option against an unbeaten Rieti side.
- Gaspardo was ejected during Forlì's 94-81 loss at Avellino on 11 October.
- Forlì stayed in the game after the ejection before losing by 13.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sebastiani Rieti

2.03fair 1.77

Market 49.3% · BetBugs 56.6%

+7.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included. Rieti's 3-0 start and slightly better shooting and free-throw numbers give them a narrow road edge, while Forli's home floor and 82-point scoring average should keep it close. Recent meetings at Forli have been tight, so I expect a mid-150s total with Rieti just ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Forli cover +5.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Forli and 15 for Sebastiani Rieti, across seasons and competitions.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonForli +5.5Estimated chance74.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostSebastiani Rieti +1.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti cover +1.5 (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · HandicaplostSebastiani Rieti +1.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti cover +0.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostSebastiani Rieti +0.5Estimated chance56.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.03
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSebastiani RietiEstimated chance56.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Forli cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Forli and 15 for Sebastiani Rieti, across seasons and competitions.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostForli +1.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 54 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostSebastiani RietiEstimated chance54.3%

Points3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti score more than 37.5 points in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSebastiani Rieti over 37.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti score more than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonSebastiani Rieti over 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. The 2nd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 37.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Sebastiani Rieti score more than 77.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · Team PointslostSebastiani Rieti over 77.5Estimated chance56.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forli 76.5, Sebastiani Rieti 78.6. Forli score fewer than 78.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Rieti are 3-0 in Serie A2 through 11 October, scoring 79.3 and allowing 69.0 per game; Forli are 2-1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 78.3.
- In 15 box scores, Forli shoot 52.8% on two-pointers, 33.1% on three-pointers and 65.7% from the free-throw line; Rieti shoot 54.8%, 32.8% and 69.7%.
- Rieti have won four of the last five meetings, including 86-82 in overtime at Forli on 17 January 2026 and 65-64 at Forli on 5 January 2025.
- Forli average 10.8 turnovers and 31.2 rebounds over 15 games; Rieti average 12.7 turnovers and 31.9 rebounds.
- Both teams last played on 11 October and have had seven days' rest.
BetBugs · Team PointslostForli under 78.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 13:16

Selected line

156.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 157+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.78 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 156.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L82–86

Forliv

Sebastiani Rieti

Jan 17, 2026·SEROT

L90–60

Sebastiani Rietiv Forli

Forli

Oct 5, 2025·SER

L79–68

Sebastiani Rietiv Forli

Forli

Apr 6, 2025·SER

L64–65

Forliv

Sebastiani Rieti

Jan 5, 2025·SER

W83–73

Forliv

Sebastiani Rieti

Feb 11, 2024·SER

150Avg total points

11.2Avg margin

5meetings

League table

Serie A2 · Serie A2 - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Forli

2–167%

Sebastiani Rieti

3–0100%

Recent Form

Forli

6W 9L · last 15

at Avellino Basket81–94 Oct 11SER

vs Cento80–73 Oct 3SER

at Cividale85–68 Sep 26SER

vs Fortitudo Bologna65–96 Apr 26SER

at Pesaro73–85 Apr 19SER

vs Libertas Livorno91–86 Apr 12SER

at Verona56–89 Apr 8SER

vs Roseto89–81 Apr 4SER

at Scafati72–96 Mar 29SER

vs Avellino Basket73–71 Mar 25SER

at Ruvo Di Puglia84–87 Mar 22SER

at Cividale84–80 Mar 7SER

vs Brindisi74–79 Feb 25SER

at Rimini63–78 Feb 15SER

at Pistoia73–78 Feb 8SER

Sebastiani Rieti

8W 7L · last 15

vs Pistoia78–70 Oct 11SER

at Vigevano79–64 Oct 4SER

vs Caserta81–73 Sep 27SER

vs Cividale78–90 May 15SER

vs Cividale73–82 May 13SER

at Cividale73–79 May 10SER

at Cividale70–69 May 8SER

vs Basket Torino80–66 Apr 26SER

at Urania Milano83–88 Apr 18SER

vs Pesaro112–90 Apr 12SER

at Libertas Livorno72–80 Apr 8SER

vs Scafati76–81 Apr 4SER

at Ruvo Di Puglia84–75 Mar 29SER

vs JuVi Cremona80–53 Mar 25SER

at Brindisi81–90 Mar 21SER

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Forli

Stats

2–3

Sebastiani Rieti

Sebastiani Rieti leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.0pp

52.8%

+2.0pp

54.8%

3-point %+0.3pp

33.1%

+0.3pp

32.8%

Free-throw %+4.0pp

65.7%

+4.0pp

69.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s—

32.6%

—

32.6%

Free throws per shot5.8pp apart

31.8%

5.8pp apart

37.6%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.7

31.2

+0.7

31.9

Turnovers per game1.9 fewer

10.8

1.9 fewer

12.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.