Primera FEBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Estudiantes86Palencia77

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Estudiantes and Palencia.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Estudiantes	21	14	27	24
Palencia	22	26	12	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two 3-0 teams meet in Madrid with the early league lead at stake.

Estudiantes' shooting and home form make them narrow favourites over 40 minutes, with a score around 80.3 to 77.0. The price worth noting is under 161.5 combined points at 1.82; Estudiantes over 81.5 points at 1.69 and Palencia over 79.5 points at 1.70 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Detailed commentary is unavailable.

Zurbriggen was named captain for 2026-27 after succeeding Jayson Granger and was expected to run the offence. On 30 September the club announced a bacterial infection in his right knee, said he had begun treatment and left the timetable open. The same day it moved for Leo Westermann on a two-month deal, and Micah Speight has taken on much of the ball-handling in the opening three wins. Estudiantes have adapted, but the captain's absence leaves Toni Ten with a thinner playmaking group against the best-rated defence in the league. Whether Zurbriggen is ready for this game has not been established.
- The club announced a bacterial infection in his right knee on 30 September and ruled him out temporarily.
- He had started treatment, with his recovery to determine the timetable for a return.
- He succeeded Jayson Granger as club captain ahead of the season.
Palencia have had a settled start: Toni Naspler was the only absentee for the round-two home game, and on 2 October the club said he was still working through muscle discomfort. By the time of the trip Lezkano was talking about a full squad, and his team trained at home on 17 October before heading to Madrid. A clean bill of health matters because Lezkano said this month that he does not intend to carry 13 players in the rotation. The starting five and final roster for this game had not been published before tip-off.
- Lezkano said his whole squad was available for the visit to Estudiantes.
- Palencia trained in Palencia on 17 October before making the trip to Madrid.
- Toni Naspler had been the only absentee for the round-two home game and was still recovering from muscle discomfort in early October.
Estudiantes and Palencia are two of four teams still unbeaten, and the winner of this game keeps a perfect record. Palencia's run includes a 91-76 home win over Menorca on 9 October that stayed close for three quarters before the hosts pulled away late. Estudiantes closed round three with a home victory on 11 October and lead the early table on point differential, with Palencia next. Three games is a short sample, and neither side has yet faced an opponent of the other's level this season.
- Both clubs went into round four with perfect 3-0 records.
- Palencia beat Menorca 91-76 on 9 October, pulling away in the final quarter.
- Estudiantes won their round-three game at home on 11 October, a week before this fixture.
Westermann, a French guard, signed for two months after Zurbriggen's knee infection left Estudiantes without their captain at the point. He had been central to Ourense's promotion to the ACB and was presented as a short-term fix rather than a permanent change. For this game he gives Toni Ten an experienced ball-handler alongside Micah Speight, who has run much of the offence early in the season. The open question is how the club handles the position when the two-month deal ends and whether Zurbriggen returns before then.
- Estudiantes announced a two-month deal for the French guard on 30 September.
- The club said the signing was made to reinforce the playmaking after Zurbriggen's temporary absence.
- Westermann joined from Ourense, where he had been a key figure in the club's promotion to the ACB.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 161.5

1.82fair 1.73

Market 54.9% · BetBugs 58%

+3.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. The game has fewer than 161.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this. Estudiantes have the stronger home profile and the more efficient offence so far, but Palencia's defence has been the best in the league and the recent meetings have been difficult for the hosts. Both teams are 3-0, so the small margin comes from venue and shot quality rather than current form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Estudiantes cover +5.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Estudiantes and 15 for Palencia, across seasons and competitions.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostEstudiantes +5.5Estimated chance81.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Estudiantes win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEstudiantesEstimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Palencia cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Estudiantes and 15 for Palencia, across seasons and competitions.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostPalencia +2.5Estimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Estudiantes are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonEstudiantesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Estudiantes are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostEstudiantesEstimated chance55.5%

Points2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 40.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.82
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. The game has fewer than 161.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 161.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Palencia score fewer than 79.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · Team PointswonPalencia under 79.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. The 1st quarter has fewer than 40.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 40.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. The 1st half has fewer than 80.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 80.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Estudiantes 80.3, Palencia 77.0. Palencia score fewer than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Estudiantes are 3-0 in Primera FEB through 11 Oct, averaging 88.0 points scored and 71.3 allowed (106-76 vs Gipuzkoa, 80-73 at Zamora, 78-65 vs Caja 87).
- Palencia are 3-0 through 9 Oct, averaging 85.3 scored and 70.7 allowed, including a 95-69 win at Albacete on 26 Sep.
- Across 14 tracked box scores Estudiantes shot 58.1% on two-pointers and 37.5% on three-pointers; Palencia shot 50.1% and 36.0% across 15.
- Palencia won both 2025-26 league meetings: 94-72 in Madrid on 8 Feb 2026 and 83-52 at home on 22 Nov 2025.
- Estudiantes are 2-0 at home this season at 92.0 points per game; Palencia have played one away game, scoring 95 at Albacete.
- Estudiantes captain Fernando Zurbriggen has been sidelined since late September with a knee infection, while Palencia's coach said on 16 Oct he had a full squad.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostPalencia under 39.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 13:16

Selected line

161.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

42%

Chance of 162+ points

13 pp below break-even

Over 1.82 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 42%.

Move the line main 161.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 42%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 58%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L72–94

Estudiantesv

Palencia

Feb 8, 2026·PRI

L83–52

Palenciav

Estudiantes

Nov 22, 2025·PRI

W104–98

Estudiantesv

Palencia

Mar 16, 2025·LEB

W80–87

Palenciav

Estudiantes

Oct 19, 2024·LEB

L74–66

Palenciav

Estudiantes

May 5, 2023·LEB

L73–83

Estudiantesv

Palencia

Jan 8, 2023·LEB

W89–62

Estudiantesv

Palencia

Jun 18, 2022·LEB

L71–73

Estudiantesv

Palencia

May 8, 2022·LEB

L66–62

Palenciav

Estudiantes

Feb 13, 2022·LEB

154.3Avg total points

13Avg margin

9meetings

League table

Primera FEB · Primera FEB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Estudiantes

3–0100%

Palencia

3–0100%

Recent Form

Estudiantes

12W 3L · last 15

vs Gipuzkoa106–76 Oct 11PRI

at Zamora80–73 Oct 3PRI

vs Caja 8778–65 Sep 27PRI

vs Leyma Coruna97–100 OTJun 7PRI

vs Oviedo79–71 Jun 6PRI

at Alicante113–72 May 22PRI

vs Alicante74–67 May 17PRI

vs Alicante93–77 May 15PRI

at Fuenlabrada70–77 May 8PRI

vs Palmer Basket73–70 May 3PRI

at Obradoiro CAB79–89 Apr 26PRI

vs Melilla86–73 Apr 22PRI

vs Oviedo75–69 Apr 19PRI

at Tizona Burgos96–76 Apr 10PRI

vs Cartagena90–84 Apr 5PRI

Palencia

11W 4L · last 15

vs Menorca91–76 Oct 9PRI

vs Cordoba70–67 Oct 2PRI

at Albacete95–69 Sep 26PRI

at Leyma Coruna81–92 Jun 6PRI

vs Fuenlabrada76–51 May 29PRI

at Fuenlabrada72–78 May 24PRI

at Fuenlabrada81–88 May 22PRI

vs Fuenlabrada83–79 May 17PRI

vs Fuenlabrada90–52 May 15PRI

vs Estela100–70 May 8PRI

at Cartagena82–72 May 2PRI

vs Fibwi Palma92–70 Apr 25PRI

at Ourense93–90 Apr 21PRI

at Hestia Menorca72–67 Apr 18PRI

at Obradoiro CAB53–81 Apr 5PRI

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Estudiantes

14 games

Stats

2–2

Palencia

The teams split the 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+8.0pp

58.1%

+8.0pp

50.1%

3-point %+1.5pp

37.5%

+1.5pp

36.0%

Free-throw %+4.5pp

72.1%

+4.5pp

76.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.7pp apart

41.4%

2.7pp apart

38.7%

Free throws per shot0.3pp apart

35.7%

0.3pp apart

36.0%

Possession· 0–1

Rebounds per game+1.6

33.9

+1.6

35.5

Turnovers per game—

0.0

—

0.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.