LPBFinished

Predictions graded

Braga91Vitoria72

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–192%

Points by period: Braga and Vitoria.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Braga	20	23	26	22
Vitoria	12	18	22	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Braga host Vitoria with both teams 1-1 in the LPB, and the tension is a fixture the home side has won each time lately: Vitoria 82-72 in December, then Braga 101-84 and 76-71.

Braga look the likelier winners, with a 40-minute score of about 87.7 to 80.2. Prices are quoted across the main and period markets, but these forecasts are low confidence and none is worth backing.

Context

No availability factor is established for either team and both last played more than seven days before tip-off, so the only sporting condition worth weighing is the home-side pattern across the three most recent meetings.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result10 of 10 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga win in about 72 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBragaEstimated chance72.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBragaEstimated chance70.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBragaEstimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Braga and 15 for Vitoria, across seasons and competitions.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonBraga +0.5Estimated chance61.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonBragaEstimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Braga and 15 for Vitoria, across seasons and competitions.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonBraga -0.5Estimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga cover -5.5 (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · HandicapwonBraga -5.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonBragaEstimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga cover -2.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonBraga -2.5Estimated chance56.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonBragaEstimated chance56%

Points2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Vitoria score fewer than 82.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVitoria under 82.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. Braga score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonBraga over 21.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Braga 87.7, Vitoria 80.2. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 42.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Braga are 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 105 and 83 (94.0 per game) while allowing 71 and 96 (83.5) on 11 and 3 October 2026.
- Vitoria are also 1-1 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 71 and 83 (77.0 per game) while allowing 87 and 78 (82.5) on 10 and 3 October 2026.
- In the previous 13 games across the 2025-26 LPB and Taca da Liga, Braga averaged 77.5 points for and 85.8 against, while Vitoria averaged 83.5 and 89.3.
- Over 15 games, Braga shot 31.1% from three on 431 attempts and 72.9% from the free-throw line on 343 attempts; Vitoria shot 28.9% on 380 threes and 60.9% on 427 free throws.
- Braga won two of the three latest meetings, 101-84 at home on 4 April 2026 and 76-71 at home on 8 March 2026; Vitoria won 82-72 at home on 20 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 42.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

170.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 171+ points

9 pp below break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 170.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W101–84

Bragav

Vitoria

Apr 4, 2026·LPB

W76–71

Bragav

Vitoria

Mar 8, 2026·TAC

L82–72

Vitoriav

Braga

Dec 20, 2025·LPB

162Avg total points

10.7Avg margin

3meetings

League table

LPB · LPB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Braga

1–150%

Vitoria

1–150%

Recent Form

Braga

5W 10L · last 15

vs Portimonense105–71 Oct 11LPB

at Ovarense83–96 Oct 3LPB

vs Benfica79–94 May 13LPB

at Benfica72–90 May 9LPB

vs Imortal63–76 Apr 30TAC

at Ovarense74–67 Apr 25LPB

vs FC Porto68–82 Apr 18LPB

at Benfica77–108 Apr 11LPB

vs Vitoria101–84 Apr 4LPB

at Imortal73–80 Mar 28LPB

at Benfica63–104 Mar 25TAC

vs Sporting CP87–96 Mar 21LPB

at Oliveirense77–87 Mar 14LPB

vs Vitoria76–71 Mar 8TAC

at Esgueira97–76 Feb 21LPB

Vitoria

6W 9L · last 15

vs Ovarense71–87 Oct 10LPB

at CAB Madeira83–78 Oct 3LPB

vs Oliveirense84–74 Apr 25LPB

at Vasco Da Gama89–96 Apr 18LPB

vs Esgueira93–87 Apr 11LPB

at Braga84–101 Apr 4LPB

vs Galitos Barreiro84–86 Mar 28LPB

vs Ovarense75–81 Mar 25TAC

at Ovarense91–75 Mar 21LPB

vs FC Porto69–115 Mar 14LPB

at Braga71–76 Mar 8TAC

at Benfica79–111 Feb 14LPB

vs CA Queluz103–96 Feb 7LPB

vs Imortal82–77 Jan 31LPB

vs Oliveirense81–86 Jan 28TAC

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Braga

Stats

3–2

Vitoria

Braga leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+3.6pp

47.0%

+3.6pp

50.6%

3-point %+2.2pp

31.1%

+2.2pp

28.9%

Free-throw %+12.0pp

72.9%

+12.0pp

60.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.1pp apart

34.0%

7.1pp apart

26.9%

Free throws per shot7.8pp apart

34.5%

7.8pp apart

42.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.3

36.4

+0.3

36.7

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

15.1

0.2 fewer

15.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.