Liga ACBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Basket Zaragoza109Forca Lleida98

Sun 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Basket Zaragoza and Forca Lleida.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Basket Zaragoza	22	38	24	25
Forca Lleida	23	20	31	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Zaragoza are 2-1 and Lleida 1-2, but Lleida have already scored 105 and 89 away this season, so this may stay closer than the 92.0-86.9 expected score.

Zaragoza should still edge it; at 1.38 the home win offers little. The only price with a value case is under 46.5 combined points in the third quarter at 1.84.

Context

Both frontcourts are short: Lleida lost Atoumane Diagne for the season in mid-September and Zaragoza have had no minutes this season from Jilson Bango. Lleida also arrive on two straight defeats while Zaragoza are still looking for a first home win.

Bango joined in early October already carrying the injury, so Laurynas Birutis and Gabriel Olaseni have shared the centre minutes in front of him. Zaragoza's frontcourt depth is the area Lleida can attack with Zacharie Perrin and Kur Kuath, and Bango would have been the third specialist five. He himself spoke of one or two months, the coach of a spell that could reach four, so the expectation for Sunday is another game without him rather than a late call.
- Jilson Bango was presented in his second spell at Casademont Zaragoza on 5 October.
- Bango said he could not give a date for his return, mentioning one month, two months or longer.
- Gonzalo García de Vitoria said on 18 September that the recovery would take months, without fixing whether two, three or four.
- Bango has not appeared in any of Zaragoza's three Liga ACB games this season.
Diagne was hurt before the campaign started, so Lleida have played the opening rounds without a second specialist five behind Zacharie Perrin and Kur Kuath. Majauskas's exit left Melvin Ejim and John Shurna as the other interior options, and the club have since looked at reinforcements from outside. Against a Zaragoza side that leans on Birutis and Olaseni inside, foul trouble or a quiet night from Perrin would leave Gerard Encuentra with very little size to defend the paint.
- Atoumane Diagne's injury was reported in mid-September as ruling him out for the entire season.
- With Diagne out, Lleida's available interiors were Zacharie Perrin and Kur Kuath, with Melvin Ejim and John Shurna able to play at power forward.
- Aurimas Majauskas left the squad by mutual agreement in late September, further trimming the frontcourt.
The arrival comes with Lleida thin inside after Atoumane Diagne's season-ending injury and Aurimas Majauskas's departure, leaving Zacharie Perrin and Kur Kuath as the specialist fives. N'Guessan is a Dutch interior who played for the club in the second tier five years ago, and he has been practising with Gerard Encuentra's group rather than being presented as a signing. No contract, registration or place in the Zaragoza trip has been confirmed, so he is a possible addition rather than part of the rotation.
- Lleida announced on 13 October that Lucas N'Guessan would join the team's training sessions and arrive in the city that evening.
- N'Guessan already knows the club from the 2020-21 season in the second tier.
- He was training with the group at Barris Nord on 16 October.
Zaragoza's only home game so far was the Valencia defeat, when a 7-25 run after half-time undid a decent opening period. Their two wins came on the road, at Tenerife and Coruña, so the Príncipe Felipe has not yet produced a result this season. García de Vitoria framed the Lleida visit as the chance to end that run, while Lleida's only win came away at Valencia, which makes home advantage an open question rather than a settled edge.
- Zaragoza lost 82-97 at home to Valencia Basket on 4 October.
- They won 81-80 at La Laguna Tenerife and 92-71 at Leyma Coruña in their other two rounds.
- García de Vitoria said he has not won at the Príncipe Felipe as head coach and that beating Lleida there should serve as motivation.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 46.5

1.84fair 1.61

Market 54.3% · BetBugs 62%

+7.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 46.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Zaragoza's home setting and stronger three-point shooting should give them the higher score, while Lleida's strong two-point shooting and free-throw rate should keep them close. The recent head-to-head games in Zaragoza also point to Lleida scoring around 90, so I put the hosts in the low 90s and the visitors in the high 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Basket Zaragoza and 15 for Forca Lleida, across seasons and competitions.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostBasket Zaragoza +5.5Estimated chance81.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza win in about 66 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBasket ZaragozaEstimated chance65.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBasket ZaragozaEstimated chance63.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Forca Lleida cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Basket Zaragoza and 15 for Forca Lleida, across seasons and competitions.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostForca Lleida +3.5Estimated chance60.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBasket ZaragozaEstimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonBasket ZaragozaEstimated chance56%

Points3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.84
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 46.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 46.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Forca Lleida score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostForca Lleida over 20.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Forca Lleida score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostForca Lleida under 22.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostBasket Zaragoza under 23.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Basket Zaragoza score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonBasket Zaragoza over 22.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Basket Zaragoza 92.0, Forca Lleida 86.9. Forca Lleida score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Zaragoza are 2-1 in the 2026-27 ACB, averaging 85.0 points scored and 82.7 allowed, after beating Leyma Coruna 92-71 on 10 October.
- Lleida are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 91.7 scored and 95.0 allowed, with 105-100 at Valencia on 27 September and 89-91 at Obradoiro on 11 October.
- Over 15 tracked games, Zaragoza shoot 35.9% from three and 53.6% from two, while Lleida shoot 31.3% from three and 58.0% from two.
- In four meetings since September 2024, Zaragoza have scored 107, 87, 91 and 101 points (one overtime) against Lleida; Lleida scored 91 in both games at Zaragoza.
- Zaragoza had 7.75 days of rest and Lleida 7.0 before this game, and Lleida's Atoumane Diagne was ruled out for the season in mid-September while Zaragoza's Jilson Bango has not played this season during his injury recovery.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonForca Lleida over 42.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 18, 03:55

Selected line

181.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 182+ points

6 pp below break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 181.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W107–91

Basket Zaragozav

Forca Lleida

Apr 11, 2026·ACB

W77–87

Forca Lleidav

Basket Zaragoza

Jan 4, 2026·ACB

L97–91

Forca Lleidav

Basket Zaragoza

Mar 9, 2025·ACB

W101–91

Basket Zaragozav

Forca Lleida

Sep 29, 2024·ACBOT

185.5Avg total points

10.5Avg margin

4meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Basket Zaragoza

2–167%

Forca Lleida

1–233%

Recent Form

Basket Zaragoza

6W 9L · last 15

at Leyma Coruna92–71 Oct 10ACB

vs Valencia82–97 Oct 4ACB

at Tenerife81–80 Sep 27ACB

at Breogan95–94 May 29ACB

vs Valencia86–98 May 26ACB

vs Murcia90–100 May 24ACB

at Manresa83–101 May 16ACB

vs Granada74–85 May 9ACB

at Basquet Girona81–90 May 2ACB

at Gran Canaria78–74 Apr 18ACB

vs Forca Lleida107–91 Apr 11ACB

vs Barcelona86–92 Apr 5ACB

at Baskonia88–115 Apr 1ACB

at Tenerife76–99 Mar 29ACB

vs San Pablo Burgos108–98 Mar 21ACB

Forca Lleida

5W 10L · last 15

at Obradoiro CAB89–91 Oct 11ACB

vs San Pablo Burgos81–94 Oct 4ACB

at Valencia105–100 Sep 27ACB

at Murcia95–116 May 29ACB

vs MoraBanc Andorra88–116 May 24ACB

vs Gran Canaria75–72 May 17ACB

at Breogan87–114 May 13ACB

vs Bilbao90–81 May 10ACB

at San Pablo Burgos91–99 May 2ACB

at Unicaja72–91 Apr 25ACB

vs Barcelona90–80 Apr 19ACB

at Basket Zaragoza91–107 Apr 11ACB

vs Tenerife103–101 Apr 5ACB

at Granada89–92 Mar 28ACB

vs Joventut Badalona86–88 Mar 22ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Basket Zaragoza

Stats

3–2

Forca Lleida

Basket Zaragoza leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.4pp

53.6%

+4.4pp

58.0%

3-point %+4.6pp

35.9%

+4.6pp

31.3%

Free-throw %+0.8pp

75.2%

+0.8pp

74.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.9pp apart

31.9%

4.9pp apart

27.0%

Free throws per shot4.3pp apart

32.1%

4.3pp apart

36.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.1

33.0

+0.1

32.9

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

14.0

0.9 fewer

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.